National Centers for Environmental Prediction

1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”

4. 1954 - Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit formed 1961 - Full funding from US Weather Bureau AD, DD,FD,ExFD 1974 – Move to WWB 1979 – CAC created 1984 – additions Computer Operations from NOAA NHC NSSFC 1995 – NCEP created NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC, AWC, SPC (move to Norman in ’97), TPC SEC becomes NCEP’s 9th center (remains an OAR lab) 2004 – SEC enters NWS History of NCEP

5. Total FTE: 426* 131 Contractors/24 Visitors *As of 10/1/04 *51 FTE

6. NCEP Mission Statement NCEP delivers national and global weather, climate, ocean and water guidance, forecasts, warnings, and analyses to its NWS Partners and External User Communities. These products and services respond to user needs to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy, and support the nation’s environmental information database. NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center Space Environment Center Tropical Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center

8. NCEP Central Operations (NCO) • Operates and maintains the operational suite of the numerical analyses and forecast models and prepares NCEP products for dissemination • Ingest and quality control of observational data from around the world • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

9. Computing Capability $20M/Year Investment Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) • Receives Over 116 Million Global Observations Daily • Sustained Computational Speed: 450 Billion Calculations/Sec • Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day • Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) • Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) • Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) • Upgraded 2.5x by October 1, 2004 • Backup for operational side: Fairmont, WV installation Fall’04

10. Environmental Modeling Center Develops and improves numerical weather, climate hydrological and ocean prediction through a broad program of applied research in data analysis, modeling and product development • Global, regional domains • Weather, climate, hurricane, ocean, ozone models • Forecasts out to 16 days

11. NCEP Operational Models Eta 12 km, 60 levels, 84 hrs at 0 , 6, 12 and 18Z Global Forecast System (GFS) T254 (~55 km) to 3.5 days (84 hrs), 64 levels T170 (~75 km) to 7.5 days (180 hrs), 42 levels T126 (~105 km) to 16 days (384 hrs), 28 levels 16 days (384 hrs)/4 times per day RUC 20 km, 50 levels 12 hrs at 0,3,6,9,12,15,18,21Z 3 hrs at 1,2,4,5,7,8,10,11,13,14, 16,17,19,20,22,23Z Climate Forecast System (CFS) T62 (~200 km), 64 levels, 7 months (20 members) coupled w/GFDL quasi-global MOM3 ocean model Ensembles global 10 members at 00, 06,12,18Z T126 (~105 km) to 180 hrs, T62 (210 km) to 384 hrs 28 levels, 16 days (384 hrs) regional 10 members at 0 and 12Z 48 km, 45 levels, 63 hrs from 9 and 21Z Wave Model global - 1.25 x 1.0 deg lat/lon Alaskan Regional - .5 x .25 deg lat/lon Western North Atlantic - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon Eastern North Pacific - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon 1 level, 168 hrs/4 times per day North Atlantic Hurricane (seasonal) North Pacific Hurricane (seasonal) .25 x .25 deg lat/lon 1 level 78 hours/4 times per day GFDL Hurricane Model coupled ocean-atmosphere Two nests (0.5, 1/6 deg lat/lon) 42 levels 126 hrs at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z

12. High Resolution Applications • Six Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) High resolution Window nested runs (all 8 km except 10 km Alaska) - once per day to 48 hours

13. High Resolution Applications • Six Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) High resolution Window nested runs (all 8 km except 10 km Alaska) - once per day to 48 hours • Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension (DGEX) • 12 km, 60 lvl (downscaled locally to 5km using SmartInit scripts) • CONUS at 06 and 18Z, AK at 00 and 12Z • 84-192 h, 6-h frequency

14. High Resolution Applications • Fire weather runs for IMET support – 8 km NMM runs in one of 26 areas of coverage, each about 900 km square up to 4/day; area selected by Boise National Interagency Fire Center -SPC • Dispersion model run on demand using 4 km NMM for Homeland Security

15. Fire Weather IMET Support 12 km Eta 8 km NMM 8 km NMM captures CA coastal winds Green – model winds Red – observed winds

17. Hydrometeorological Prediction Center • Provides forecast, guidance, and analysis products and services in support of the daily public forecasting activities of the National Weather Service and its customers • Quantitative precipitation forecasts, excessive rainfall, river flood outlook, and heavy ice & snow guidance • medium-range guidance (Days 3-7) • model diagnostic discussions and associated graphics tools • surface analyses & basic weather forecasts • International Training Desks • Winter Weather products • Provides tailored weather support to other government agencies in emergency and special situations.

