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Economic Outlook June 2014

Economic Outlook June 2014. Economic Policy Division. U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 1980 to Q4 2015. Real GDP Trillion 2009 Dollars Log Scale. Forecast. $18.0. $15.0. $12.5. $9.0. $6.5. U.S. GDP per Capita: Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 1980 to Q1 2014.

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Economic Outlook June 2014

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  1. Economic OutlookJune 2014 Economic Policy Division

  2. U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 1980 to Q4 2015 Real GDP Trillion 2009 Dollars Log Scale Forecast $18.0 $15.0 $12.5 $9.0 $6.5

  3. U.S. GDP per Capita: Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 1980 to Q1 2014 2009 Dollars

  4. Comparing Recessions

  5. Real GDP Outlook

  6. Personal Consumption Outlook Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

  7. Real Disposable Personal Income

  8. Household Net Worth

  9. Household Balance Sheet Household Assets Household Liabilities

  10. Consumer Debt Service

  11. Domestic Bank Lending

  12. Consumer Confidence

  13. Auto & Light Truck Sales

  14. Housing Market Trends Home Sales Housing Starts Housing Affordability Index Median Home Prices

  15. Housing Market Trends Housing Inventory Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates

  16. Mortgage Originations Purchases Refinances

  17. Real Business Fixed Investment

  18. Investment Drivers Industrial Production Capacity Utilization

  19. Sector Indicators ATA Truck Tonnage Index Boxboard Production Monthly Leasing and Finance Index Total Rail Carloadings

  20. Domestic Bank Lending

  21. Business Confidence ISM Manufacturing Index

  22. Oil

  23. Natural Gas

  24. Labor Market Total Nonfarm Jobs Household Employment Unemployment Rate May 6.3% Initial Unemployment Claims

  25. Labor Market Part-time for Economic Reasons Discouraged Workers Duration ofUnemployment Civilian Participation Rate

  26. Employment-Population Ratio Percent

  27. U.S. Trade Real Net Exports of Goods and Services U.S. Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange Rate

  28. Eurozone Growth and Jobs Source: Oxford Economics

  29. Eurozone Monetary Policy Source: Oxford Economics

  30. European Growth Source: Oxford Economics

  31. United Kingdom Growth and Jobs Source: Oxford Economics

  32. Emerging Markets Real GDP Source: Oxford Economics

  33. Interest Rate Spreads Yield Spread 10-Year Treasury – 3 month Treasury Risk Spread Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Minus Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield TED Spread 3-Month LIBOR Minus 3-Month Treasury

  34. Fed Policy Bank Assets and Liabilities

  35. CBO’s Baseline Deficit (April 2014) Budget Deficit Deficit to GDP

  36. Government Baseline Outside Debt (CBO’s Baseline – April 2014) Debt Debt to GDP

  37. Government Gross Debt (CBO’s Baseline – April 2014) Gross Debt Gross Debt to GDP

  38. Government Revenues and Outlays( percent of GDP) Source: CBO Baseline (April 2014)

  39. Government Outlays Discretionary Entitlements Net Interest

  40. Mandatory Spending Social Security Medicare Medicaid Income Security Other Spending Social Security Medicare Medicaid Income Security Other Spending

  41. FY 2013 Revenues and Outlays Outlays Mandatory (entitlements and net interest) Discretionary Source: CBO

  42. FY 2024 Revenues and Outlays Outlays Mandatory (entitlements and net interest) Discretionary Source: CBO

  43. Government Revenues by Source Individual Income Tax Social Insurance Taxes Corporate Income Tax Other Taxes

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