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Three Political Truisms

Three Political Truisms. All political careers end in failure Enoch Powell It’s the economy, stupid Bill Clinton aide Events, dear boy, events Harold Macmillan. Prime ministerial powers - formal. Head of the Executive Chair of the Cabinet Quasi Head of State Commander-in-chief

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Three Political Truisms

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  1. Three Political Truisms All political careers end in failure Enoch Powell It’s the economy, stupid Bill Clinton aide Events, dear boy, events Harold Macmillan

  2. Prime ministerial powers - formal • Head of the Executive • Chair of the Cabinet • Quasi Head of State • Commander-in-chief • Foreign policy leader • Parliamentary leader • Dissolution

  3. Prime ministerial power- informal • Chief policy maker • Patronage • Government spokesperson

  4. Limitations on power- formal • Parliament • Cabinet • Party

  5. Limitations on power- informal • Popular Image • Media image • Personality • Parliamentary majority • Party dissent • Cabinet dissent • Strength of Opposition • Stature of predecessor

  6. Jim Callaghan • Parliamentary majority • Party dissent (unions) • Media image • Wilson’s stature • Misuse of dissolution power • Legacy of oil price hike

  7. Margaret Thatcher • Internal dissent • Media image • Length of tenure • External events

  8. John Major • Stature of predecessor • Parliamentary majority • Party dissent • Cabinet dissent • Media image • Personality • Economic events • Strength of Opposition

  9. Tony Blair • Internal dissent • One big event • Parliamentary majority • Lords and judicial activism

  10. Gordon Brown • Stature of predecessor • Personality • Media image • Misuse of dissolution • Events – in spades • Strength of Opposition • Parliamentary majority

  11. Lessons from Prime Ministers’ experience - 1 • 10 years and that’s it • Thatcher, Blair, Brown • Pareto’s revolving elites • Patronage • Media

  12. Lessons from Prime Ministers’ experience - 2 • External events are increasingly influential • It’s not the events, it’s how you are perceived to be handling them

  13. Lessons from Prime Ministers’ experience - 3 • It’s not just the economy stupid • Major 1992, Major 1997 • Brown – memories are short • We’re doomed, Cap’n Mainwaring, we’re all doomed.

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