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The Impact of Climate Change in the Caribbean

The Impact of Climate Change in the Caribbean. Andrea M. Sealy. Climate Issues. Has the atmospheric composition changed in the past century? Is it due to human activity? Will the composition continue to change (greenhouse gas concentration)?

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The Impact of Climate Change in the Caribbean

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  1. The Impact of Climate Change in the Caribbean Andrea M. Sealy

  2. Climate Issues • Has the atmospheric composition changed in the past century? Is it due to human activity? Will the composition continue to change (greenhouse gas concentration)? How will this effect the energy balance (locally and globally)? • Has the climate changed in the past century? Is this change due to human activity? How will climate change in the future? What are the impacts of this change? BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  3. IPCC Regional Predictions • Temperature increase between 1.4°C - 3.2°C • Small islands, whether located in the tropics or higher latitudes, have characteristics which make them especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea-level rise and extreme events • Deterioration in coastal conditions, for example through erosion of beaches and coral bleaching, is expected to affect local resources, e.g., fisheries, and reduce the value of these destinations for tourism • Sea-level rise is expected to exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards, thus threatening vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support the livelihood of island communities • Climate change is projected by mid-century to reduce water resources in many small islands, e.g., in the Caribbean and Pacific, to the point where they become insufficient to meet demand during low-rainfall periods BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  4. IPCC regional predictions by 2099: Rainfall Generally annual rainfall is expected to decrease approximately 30% in parts of the region Strong decreases in Western and Northern Caribbean Seasonal variation of rainfall is expected DJF some areas register increases JJA everywhere shows decreases Taken from IPCC Scientific Basis 2007 BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  5. BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  6. IPCC AR4 WGII (2007) BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  7. Excerpt from Table TS.2. Range of future impacts and vulnerabilities in small islands [B16.1]., IPCC AR4 WGII (2007) • Caribbean (Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles): Beach erosion and sea-turtle nesting habitats • On average, up to 38% (±24% standard deviation) of the total current beach could be lost with a 0.5 m rise in sea level, with lower narrower beaches being the most vulnerable, reducing turtle nesting habitat by one-third. • Caribbean (Bonaire, Barbados): Tourism • The beach-based tourism industry in Barbados and the marine-diving-based ecotourism industry in Bonaire are both negatively affected by climate change through beach erosion in Barbados and coral bleaching in Bonaire. BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  8. Changes in Predicted Global Sea Level Change • Local sea level change (m) due to ocean density and circulation change relative to the global average (i.e., positive values indicate greater local sea level change than global) during the 21st century, calculated as the difference between averages for 2080-2099 and 1980-1999. BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  9. Global risk from coastal flooding IPCC AR4 WGII (2007) BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  10. What do regional climate models say? • Mean changes in the annual mean surface temperature for 2071-2099 with respect to 1961-1989, as simulated by PRECIS_ECH and PRECIS_Had for SRESA2 and SRESB2. BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  11. Annual mean changes in precipitation (%) for 2071-2099 as simulated by PRECIS_ECH and PRECIS_Had for A2 and B2 emission scenarios. BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  12. Wet Season mean changes in precipitation (%) for 2071-2099 as simulated by PRECIS_ECH and PRECIS_Had for A2 and B2 emission scenarios. BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  13. Rainfall projections for the period 2071–2100 relative to the period 1961–1990 baseline under the A2 scenario. Percentage change is presented. Panels (a), (b), (c), (d) and (e) represent annual, NDJ, FMA, MJJ and ASO, respectively. Campbell et al (2010), The Climate Studies Group Mona, UWI-Mona BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  14. Temperature projections for the period 2071–2100 relative to the period 1961–1990 baseline under the A2 scenario. Absolute change is presented. Panels (a), (b), (c), (d) and (e) represent annual, NDJ, FMA, MJJ and ASO, respectively. Campbell et al (2010), The Climate Studies Group Mona, UWI-Mona BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  15. Precipitation: March-April-May Northern Caribbean is projected to experience its most significant decrease in precipitation south of Cuba and extending to south of Jamaica The Eastern Caribbean shows an overall projected decrease in precipitation Southern Caribbean, over northeast Guyana it appears that there will be approximately a 30% projected increase in rainfall from the Present to the Future BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  16. Precipitation: June-July-August Most significant changes in projected rainfall, especially for the Northern and Southern Caribbean N. Caribbean- projected decrease in precipitation of at least 20-30% Eastern Caribbean there is no significant change, generally the precipitation is projected to either increase or decrease by up to 10% Southern Caribbean precipitation is expected to increase especially across northern Guyana and Venezuela where increases of about 20-30% are predicted. BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  17. Precipitation: September-October-November Northern Caribbean projected decrease in rainfall to be over 30% is not as spatially broad as for the JJA period For the Southern and Eastern Caribbean generally the rainfall is not expected to decrease significantly in the Future except for the area of southern Guyana bordering Brazil projecting a decrease of about 20-30% BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  18. Extremely hot days (Tmax >= 35°C) • Northern Caribbean present simulation shows approximately up to 20 days with the future projection to increase to over 100 • For the Southern Caribbean and Guyana in the Present simulation there are areas where there are no extremely hot days projected to experience up to 20, especially over southwest Guyana the Present number of up to 80 extremely hot days per year is projected to be up to 150-200 BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  19. Warm nights (Tmin >= 25°C) Northern Caribbean Present simulations show up to 20 