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Agenda

Agenda. German electricity mix Political Targets Price Formation at the Whole Sale Market Historic Prices and Explanation patterns Surcharge for RES Special analysis for future solar c osts. Agenda. German electricity mix Political Targets

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Agenda

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  1. Agenda German electricity mix Political Targets Price Formation attheWholeSale Market HistoricPrices andExplanation patterns Surchargefor RES Special analysisforfuture solar costs

  2. Agenda German electricity mix Political Targets Price Formation attheWholeSale Market HistoricPrices andExplanation patterns Surchargefor RES Special analysisforfuture solar costs

  3. Power Plants in Germany Federal Network Agency ca. 96 GW conventional(Aug 2012) ca. 70 GW renewable(Jun 2012) InstalledCapacity-> 166 GW Source: Federal Environment Agency

  4. Gross Electricity Production in Germany 2011: 612,1 TWh Consumption: 605,8 TWhExport: 6,3 TWh Oil, Others Lignite Renewable 20% Nuclear Hard coal Natural Gas 5 Source: AG Energiebilanzen; ownfigure

  5. Development ofrenewablecapacities in Germany Source: AG EEStat; ownfigure

  6. Development ofrenewableelectricityproduction in Germany Source: AG EEStat; ownfigure

  7. Agenda German electricity mix Political Targets Price Formation attheWholeSale Market HistoricPrices andExplanation patterns Surchargefor RES Special analysisforfuture solar costs

  8. AtomicEnergyAct 2011 8 out ofservice 9 operatingtill 2015 - 2022 2021 2022 2021 2015 2022 2019 2017 2021 2022 Source: http://de.wikiactu.com, ownfigure

  9. German targetsforelectricitygrossconsumption EnergyConceptofthe German Government, Autumn 2010 2050 2040 80% renewable 2030 65% 2020 50% -25% (comparedto 2008) 35% -10% (comparedto 2008)

  10. Agenda German electricity mix Political Targets Price Formation attheWholeSale Market HistoricPrices andExplanation patterns Surchargefor RES Special analysisforfuture solar costs

  11. Consumer priceforelectricityGermany 2011 Source: Federal Network Agency, ownfigure

  12. Meritorderof power plants price

  13. Meritorder – withoutnuclear price

  14. Meritorder – withmoreRES price

  15. Agenda German electricity mix Political Targets Price Formation attheWholeSale Market HistoricPrices andExplanation patterns Surchargefor RES Special analysisforfuture solar costs

  16. Historic Prices Base Power: dayahead & Y +1

  17. Historic Prices (Fuel, CO2, Base Power )

  18. Historic Prices (Base) and Explanation

  19. Historic Prices (Peak) and Explanation

  20. Historic Prices (Peak) and Explanation

  21. Agenda German electricity mix Political Targets Price Formation attheWholeSale Market HistoricPrices andExplanation patterns Surchargefor RES Special analysisforfuture solar costs

  22. Consumer priceforelectricityGermany 2011 Source: Federal Network Agency, ownfigure

  23. Feed-in tarifffor RES § • RenewableEnergiesAct: • guaranteedandpriorisedfeed-in • guaranteedpayment

  24. RES-costsandwholesalemarket € supplycurveofconventional power plants demand differential costs arereallocated to all consumers= RES surcharge guaranteed feed-in tariff electricityprice proceeds for TSOs of RES-sale MWh RES-electricityproduction

  25. RES-surcharge: difference 2013 - 2012 Contributions of the most important factors influencing the increase of the German EEG surcharge in 2013 (5,3 ct / kWh) compared to 2012 (3,6 ct / kWh) 1.68ct/kWh overall Source: CalculationsbyOeko-Institut

  26. Agenda German electricity mix Political Targets Costsand Price Formation attheWholeSale Market Surchargefor RES Special analysisforfuture solar costs

  27. Decreaseoffuturefeed-in tariffforphotovoltaics Source: EEG, CalculationsbyOeko-Institut

  28. Future solar electricityproduction … in theyears 2012 bis 2016 orderedbyconstructionyearsofplants Source: CalculationsbyOeko-Institut

  29. Future costsfor solar electricity … in theyears 2012 bis 2016 orderedbyconstructionyearsofplants Source: CalculationsbyOeko-Institut

  30. Future shareof RES surchargefor solar electricity … in theyears 2012 bis 2016 orderedbyconstructionyearsofplants Source: CalculationsbyOeko-Institut

  31. Future pricedevelopmentforconsumers? • liberalisedmarket • more RES „energyonlymarkets“ will not beenough capacitypayments? Source: Federal Network Agency, ownfigure

  32. Thankyou! www.oeko.de c.loreck@oeko.de

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