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Forecasting the Weather Tom Robinson 9-27-2010

Forecasting the Weather Tom Robinson 9-27-2010. Steps to Forecasting. Past Present Future. Past. Satellites http://www.weather.gov/sat_tab.php?image=ir Previous Model Runs Looking back on forecasts. Current Weather.

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Forecasting the Weather Tom Robinson 9-27-2010

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  1. Forecasting the Weather Tom Robinson 9-27-2010

  2. Steps to Forecasting • Past • Present • Future

  3. Past • Satellites http://www.weather.gov/sat_tab.php?image=ir • Previous Model Runs • Looking back on forecasts

  4. Current Weather • Observations http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/index.php?metarIds=KBRO&hoursStr=past+60+hours&std_trans=translated&num_metars=number&submit_metars=Retrieve • Model initialization • Radar http://www.weather.gov/radar_tab.php

  5. Model Forecasts • Equations of the Atmosphere • Step through time • Time steps based on distance scale • GFS – 27km horizontal, 64 layers • NAM – 12km horizontal, 60 layers

  6. Ensembles • http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/FCST/COM_US/web_js/html/mean_surface_prs.html • 21 models combined • Mean Spread http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/FCST/COM_US/web_js/html/mean_surface_prs.html • Spaghetti http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/FCST/COM_US/web_js/html/spag_t2m.html • Probability http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/FCST/COM_US/web_js/html/prob_t2m.html

  7. Model Output Statistics (MOS) • 2 years of data • Model bias accounted for • How to read MOS http://www.nws.noaa.gov/tdl/synop/redmav.htm • Actual MOS (KBRO) http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KBRO

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