tropical nights per year with a projected increase to over 200 Eastern Caribbean tropical nights the projected increase goes from up to approximately 40 tropical nights to over 250 Southwest Guyana tropical nights with a projected increase from up to 20 tropical nights to over 250 BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  20. Caribbean climate concerns BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  21. Caribbean climate concerns • Sea level rise • Coastal flooding and erosion • Saline intrusion into freshwater aquifers • Increased temperatures • Heat stress • Coral bleaching • Biodiversity loss • Increased emergence of vector borne diseases BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  22. Caribbean climate concerns • Changes in rainfall patterns • Droughts or floods • Decreased fresh water availability • Increased vector and water borne diseases • Increased intensity of storm activity • Direct damage of infrastructure • Loss of life BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  23. Impacts to sectors • Agriculture and fisheries: effects from land loss, salinization , sea level rise and drought on subsistence and commercial agriculture. • Biodiversity: coral reef and mangroves suffer extensive damage from extreme climate events (i.e. cyclones) and temperature changes • Water resources critical as most rely on rainwater as primary source of freshwater. Those who rely also on groundwater resources are also seriously affected due to lack of recharge during droughts. • Water quality issues: Salt water intrusion into the water aquifer BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  24. Impacts to sectors (cont.) • Coastal Zones, Marine resources and settlements: almost all infrastructure and socio economic activities and populations are located on or near coasts. Coastal erosion is a chronic problem exacerbated by extreme weather events. Additionally, sea-level rises lead to loss of beaches and coastal regions. • Tourism sector: drought, sea level rise, erosion, degradation of coral reefs, incidence of vector borne and water borne diseases would all affect tourism BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  25. What about transport and climate change? • Transport activity is increasing around the world as economies grow. • This is especially true in many areas of the developing world • Current transportation activity is mainly driven by internal combustion engines powered by petroleum fuels (95% of the world transport energy use in 2004). • Petroleum use closely follows the growth in transportation activity • In 2004, transport energy amounted to 26% of total world energy use • In the developed world, transport energy use continues to increase at slightly more than 1% per year • Unless there is a major shift away from current patterns of energy use, projections foresee a continued growth in world transportation energy use of 2% per year, with energy use and carbon emissions about 80% above 2002 levels by 2030 BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  26. In developed economies, motor vehicle ownership approaches five to eight cars for every ten inhabitants • The motorization of transport inthe developing world expected to grow rapidly • Increasing speed has generally led to greater energy intensity and higher GHG emissions. BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  27. In 2004, the contribution of transport to total energy-related GHG emissions was about 23% • Transport sector CO2 have increased by around 27% since 1990 and its growth rate is the highest among the end-user sectors • Road transport currently accounts for 74% of total transport CO2 emissions • The share of non-OECD* countries is 36% now and will increase rapidly to 46% by 2030 if current trends continue *Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  28. Climate change solutions • Reduce GHG emissions: the global plan • Montreal Protocol • Kyoto Protocol • Carbon trading • Carbon sequestration mechanisms • UN COP • Be proactive: the regional plan • CCCCC, etc • CARIBSAVE, etc. • Building codes & environmental policies • Be aware: the personal level • Reuse, Reduce, Recycle • Reduce carbon footprint (more local produce etc) BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  29. Regional response • Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) • Coordinates the Caribbean region’s response to climate change • Officially opened in August 2005 • Official repository and clearing house for regional climate change data, providing climate change-related policy advice and guidelines to the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Member States through the CARICOM Secretariat. • Caribbean Agrometeorological Initiative (CAMI) • Funded by the European Union’s ACP Science and Technology Programme • Partnership between CIMH (Applicant), WMO, CARDI, Ten Meteorological Services • The overarching objective is to increase and sustain agricultural productivity at the farm level in the Caribbean region through improved applications of weather and climate information using an integrated and coordinated approach • Caribbean Water Initiative (CARIWIN) • Goal is to increase the capacity of the Caribbean countries to deliver equitable and sustainable integrated water resources management (IWRM) • Caribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  30. Example of prediction tool: Precipitation Outlook for the Caribbean Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  31. CARIBSAVE • CARIBSAVE addresses the impacts and challenges surrounding climate change, tourism, the environment, economic development and community livelihoods across the Caribbean Basin, using an integrated and holistic approach. BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  32. What can we do? • Reuse, Reduce, Recycle • Be more mindful of your solid waste • At home, compost • Use reusable bags • Recycle glass, plastic, aluminum and paper items • Think! • Be mindful of: • Water usage, • Solid waste disposal • Energy usage • What you eat BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  33. Ways you can reduce your carbon footprint • Carbon footprint is an estimate of the amount of carbon each person utilizes over a period of time for various activities • E.g., transportation, what you consume, recreational activities, routine day-to-day activities • http://myfootprint.org/ • http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/personal_footprint/ BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  34. Resources http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php http://www.caricom.org/jsp/community/ccccc.jsp?menu=community http://caribbeanclimate.bz/news.php http://caribsave.org/ http://caribsave.org/assets/files/presentations/CARIBSAVE%20Bahamas%2019.5.09.pdf http://www.mcgill.ca/cariwin/ http://www.buccooreef.org/ http://earth.google.co.uk/outreach/kml_entry.html#tClimate%20Change%20In%20Our%20World http://ipcc.ch/ BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

  35. BWU ITF Climate Change Seminar 2012

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