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Climate Change and the Caribbean the Case and the Responses

Climate Change and the Caribbean the Case and the Responses. Ian C King Project Officer Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean (ACCC) Project kingcpacc@sunbeach.net tel. (246) 417-4579. Overview. Is GCC really happening Why GCC is an issue for the Caribbean What have we been doing

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Climate Change and the Caribbean the Case and the Responses

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  1. Climate Change and the Caribbeanthe Case and the Responses Ian C King Project Officer Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean (ACCC) Project kingcpacc@sunbeach.net tel. (246) 417-4579

  2. Overview • Is GCC really happening • Why GCC is an issue for the Caribbean • What have we been doing • Challenges for the future – particularly for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  3. The Evidence Prof. G. O. P. Obasi, WMO Secretary-General at 8th UNFCCC COP • Recalled that the WSSD held in South Africa called for GHG stabilisation to prevent dangerous anthropogenic influence and allow ecosystems to adapt naturally and so ensure sustainable development IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  4. The Evidence - GHGs • GHG Atmospheric concentrations • By 1st COP in 1995 • 359.5 ppmv • Increase of 28% since industrialization • By end 2001 • 370 ppmv • Annual growth rates fluctuates from 0.5 ppmv/year to 3.5 ppmv/year IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  5. IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  6. The Evidence – Temperatures & SLR • 1990s warmest decade on record • 1998 the warmest year • 2001 the second • Global average surface temperature • Increase by 0.6 oC since the 1860’s • Most of warming in the 20th Century especially • 1920 – 1945 • Post 1976 • IPCC suggest that most of the warming in last 30 – 50 years due to anthropogenic sources • Reduction in snow and ice cover – especially in non-polar mountain glaciers • Rise in average sea-level of 18 – 20 cm IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  7. Global Temperature Variation 1860 – 2000IPCC TAR IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  8. Global Temperature Variation over 1000 years (Northern hemisphere) - IPCC TAR IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  9. Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature1000 to 2100 IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  10. IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  11. Annual Precipitation(1901 – 1995) Green = increasing, Brown = decreasing IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  12. Annual Mean Sea Level in Key West Fig. 2. Annual mean sea level at Key West from 1846-1992:insert shows the bootstrap estimate of the linear trend and itsvariability. The dashed line is the least squares linear trendand the solid lines are the 99% CI for the trend. IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  13. Change in Annual Precipitationfor the 2050’s IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  14. Temperature Trends(1901 – 1996) Red = warming, Blue = cooling IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  15. Past and Future CO2 Atmospheric Concentrations Figure SPM-10a: Atmospheric CO2concentration from year 1000 to year 2000 from ice core data and from direct atmospheric measurements over the past few decades. Projections of CO2concentrations for the period 2000 to 2100 are based on the six illustrative SRES scenarios and IS92a (for comparison with the SAR). Q9 Figure 9-1a IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  16. The Evidence – Weather • Unprecedented weather extremes such as tropical cyclones, severe floods & droughts • Recently major storm events & floods in Europe, Asia, Africa and South America • Mozambique, 2000 storm events Elyne & Gloria est. direct & in-direct economic cost of 11.6% of GNP • Record breaking droughts in middle Eastern countries, Brazil, Horn of Africa & central Asia to N China • China 2001 drought 2nd most severe since 1949 (<1978) • 13 million people in Southern Africa affected by severe drought in 2002 IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  17. IPCC Assessments of Extreme Events with Climate Change (TAR Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) – Working Group II, 2001) IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  18. The Evidence – ENSO • Warm ENSO episodes • consistently leads to regional variabilities in precipitation & temperature over tropics, sub-tropics & some mid-latitudes • More frequent, persistent and intense since the mid-1970’s compared to previous 100 years • Note 1997/1998 El Nino event was very strong affecting 110 million people and estimated to cost US $96 billion in damage • Current El Nino is predicted to be weak • IPCC 2001 - The Scientific Basis, SPM "...global warming is likely to lead to greater extremes of drying and heavy rainfall.....that occur with El Nino events in many regions". IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  19. IPCC Third Assessment Report • IPCC TAR in 2001 concluded • “there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities.” IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  20. Climate Change: A Priority for the Caribbean • World’s industrial powers (OECD) account for 20% world’s population, but are responsible for >50 % of global emissions – the cause of global warming and resultant climate change. • Developing countries emit < 25 % of total GHG emissions. • Small Island States emit < 1% of global emissions. • SIDS have contributed little to the problem but are among the most vulnerable groups to GCC, and have low adaptive capacity. • Hence