Recent Advances at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction

1. Recent Advances at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin” Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP University of Wisconsin – Madison October 6, 2003

2. Overview • Define NCEP • Status of Models • Recent Advancements • Hurricane forecasts • Wave Watch III • QPF • Climate Model • JCSDA • Future Plans for Community Models • Ensembles • WRF • ESMF

3. Define NCEP

4. NCEP Center Locations Space Environment Center Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center

5. Severe Storm Outlooks Fire Weather Outlooks Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts to 5 days Marine Weather Discussions Model Discussions Severe Weather Watches Hurricane Watches and Warnings Aviation Warnings (Convective, Turbulence, Icing) Climate Forecasts (Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual) Marine High Seas Forecasts Solar Monitoring – geomagnetic storm forecasts What Does NCEP Do? Guidance to Support WFO/RFC National Products • Model Development and Applications, including Data Assimilation • Ocean Models for Climate Prediction; Coastal Ocean Forecast System; Wave Models • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

6. Contractors/ Visiting Scientists: 155

7. Employment Situation • Employment situation • Total of 375 Civil Servants; 131 contractors; 24 visitors • Currently have 6 Student Interns (SCEP/STEP); 2 volunteers • During the last 12 months • 33 CS vacancies; 6 SCEPs; • Hired 28 contractors • 7 new visiting scientists • 14 Summer Hires (ORISE, GoHFAS, NOAA Educational Partnership Programs) • Projected growth through ’08: 50 – 60 (contractors/visiting scientists/postdocs)

8. Status of Models

9. Computing Capability $20M/Year Investment Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) • Receives Over 116 Million Global Observations Daily • Sustained Computational Speed: 450 Billion Calculations/Sec • Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day • Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) • Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) • Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)

10. NCEP Operational Models Eta 12 km, 60 levels, 84 hrs at 0 , 6, 12 and 18Z Global Forecast System (GFS) T254 (~55 km) to 3.5 days (84 hrs), 64 levels T170 (~75 km) to 7.5 days (180 hrs), 42 levels T126 (~105 km) to 16 days (384 hrs), 28 levels 16 days (384 hrs)/4 times per day RUC 20 km, 50 levels 12 hrs at 0,3,6,9,12,15,18,21Z 3 hrs at 1,2,4,5,7,8,10,11,13,14, 16,17,19,20,22,23Z Climate T62 (~200 km), 28 levels, 7 months (20 members) Ensembles global 10 members at 0 and 12Z T126 (~105 km) to 84 hrs, T62 (210 km) to 384 hrs 28 levels, 16 days (384 hrs) regional 10 members at 0 and 12Z 48 km, 45 levels, 63 hrs from 9 and 21Z Wave Model global - 1.25 x 1.0 deg lat/lon Alaskan Regional - .5 x .25 deg lat/lon Western North Atlantic - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon Eastern North Pacific - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon 1 level, 168 hrs/4 times per day North Atlantic Hurricane (seasonal) North Pacific Hurricane (seasonal) .25 x .25 deg lat/lon 1 level 78 hours/4 times per day GFDL Hurricane Model coupled ocean-atmosphere Two nests (0.5, 1/6 deg lat/lon) 42 levels 126 hrs at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z

11. Status of Distributed ModelsThe Workstation Eta • A means for providing real-time high-resolution numerical model data at the local level • Domain can be placed anywhere on the globe: size and resolution determined by user • Non-NWS use encouraged. About 135 international requests from countries such as China and Brazil (both with >5 users), Turkey and Thailand. • Over 145 domestic users: WFOs, researchers and students at U.S universities http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/wrkstn_eta/

12. Tiling for Higher Resolution Applications • 6 High resolution (all 8 km except 10 km Alaska) Window nested runs - once per day to 48 hours

13. Tiling for Higher Resolution Applications • Fire weather runs – 8 km NMM runs on demand in one of 26 areas of coverage, each about 900 km square up to 4/day • Dispersion models run on demand using 4 km NMM for Homeland Security

14. Recent Advancements

17. Recent Advancements: Hurricanes

18. NHC Yearly-averaged Atlantic Track Forecast Errors

19. TPC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors

20. Hurricane Michelle October 29 - November 5, 2001

21. Hurricane Claudette5-Day Hurricane Forecast Radar 10:45 AM July 15, 2003

22. Thursday, 9/18/03 12 PM EDT 5-day forecast Hurricane Isabel 3-day forecast

25. Recent Advancements: Wave Watch III

26. new model required WAVEWATCH III • New model design with emphasis on transparency, vectorization and parallelization (plug compatible, portable). • More general governing transport equation, allowing for later full coupling with ocean models. • Improved propagation schemes (third order). • Improved physics integration scheme (follows small time scale evolution more closely, yet more economical than conventional schemes). • Improved physics of wave growth and decay.

27. Operational Configurations • NOAA WAVEWATCH III officially replaced all previous operational wave models at NCEP on March 9, 2000. • Global model at 1°x1.25° latitude-longitude resolution from 78°S to 78°N, run four times daily for a 168h forecast. • Nested regional models for Alaskan Waters (0.25°x 0.5°) and Western North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific (0.25°x 0.25°) for same time frame. • All models use GFS and ice edge information from NCEP's operational ice analysis. A special GFDL driven version of the Western North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific wave model are run for hurricane wave prediction (72h forecast).

