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EU-MED Agpol Annual Meeting 15-16 Mars Paris

This expert survey, conducted by Dr. Boubaker Karray, investigates the evolution of the Tunisian olive oil sector from 1991-2005 and the potential for production and export to the EU market by 2010 and 2015. It includes analysis of European olive oil imports from third countries, policy reforms, and scenarios for partial and total liberalization. The study concludes that partial liberalization would be more beneficial for Tunisian exportation to the European market.

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EU-MED Agpol Annual Meeting 15-16 Mars Paris

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  1. EU-MED Agpol Annual Meeting15-16 Mars Paris TUNISIAN OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION AND EXPORT POTENTIAL Expert survey Dr. Boubaker KARRAYbkarray@yahoo.fr Paris 15 mars 2007

  2. Plan • Evolution of the olive oil sector in Tunisia during (1991-2005) • European olive oil imports coming from the third countries: evolution and policy reforms (CMO 2004) • Olive oil production and export potential to EU market (2010 and 2015) * Scenarios (partial and total liberalization) * Experts panel * Results • Conclusion

  3. Dynamics ofTunisian Olive oil sector since 1991 • Total olive treearea : 1667 ha (2nd position after Spain) • Olive Tree number: 64 millions (7th position after Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Morocco and Syria)

  4. EU olive oil import (1991-2005)

  5. EU olive oil import coming from third countries (1991-2005)

  6. EU olive oil import coming from member countries (1991-2005)

  7. EU Policy Reforms in the olive oil sector Modification of exchange regime with the third countries Exchange regime with the third countries Association Agreement 1995 Common Organization Market Of olive oil and table olives 2004 (CMO) WTO agricultural agreement 1995 Olive oil international Agreement 2005 (IOOC) PD PVD Fixed customs duties 20% (36%) (24%) Internal support 20% 13% Exportations subsidy Values 36% 24% Quantities 21% 14%

  8. EU Exchange regime with the third countries • Normal regime • MFN tariffs • Extra virgin olive oil (1245 E/t) • Lamp olive oil(1226E/t) • Refined olive oil(1346E/t) Preferential tariff And Quota 56.700 tons Free from customs duties • Inward- processing • This regime allows the European industrialists to import olive oil from the third countries, free from customs duties, but under the condition of exporting, outside the EU, an equivalent quantity

  9. Preferential Tariffs granted to Tunisia: case of Lamp olive oil Adh. Greece Adh. Spain +Portugal Quota 57.167 MT GATT Quota 56 MT Quota 46 MT

  10. Quota granted to other third countries

  11. MFN tariffs(Normal regime) Source: European commission

  12. Inward- processing regime During the period 1992-00, 88.700 thousand tons were imported from the third countries in inward-processing arrangements (65% of total import from these countries). Source: European commission

  13. CMO 2004 (regulation 865/2004) Article 11 * If the market price of olive oil in the community exceeds the prices listed in the table, within a period of at least three months, and in order to assure an appropriate supply in olive oil to the common market through imports from non-member countries, it may be decided: Source: EC Regulation n°865/2004

  14. 1. To suspend totally or partially the application of MFN tariffs to olive oil, and establish the detailed arrangements for such suspension 2. To open up a quota for olive oil importation, to which apply common reduced MFN tariffs, and define modes of management of this quota. Article 13 * For the proper functioning of the common organization of olive oil and table olives markets, it could be decided 3. To exclude totally or partially the recourse to the inward-processing arrangements

  15. Scenarios

  16. Experts panel for the 1st and 2sd rounds of the DELPHI study

  17. Results

  18. OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION POTENTIAL

  19. OLIVE OIL EXPORT POTENTIAL

  20. Syntheses

  21. Conclusions * The effects of the total liberalization of exchanges are inferior to those of partial liberalization,as far as the increase of the Tunisian exportations in olive oil to the European market is concerned. * Total liberalizationwill bring about a more important competition between third countries producers and exporters of olive oil (Tunisia, Syria, Turkey, Jordan, Algeria, Lebanon and Palestine)

  22. Research perspectives We should reproduce the same study for the author third countries (FP 7) (Syria, Morocco, Turkey, Jordan, Algeria, the Lebanon, and Palestine)

  23. Thank You for your attention

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