adaptation rather than mitigation is most appropriate course IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  21. Climate Change: A Priority for the Caribbean • Expected climate change impacts for region include: • Sea level rise • Saline intrusion into freshwater aquifers • Coastal flooding and erosion • Increased temperatures • Heat stress • Coral bleaching • Biodiversity loss • Increased emergence of vector borne diseases IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  22. Climate Change: A Priority for the Caribbean • Changes in rainfall patterns • Droughts or floods • Decreased fresh water availability • Increased intensity of storm activity • Direct damage of infrastructure • Loss of lives IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  23. Possible Climate Change Impacts on Tourism • Direct damage to tourism plant and natural resources • Coral reefs • Beaches • Loss of attractiveness of the region as a destination • Impacts on health – emergence of dengue, malaria, etc. • Reduced dive tourism if coral reefs are damaged • Milder Winters in the North • Loss of employment in the industry • Increased insurance costs for properties in vulnerable areas IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  24. Significance of Estimated Changes • Economists Erik Haites (IPCC leader)and Dennis Pantin (UWI St. Augustine) asked by World Bank to estimate damages that may arise to CARICOM countries based on IPCC TAR projections • Temperature, rainfall, SLR, tropical storms and hurricanes IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  25. Economic Impact of Climate Change in the Caribbean (1999 US$ million)(components may not sum to the total due to rounding) IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  26. Economic Impact of Climate Change in the Caribbean (1999 US$ million)(components may not sum to the total due to rounding) IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  27. Economic Impact of Climate Change in the Caribbean (1999 US$ million)(components may not sum to the total due to rounding) IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  28. Economic Impact of Climate Change in the Caribbean (1999 US$ million)(components may not sum to the total due to rounding) IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  29. Summary of Economists Estimates • Low scenario to 2050 • $1.5 billion in total damages • Ranging from 3.5% to 16% GDP • High Scenario • US $9 billion per year • 24% to 103% of GDP IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  30. Increased Cases Due to Climate Change and Associated Costsfor Selected Diseases, Cuba IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  31. Climate Change: A Priority for the Caribbean • SIDS meeting, 1994 • BPOA • Climate change identified as priority area of concern, requiring “urgent action” • CPACC Project formulated after a series of national and regional consultations IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  32. The Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Global Climate Change (CPACC) Project • The GEF-funded Project (1997-2001) was executed by the Organization of American States in partnership with the University of the West Indies for Environment and Development, (UWICED) for the World Bank as the GEF Implementing Agency. • The Project’s overall objective was to support Caribbean countries in preparing to cope with the adverse effects of GCC, particularly sea-level rise in coastal areas, through vulnerability assessment, adaptation planning and related capacity building. IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  33. CPACC Project Components • Design and Establishment of Sea Level/Climate Monitoring Network • Establishment of Databases and Information Systems • Inventory of Coastal Resources and Use • Formulation of a Policy Framework for Integrated Adaptation Planning and Management • Coral Reef Monitoring for Climate Change • Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Assessment • Economic Valuation of Coastal and Marine Resources • Formulation of Economic/Regulatory Proposals • Green House Gas inventory IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  34. Accomplishments • Nationally, all countries have NFP’s and NICU’s. • In some countries, National committees have been established to address climate change. • Establishment of a sea level and climate monitoring system that contributes to regional and global assessment of the issues • Improved access and availability of data • Increased appreciation of climate change issues at the policy-making level and technical support to better define the regional position at the conventions IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  35. Accomplishments • Meeting country needs for expanded vulnerability assessment, economic evaluation techniques, developing economic instruments and methodology for coral reef monitoring • Created a network for regional harmonization • Development of National Climate Change Adaptation policies and action plans IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  36. After CPACC • Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean (ACCC) – Oct. 2001 – Sept. 2004 • Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) – Jan. 2003-Dec. 2006 • Caribbean Community Climate change Centre (CCCCC) – Feb 2002 - IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  37. Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean (ACCC) Project • $ Cdn. 3.4 million CCCDF grant from the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) to further capacity building efforts initiated under CPACC. Includes: • Development of business plan for Climate Change Centre • Support for RPIU until CCCCC established and operational • Development of a M.Sc. Programme in Climate Change at U.W.I. • Developing sectoral studies on climate change impacts and adaptive responses IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  38. ACCC Projects • Project 1: Detailed Project Design and Business Plan for Regional Climate Change Centre • Project 2: Public Education and Outreach (PEO) • Project 3: Integrating Climate Change into a Physical Planning Process using a Risk Management Approach • Project 4: Strengthening Technical Capacity – through CIMH and National institutes, supporting Masters level course at UWI, development of region-specific climate change scenarios and liaison with other SIDS (in Caribbean and Pacific) IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  39. ACCC Projects • Project 5: Integrating Adaptation Planning in Environmental Assessments for National and Regional Development Projects • Project 6: Implementation Strategies for Adaptation in the Water Sector • Project 7: Formulation of Adaptation Strategies to Protect Human Health • Project 8: Adaptation Strategies for Agriculture and Food • Project 9: Fostering Collaboration/Cooperation with non-CARICOM Countries IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  40. ACCC Progress to Date • Developing risk management approach to address climate change impacts in the public and private sectors • Following several workshops and training seminars to discuss approach • Adapted the Canadian RM standard and terminology but adjusted to suit the region as well as utilising some aspects of the South pacific CHARM (Comprehensive Hazard and Risk management) methodology IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  41. ACCC Progress to Date • Regional Public Education and Outreach (PEO) Strategy drafted after extensive consultation • Regional Capacity Development • Commencement of the CC Masters • Supporting and enhancing climate modeling capability at UWI • CIMH support • Commenced interaction with Pacific • Collaboration with the CDB DMFC on the incorporation of natural hazards consideration into the EIA process IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  42. Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) • PDF B grant to assist in defining MACC project components • Support national and regional consultations • Sectoral and cross sectoral • Prepare full project proposal/document MACC – in final phase • MACC finally approved by World Bank in April ’03 and should commence in late 2003 after some delay – some elements commenced already under the ACCC IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  43. MACC • (a) Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in national development planning and public and private investment decisions. • A key activity of the project will be the work with key sectors (such as water supply, agriculture, forestry, land use planning) to incorporate climate change impact and risk assessment in their ongoing programs and long-term planning. IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  44. MACC • (b) Assisting Institutional and Technical Support mechanisms: • (i) Assisting participating countries with Stage II adaptation under the UNFCCC: • (ii) Support and coordination for the preparation of the 2nd National Communications • (iii) Mainstreaming through a Permanent Institutional Mechanism to Address GCC in the Caribbean IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  45. MACC • (c) Expand GCC monitoring and impact assessment as a basis for national and regional level decision making on adaptation. The following activities will be supported: • strengthening monitoring network • wider geographical coverage; • integration of global and Caribbean networks • increased scope of measurements and data collection • downscaling global models • modeling under climate change scenarios IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  46. MACC • (d)Cross-regional Dissemination and Replication • Under this component, the project will undertake activities to facilitate replication by disseminating results and lessons learned to other regions. Specifically, the project will support efforts aimed at disseminating mainstreaming activities in the Caribbean, to Pacific Island Nations and other low lying areas. IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  47. Climate Change Centre • First Ministerial Meeting to consider the progress in the implementation of the BPOA mandated that a mechanism be in place to continue climate change work in the region after the conclusion of the CPACC Project • On the recommendation of the Eighth Meeting of the Council for Trade and Economic Development (COTED) • The initiative to establish a Regional Climate Change Centre was endorsed by the CARICOM Heads of Government at their “Twenty-First Meeting of the Conference of Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community”, 2-5 July, 2000 • Established as a legal entity at the CARICOM Heads of Government Intersessional Meeting, February, 2002. • Set to commence following the start of the MACC project but building on that activity and the CPACC Project IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

  48. The Objectives of the Centre • Promoting protection of the earth’s climate system • Enhancing regional institutional capabilities for the co-ordination of national responses to the adverse effects of climate change • Providing comprehensive policy and technical support in the area of climate change and related issues and spearheading regional initiatives in those areas • Performing the role of executing agency for regional environmental projects relating to climate change • Promoting education and public awareness on climate change issues • Facilitating regional consensus for negotiations related to the UNFCCC IDSD Presentation - Oct '03

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