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Eu-Med Agpol Conclusions

Eu-Med Agpol Conclusions. Preliminary Version 16 Mars 2007. What we have done?. Combining models and qualitative/chain specific analysis in an integrated manner to assess the impact on the EU of the liberalization between the EU and the Med countries : Models :

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Eu-Med Agpol Conclusions

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  1. Eu-Med AgpolConclusions Preliminary Version 16 Mars 2007

  2. What we have done? • Combining models and qualitative/chain specific analysis in an integrated manner to assess the impact on the EU of the liberalization between the EU and the Med countries : • Models : • EU-MED-ROW level : CAPRI, Gravity Model • Country level : Morocco (all sectors,CGE, detailed ag.sector), Turkey (Ag.sector) • EU Regional Nuts II Level: Regional Vulnerability Index + CAPRI • Qualitative analysis : • Experts surveys for fresh fruit and veg and olive oil in 5 countries • + Specific studies on processed products in EU and Med countries

  3. Key Findings 1) In general, impacts of EU liberalization of trade in fruits, vegetables, and olive oil with Mediterranean countries are expected to be small( Expert Surveys and CAPRI) 2) Even though the overall impacts of partial or full trade liberalization are expected to be small, there are certain EU regions and certain products for which there will be important impacts. (RVI +CAPRI), Processed Tomato sector industry

  4. Key Findings 3) Trade liberalization between the EU and Mediterranean countries will result in winners in losers in the Mediterranean countries just as in the EU (Morocco and Turkey Models).

  5. Key Findings 4) We see that there can be some interaction between EU-Med liberalization and possible WTO liberalization, with some potential preference erosion for the Med countries.(CAPRI)

  6. Key Findings 5) The expert opinion (Delphi) analysis demonstrates clearly that producers and exporters are likely to respond to incentives that would come about due to trade liberalization. The WP5 expert opinion analysis turned out to be a rich component of our project.

  7. Key Findings 6) Trade among the Mediterranean countries and the EU is not only constrained by quotas and tariffs, but also by other factors such as distance, production cost, and other factors. (Gravity Model Analysis) 7) Consumer impacts are also important to consider in evaluating trade policy changes. (CAPRI + Morocco and Turkey models)

  8. Key Findings 8) There is a large heterogeneity among Mediterranean countries in terms of constraints to their access to EU markets – both tariff and non-tariff. (Delphi + Gravity Model) 9) There is also a large heterogeneity among fruit and vegetable protection across fruit and vegetable products as illustrated in the outputs of our WP3.(EU Protection Analysis)

  9. Key Findings 10) To do this kind of analysis, it is absolutely essential to have micro based value chain type analyses plus Sector and General Equilibrium analyses. • We need to micro-level analyses to get the detail and depth needed for disaggregated products like fruits, vegetables, and olive oil. • We need the more aggregate analyses to capture substitution in production and consumption.

  10. Some examples of Resultsfor the Fruit and Vegetables Sector

  11. WP5- Expert Surveys in Five countries (Delphi Method) Fruit and Veg Exports Potential in case of Liberalization

  12. Liberalization Scenarios • Selected countries and products • Liberalization scenarios, on the basis of detailed protection analysis done in WP3 • Partial Lib : increase in quotas, in windows and reduction in tariffs (consistent with the EuroMed negociations “road map”) : Ad’hoc rules depending of current level of tarifs, level of exports/quotas, etc. • Full Liberalization : remove quotas, tariffs and entry prices • Experts surveys about the potential and the constraints.

  13. Selected countries and products

  14. Countries Surveys

  15. Countries Surveys

  16. Limiting factors : • Egypt : • Delivered product cost • Infrastructure constraints (post harvest facilities, cooling, transport) • Quality (pesticide use, variety)/ Compliance with EU standards • Morocco: • Water (tomatoes) • Production efficiency, yields (clementines) • Israel: • Small impacts of production constraints • More impacted by EU tariffs and minimum entry prices • Turkey : • Quality n°1, tariffs n°2, organizational problems

  17. Gravity Model Results • Impact of tariff differ from one country to another: • Israel, Egypt : High impact of tariff • Morocco : intermediate • Turkey : Lower impact • Tariffs are not the only constraint to trade : • Distance • Production costs • Other constraints (could be Infrastructure, quality,etc..) • Israel • Morocco • Egypt, Turkey • Syria, Lebanon, Jordan • Tunisia • Algeria

  18. WP2+WP8-Regional Vulnerability Indicators Vulnerability of Fruit and Veg European Region

  19. RVI

  20. Regional Vulnerability Index and Per Capita GDP 30,000 Emilia-Romagna Trentino Piemonte Rhône-Alpes Lazio 25,000 Veneto Liguria Toscana PACA Pays Loire Midi-Pyrénées GDP per capita (€) Bretagne Cataluna 20,000 Average 30 regions Languedoc-Roussillon Aragon Valencia Sterea Ellias Puglia 15,000 Sicilia Castilla la Mancha Murcia Calabria Campania Andalucia Alentejo-Algarve Ipiros-Peloponissos Thessalia 10,000 Norte-Douro Centro-Ribatejo Anatoliki Makedonia 5,000 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00 7,00 8,00 9,00 10,00 RVI Source: EU-MED Agpol, Rastoin- Montigaud 2006

  21. CAPRI Regional Impact Results • F&Veg Production Value and Income per Region. • Changes between liberalization scenario vs baseline are very small. • Compare the Regional Baseline/ base period data (Change for the period 2001-03 to 2013 resulting from exogeneous parameter : GDP, technical progress, policies ) to the RVI.

  22. Comparing Ranking of the EU F&Veg Regions

  23. Results • 8 high-vulnerability regions (Capri index represented by a decrease between -20% and -60% in value production of fruit and vegetables for the period 2001-2013 and RVI between 0.4 and 1.6):Thessalia, Alentejo, Anatoliki-Makedonia-Thraki, Toscana, Sicilia, Algarve, Castilla-La Mancha, Aragon. • 3 mid-vulnerability regions(Capri between – 50 % and 0 % and RVI between 0 and 0.4):Azores, Campania, Cataluna. • 12 low-vulnerability regions(Capri between 0 and + 60 %, RVI between 0 and 0.4):Piemonte, Canarias, Lazio, Andalucia, Murcia, Trentino-Alto Adige, Emilia-Romagna, Languedoc-Roussillon, Calabria, Bretagne, Midi-Pyrénées, Rhône-Alpes. • 11 high-uncertainly regions resulting from the divergence of Capri and RVI:Lisboa, Liguria, Puglia, PACA, Veneto, Norte (P), Centro (P), Comunidad Valenciana, Peloponnissos, Pays de la Loire, Sterea Ellada.

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