28. Isabel 18/9/2003, 12 UTC 12h forecast nowcast Intensity and location of forecast waves consistent and confirmed by altimeter and buoy observations. At 48h forecast lower wave heights due to earlier landfall. 24h forecast 48h forecast wave height 50+ ft (45+ ft)

29. Isabel at Field Research Facility Duck NC 9/18 14:00 EDT 9/29 14:00 EDT Maximum observed wave height at the end of the pier 26.6ft, which is roughly the maximum sustainable wave height for the local water depth. Wave height 2 miles offshore reported up to 49 ft. pictures from US Army Corps Of Engineers Field Research Facility webcam

30. Recent Advancements: QPF

34. All Time HPC QPF Threat Score Records

35. Recent Advancements: Climate Model

36. Climate Model • Current operational climate model • 200 km, 28 levels, runs to 7 months each month • Linked to SSTs in Pacific basin only • Improved operational climate model • Fully coupled ocean-atmosphere system • NCEP operational Global Forecast System (GFS) atmospheric model • 200 km resolution, 64 levels, model top 0.2 mb • MOM3 ocean model (GFDL) • 100 km resolution, 40 levels, 30 km between 10 deg N and 10 deg S • Global; between 65 deg N and 75 deg S • Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS)

37. Coupled Model Simulation ENSO SST cycles Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies Simulated 2002-2040 (top) Observed 1965-2003 (bottom)

38. Coupled Model Simulation SST Interannual Variability Observed 28 Level Atm 64 Level Atm

39. Examples of ENSO events Simulated El Nino 2015-2016 Simulated La Nina 2017-18 Real El Nino 1982-1983 Real La Nina 1988-1989

40. Initial States Amip – long model run Reanl2 – reanalysis Casst – constructed analog (emp. Tool) Cmp14 – operational

41. Initial States Amip – long model run Reanl2 – reanalysis Casst – constructed analog (emp. Tool) Cmp14 – operational

42. JCSDA

43. Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilationcreated July 2, 2001 Accelerate use of research and operational satellite data in operational numerical prediction models • Increase uses of current satellite data in NWP models • Develop the hardware/software systems needed to assimilate data from the advanced satellite sensors • Advance the common NWP models and data assimilation infrastructure • Develop common fast radiative transfer system • Assess the impacts of data from advanced satellite sensors on weather and climate predictions • Reduce the average time for operational implementations of new satellite technology from two years to one Goals:

44. NOAA/NCEP NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/OAR NASA/Goddard Office of Weather and Air Quality Seasonal Interannual Prediction Project US Navy NOAA/NESDIS US Air Force Office of Naval Research Office of Research & Applications Air Weather Agency (XOW) JCSDA Partners Management Oversight Board

45. JCSDA Organizational Structure NASA & NOAA Joint Oversight Board of Directors: NOAA NCEP: L. Uccellini (Chair) Goddard ESD: F. Einaudi NOAA ORA: M. Colton NOAA OWAQR: D. Rogers Navy: S. Chang, R. Hillyer USAF: J. Lanicci, M. Farrar Advisory Panel Rotating Chair Joint Center Staff Center Director: Stephen Lord (Acting) Deputy Directors: Fuzhong Weng - NESDIS L. P. Riishogjaard – NASA P. Phoebus – NRL Technical Liaisons: DAO – D. Dee EMC – J. Derber NSIPP – M. Rienecker OWAQR – A. Gasiewski ORA – D. Tarpley Navy – N. Baker USAF – M. McAtee Program Support: Christine Brown George Ohring (NESDIS) Science Steering Committee

46. JCSDA: Recent Accomplishments • Land emissivity model tested in NCEP operational models • Positive impacts with AMSU data over land (May,2002) • Operational implementation (October, 2002) • Enabled use of microwave radiances over land • New Data used in NCEP operational models • SSM/I, TRMM microwave imager precipitation estimates (October, 2001) • SSM/I, AMSU cloud liquid water (May, 2001) • GOES-10 IR radiances (February, 2001) • QuikSCAT data (January, 2002)

47. Ongoing Activities • Preparation for AIRS • Fast radiative model (OPTRAN), documented, delivered, and installed in experimental NCEP global analysis • Prototype cloud detection algorithm and Quality Control developed • Data assessment began November 16, 2002 • AIRS Targeted Observations Study • Winter Storms Reconnaissance cases • Test impact of targeted observations • Test AIRS impacts with difference schemes • Test assimilation techniques (data weighting) • Assessment of AMSR-E Products • Acquire AMSR-E products in BUFR format (SST, wind speeds, sea ice concentration) • Evaluate product quality • Run initial forecast experiments with products • Acquire AMSR-E radiances

48. Ongoing Activities (cont) • Surface emissivity model upgrade for snow and ice applications • New algorithm for SST retrievals • Reduced spatial and time noise • Uses OPTRAN for radiative transfer • Extension to microwave instruments, AIRS • Aerosol effects once in OPTRAN • Preparation for GPS occultation data • NSF, NESDIS sponsored Post Docs • Collaboration between NASA, NCEP, NESDIS, NCAR • Assimilation of Polar Winds

49. Ongoing Activities (cont)JCSDA Announcement of Opportunity • Improve radiative transfer model • UCLA – Advanced Radiative Transfer • UMBC – Including Aerosols in OPTRAN • NOAA/ETL – Fast microwave radiance assimilation studies • Prepare for advanced instruments • U. Wisconsin – Polar winds assimilation • NASA/GSFC – AIRS and GPS assimilation • Advance techniques for assimilating cloud and precipitation information • U. Wisconsin – Passive microwave assimilation of cloud and precipitation • Improve emissivity models and surface products • Boston U. - Time varying Land & Vegetation • U. Arizona – Satellite obs for Snow Data Assimilation • Colo. State U. – Surface emissivity error analysis • NESDIS/ORA – Retrievals of real-time vegetation properties • Improve use of satellite data in ocean data assimilation • U. Md – Ocean data assimilation bias correction • Columbia U. – Use of altimeter data • NRL (Monterey) – Aerosol contamination in SST Retrievals

50. Future Plans for Community Models