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Adapting to a Changing Climate: A Watershed Perspective

Adapting to a Changing Climate: A Watershed Perspective. Climate Change Forum April 15, 2013 Paul Lehman Mississippi Valley Conservation. Adaptation. The science is clear. It shows us that climate change is an issue of today – not one of tomorrow

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Adapting to a Changing Climate: A Watershed Perspective

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  1. Adapting to a Changing Climate:A Watershed Perspective Climate Change Forum April 15, 2013 Paul Lehman Mississippi Valley Conservation

  2. Adaptation • The science is clear. It shows us that climate change is an issue of today – not one of tomorrow • Climate change is an economic issue, a social issue, and an environmental issue • We reduce greenhouse gas emissions to address global causes, we adapt to address local consequences • Adaptation involves all levels of government, business, industry, community groups and individuals • Local leadership and action is critical

  3. City of Peterborough – July 2004 Fall River at Outlet of Sharbot Lake – August 2012

  4. MVC - Climate Change Adaptation Work • Water Resources, Fish and Fisheries: Sensitivities, Impacts and Adaptation to a Changing Climate - 2007 • Collaborative study with Queen’s University • Weathering the Change Public Information Workshops - 2007 • Climate Change Effects On Reservoir Operation Policies In The Mississippi Valley Watershed - 2011 • Partnership through Guelph University

  5. Risk Assessment • Preliminary analysis, problem definition/scoping • Quantify projected changes in precipitation and temperature • Model hydrologic response • Assess reservoir performance and capacity for satisfying constraints and objectives • Assess secondary impacts (fisheries/water quality)

  6. Water Resource Impact Assessment • A2 emissions scenario – CGCM II climate model downscaled to Mississippi R. watershed • temperature • precipitation • Four periods modeled • Base period 1974 – 2002 • Future periods (2010 – 2039, 2040 – 2069, 2070 – 2099)

  7. Mean Annual Flow Comparison Minimum Streamflow objective

  8. Existing Highly variable flows over fall/winter Potential risks: achieving summer recreation targets water supply targets shoreline damage unsafe ice conditions Implications

  9. Stream flow Reservoir target

  10. Stream flow Reservoir target

  11. Building Local Adaptation Capacity • Climate Change Information Workshops • Three meetings held in 2012 • Local municipalities and agencies • 2012 Drought Workshop – 2013 • Multiple speaking engagements • Engage local municipalities and agencies in collaborating on vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning • Uncertainty on how to proceed • Lack of political direction • Tie-in with municipal priorities

  12. Vulnerability Assessment • Discussions between MNR, MVC and RVCA to consider a pilot application of the “Practitioner’s Guide to Climate Change Adaptation in Ontario’s Ecosystems to Mississippi-Rideau area • Access to a suite of related information, research reports • Case history experience from the Lake Simcoe • and Clay Belt exercises • Assistance in designing a strategy • process tailored to Mississippi-Rideau • with improvements based on lessoned learned • A provincial and national network of experts, • researchers, climate scientists • Potential funding (unconfirmed)

  13. Mississippi – Rideau Watersheds

  14. Potential Vulnerability Themes for Mississippi – Rideau Watershed Area • Emergency Preparedness • Outdoor Recreation and Tourism • Hydrology/Water levels • Organizational Capacity • Wildlife • Forest Cover and Terrestrial Habitat • Water Power • Invasive Species • Species at Risk • Fisheries • Aquatic Habitat • Forest Fire/disturbance • Human Health • Others?

  15. Thank you • Mississippi Valley Conservation • http://www.mvc.on.ca/ • plehman@mvc.on.ca

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