About Me

1. About Me

2. A setup is a play that increases the expected value of the remaining tiles on your rack. • Setups are evaluated based on the potential future expected value (relative to other plays) • At the end of the day, setups are just a normal Scrabble play. Setups

3. Scoring Setup

4. Bingo Setup

5. Parallel Setup

6. Setups and Expected Value • What makes a setup a good play? • Setup play + cashing play must score more points than two non-setup plays • Setup play cannot improve opponent’s expected score • Setup play should not be blocked often

7. KAZOO vs. DECK

8. Expected Value of Setups • KAZOO: 36 points + opponent’s EV + expected score with CDE leave • KAZOO: 36 – 31 + 34 = 39 • DECK: Opponent blocks or not • DECK after block: 28 – (opponent’s score) + AOZ leave on board (about 36) • After non-block: 28 – opponent’s score (higher) + 70 (score of AZO) • DECK is clearly superior, but if KAZOO scored 12 more it would be close • The more your opponent blocks, the lower their score will be • Opponent blocking is a worse scenario • How often does opponent block?

9. Blocking • The value of setups depend on how likely your setup is going to be blocked. • Setups are only strong plays when they aren’t blocked. • Blocking occurs more often than usual when the setup is detected by your opponent and/or your opponent is able to block.

10. Undetected Setup

11. Unblockable setup

12. High Cost of Blocking • Against good opponents, creating a setup you don’t have can be effective, since your opponent will often sacrifice points to block your illusory setup. • Particularly effective when used with range finding • Reverts to a bluffing game like poker

13. Opponent plays AVOW

14. UNDUE is a strong play because it is hard to block (w/ opponent range) and appears to be a setup.

15. Setups and Entropy • Entropy measures the propensity of the score to change • Setups theoretically have low entropy, but in practice often have very high entropy • Uncertainty about opponent’s skill/reaction increases the risk in making setups

16. Low Entropy Setup Even though QUANGO is easy to block, on this board your opponent will rarely block since the setup is well disguised.

17. Low entropy setup Even though COZ is easy to detect, blocking it is nearly impossible.

18. High Entropy setup Even though it is hard to detect, this setup will often be blocked accidentally by your opponent.

19. High Entropy setup This setup is high entropy because you need to draw the O, and your opponent will often block.

20. High entropy setup Although you have the case F, you still need to draw a 5 letter word paralleling the D

21. Setup Detection • How can you (or opponent) detect setups? • Plausibility is the likelihood that your play is not a setup from opponent’s point of view • Plausibility relies on range finding

22. Plausible Setup

23. Implausible setup

24. Ranges and Plausibility • A range is the set of possible leaves that your opponent could be holding given their last action. • Ranges drastically affect plausibility, especially if the range being represented is exceedingly small.

25. Small Range

26. Summary • Setups are evaluated using expected value • Setups are only worthwhile if they aren’t blocked • When playing a setup it is appropriate to pay attention to the setup’s entropy • Setups must be plausible, or else they can be counteracted