Ozone SIP Modeling and Data Analysis: Part 3

1. Ozone SIP Modeling and Data Analysis: Part 3 Presented by Modeling Staff of ARB Presentation to the Policy Committee

2. Contents • SIP Modeling Process • Meteorological Modeling • Air Quality Modeling • Current Schedule Presentation to the Policy Committee

3. SIP Modeling Process • Multi-district modeling effort • Regular meetings with Districts • modeling and related issues • emissions inventory QA/QC • Active participation in the Bay Area MAC • Episodes considered • July-August, 2000 (All) • September 2000 (SJV) • June 2000 (BA, Sac?) • July 1999 (All) • July 2002 (Sac?) Presentation to the Policy Committee

4. CCAQS Modeling Domains Presentation to the Policy Committee

5. SIP Modeling Process (Cont.) • Models considered • Emissions • EMS-95 with BEIGIS, EMFAC, and DTIM • Meteorology • MM5, RAMS, CALMET/MM5 Hybrid • Air Quality • SAQM, CAMx, CMAQ • Model selection based on UCR findings • BAAQMD proceeding with CAMx • CMAQ may not be considered Presentation to the Policy Committee

6. SIP Modeling Process (Cont.) • Chemical Mechanisms • CB-IV – Efficient, old standard, no significant updates • SAPRC – time-consuming, state-of-the-science, continual updates, recommended by the Reactivity Scientific Advisory Committee • Modeling Protocols • SJV protocol being updated (SJVAPCD/ARB) • BAAQMD protocol is draft final (ENVIRON) • Sacramento protocol planned (SMAQMD/ARB/DRI) Presentation to the Policy Committee

7. Meteorology Modeling: MM5 Presentation to the Policy Committee

8. Meteorology Model Performance • Issues • Air temperature under-estimated • Wind speed over-estimated • Vertical mixing uncertain • Improvements • Alternative synoptic-scale initialization • Alternative boundary-layer schemes • Different numbers and thickness of vertical layers • Analysis and Observational FDDA Presentation to the Policy Committee

9. Air Quality Modeling • Models currently used • SAQM • CAMx • Ozone episodes currently being modeled • August, 1990 SARMAP episode • July-August, 2000 CCOS episode • Meteorology used • MM5 – ARB • MM5 - NOAA • CALMET/MM5 Hybrid Presentation to the Policy Committee

10. Air Quality Movie Presentation to the Policy Committee

11. Air Quality on July 31, 2000 Presentation to the Policy Committee

12. Air Quality on August 01, 2000 Presentation to the Policy Committee

13. Air Quality on August 02, 2000 Presentation to the Policy Committee

14. Observed vs. Simulated ozone at BTI, LVF, SJ4 Presentation to the Policy Committee

15. Observed vs. Simulated ozone at CUS, SLU, SDP Presentation to the Policy Committee

16. Observed vs. Simulated ozone at EDS, M14, and PLR Presentation to the Policy Committee

17. Air Quality Model Performance Preliminary ARB modeling indicates: • Fair Ozone model performance downwind of SF Bay area • Ozone over-estimated downwind of urban Sacramento area • Ozone under-estimated downwind of urban Bakersfield area Presentation to the Policy Committee

18. AQ Model Improvements • Investigative simulations • Initial and boundary conditions • Emissions • Meteorology Presentation to the Policy Committee

19. Computer Resource • ~30x more resources needed compared to SARMAP (with CB-IV chemistry) • Modeling domain is 3x larger • Horizontal grid size is 9x smaller E.g. One episode day = 0.5 CPU days • ~90x more resources for SAPRC • Currently improving computer resources to meet the challenge Presentation to the Policy Committee