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2018 LTSA Update Regional Planning Group Meeting February 27, 2018

This update provides an outline of the LTSA Regional Planning Group Meeting, including system topology, capacity mix, assumptions, and generation expansion results.

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2018 LTSA Update Regional Planning Group Meeting February 27, 2018

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  1. 2018 LTSA Update Regional Planning Group Meeting February 27, 2018

  2. Outline • System Topology and Starting Capacity Mix • Main Assumptions for Current Trends Scenario • Generation Expansion Results for Current Trends Scenario • Next Step

  3. System Topology and Starting Capacity Mix Panhandle 4792 MW The Rest DC Ties External

  4. Main Assumptions for Current Trends Scenario • 1.4% annual load growth rate; • 1 GW rooftop PV; • LNG – Freeport three trains; • Gas price – 2018 AEO High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology Case; • DC tie – 2,000 MW Southern Cross.

  5. Current Trends Results • Reserve margin in final year : 7.3% • Built 4,500 MW gas generation capacity • Built 3,000 MW wind • Built 15,900 MW solar • Retirements total 7,392 MW by 2033 • 4,500 MW of coal retirements • Unserved energy in 2023 to 2033, short of capacity in hour ending 20, 21 and 22, maximum magnitude over 6,000 MW • Panhandle interface is congested over 30% of time after 2023

  6. August Average LMP 2019 vs 2033

  7. Next Step • Transmission expansion • Current Trends Scenario • Generation expansion • High Economic Growth Scenario

  8. Questions Contact info: Doug Murray Julie Jin douglas.murray@ercot.comjulie.jin@ercot.com 512.248.6908 512.248.3982 Sandeep Borkar sandeep.borkar@ercot.com 512.248.6642

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