18. Day 1 QPF - 24 hour accumulated precipitation from HPC

20. Ocean Prediction Center • Provides atmospheric and oceanographic warning, forecast, and analysis products and services for thenorth Atlantic and north Pacific • Atlantic and Pacific high seas • narrative warnings & forecasts to 48 h • graphic analyses and forecasts to 96 h • Offshore warnings • Sea-state analysis and forecast graphics • Weather analysis and forecast narratives • Global quality control of marine observations

21. Climate Prediction Center • Assesses and predicts the impacts of short-term climate variability, emphasizing enhanced risks of weather related extreme events, for use in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains. • Climate Outlooks • Tropical Pacific SSTs • Seasonal and Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies • Seasonal Drought Outlooks • Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks • Day 6-10 and 8-14 Outlooks • Hazard Assessments – Day 3-14 – Weather/Climate Connection • UV Index • Climate monitoring • Oceans, drought, temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, ozone

22. Aviation Weather Center • Provides aviation warnings and forecasts of hazardous flight conditions at all levels within domestic and international airspace • Domestic programs • Area Forecast (FA) • AIRMETs/SIGMETs icing, turbulence, IFR, volcanic ash (WS) • Convective SIGMETs thunderstorms, valid 2 hrs, outlook valid 2-6 hrs (WST) • CCFP significant thunderstorm outlook (2/4/6 hrs) • Low Level SIGWX prog • International Products • Gulf of Mexico Area Forecast for Helicopters • Caribbean Area Forecast for General Aviation • International SIGMETs for 7 Oceanic Areas • High Level Significant Weather Charts for 7 ICAO areas • International Flight Folder Documentation Program (IFFDP)

23. Storm Prediction Center • Provides timely and accurate forecasts and watches for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over the contiguous United States. The SPC also monitors heavy rain, heavy snow, and fire weather events across the U.S. and issues specific products for those hazards. • Severe Weather Watches • Day 1, 2 and 3 Convective Outlooks • Day 1 and 2 Fire Weather Outlooks • Mesoscale Discussions

25. Tropical Prediction Center • Provides official NWS forecasts of the movement and strength of tropical weather systems and issues the appropriate watches and warnings for the US and surrounding area. • Tropical cyclone products include tropical cyclone forecast/advisories, discussions, strike probabilities, and position estimates • Tropical marine products include high seas forecasts for the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and south Pacific Oceans and offshore forecasts for for the southwest north Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.

26. Thursday, 9/18/03 12 PM EDT 5-day forecast Hurricane Isabel 3-day forecast

28. Space Environment Center • Provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth • Monitors solar and geomagnetic activity 24 hours a day, alerts users when possibly disruptive or dangerous changes occur in the space environment and issues daily forecasts of space environment conditions • acts as the World Warning Agency for the space environment. • Synthesizes and disseminates information about past, present, and future conditions in the space environment for space weather users

29. Severe Storm Outlooks Fire Weather Outlooks Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts to 5 days Marine Weather Discussions Model Discussions Severe Weather Watches Hurricane Watches and Warnings Aviation Warnings (Convective, Turbulence, Icing) Climate Forecasts (Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual) Marine High Seas Forecasts Solar Monitoring – geomagnetic storm forecasts What Does NCEP Do? Guidance to Support WFO/RFC National Products • Model Development and Applications, including Data Assimilation • Ocean Models for Climate Prediction; Coastal Ocean Forecast System; Wave Models • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

30. NCEP Productshttp://www.ncep.noaa.gov Hydrometeorological Prediction Center http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Tropical Prediction Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Ocean Prediction Center http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Storm Prediction Center http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Aviation Weather Center http://aviationweather.gov/ Space Environment Center http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ncep/