How LCA is Used in the Implementation of AB32: LCFS Example

1. How LCA is Used in the Implementation of AB32: LCFS Example By Audrey Barrett, Yifen Chen, Andrew Kosinski and Clara Nagy Source: http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs.htm, Accessed Oct 17, 2009.

2. Outline Introduction of AB 32 Introduction of LCA Low Carbon Fuel Standard Conclusions and Suggestions

3. AB 32 Intro Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, an environmental law in California The bill establishes a timetable to bring California into near compliance with the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol. AB 32 signed 2020 Target set Adoption of scoping plan measures Return to 1990 emissions 2011 2006Sep. 2007 Dec. 2008 Dec. 2007 July 2010 through 2020 Early actions adopted Scoping plan adopted Measure implementation Work toward 2050 The California Air Resources Board, “Climate Change Scoping Plan,” December 2008.

4. Global Warming in California The Sierra snowpack, an important source of water supply for the state, has shrunk 10 percent in the last 100 years. Sea level at the Golden Gate Bridge has been increased about 8 inches over the past 100 years. http://www.kristianbjornard.com/files/imagecache/Node-Viewing-Size/files/pfolio/global_warming_is_uncool.gif, Accessed Oct. 12, ‘09

5. The Goal Green house gas target  return to the level of 1990 in 2020. the long-term 2050 goal is reduce California’s greenhouse gas emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels. The target requires the reduction of 169 MTCO2E (~30%) from the projected emissions (BAU). Reduce 42 MMTCO2E, or almost 10 percent, from 2002-2004 average emissions. Source: The California Air Resources Board, “Climate Change Scoping Plan,” December 2008.

6. California GHG Profile Emissions-based vs. End use (demand side)-based. Source: Climate Change Scoping Plan, the California Air Resources Board for the State of California, 2008.

7. Programs under AB32 The GHG emission reduction target in LCFS is 15 MMTCO2 by 2020, whereas the total reductions is 174 MMTCO2. Source: The California Air Resources Board, “Climate Change Scoping Plan,” December 2008.

8. Outline Introduction of AB 32 Introduction of LCA Low Carbon Fuel Standard Conclusion and Suggestions

9. Life Cycle What is a Life Cycle? A Life Cycle describes the entire existence of a product or service, as a whole, or part.

10. Life Cycle Assessment Quantification of environmental (mostly) damages of products and/or services. Commonly these quantifications of damages are in terms of GHG, ozone or other pollutants that adversely affect our environment. LCA looks at more than just GHGs: money, health, environmental burdens, etc.

11. Chart of Concrete Life Cycle Source: The American Institute of Architects, “Material Report: Concrete” Environmental Resource Guide, 1997.

12. Using LCA for ‘Green Design’ LCA quantifies the entire effect of a product, and also the effect for each part of the life cycle. Designers can then use these results to reduce the overall effect of a product/service.

13. Outline Introduction of AB 32 Introduction of LCA Low Carbon Fuel Standard Conclusion and Suggestions

14. Low Carbon Fuel Standard requires that the carbon intensity (gCO2e/MJ) of all transportation fuels sold in California be reduced by 10% by 2020 applies to refiners, blenders, producers and importers of fuels Signing of Executive Order S-1-07. January 18th, 2007. Sacramento, California. Source: http://gov.ca.gov/index.php?/press-release/5174/, Accessed Oct 15, 2009.

15. Strategies to meet LCFS Blend biofuels with diesel and gasoline Promote alternative fuel use Improve the efficiency of the oil refinement and production process High polluters buy credits from low-GHG fuel suppliers

16. GREET model Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation • Measures the carbon intensity of transportation fuels Source: GREET. (Adopted in April 2009 by ARB)

17. GREET path: Biodiesel from soybean Source: Detailed California-Modified GREET Pathway for Biodiesel (Esterified Soyoil) from Midwest Soybeans – ARB

18. Interface with AB32 Intensity-based LCFS is separate to emissions-based hard cap AB32 LCFS will surely be linked with broader AB32 regulatory system, including some overlaps

19. Outline Introduction of AB 32 Introduction of LCA Low Carbon Fuel Standard Conclusion and Suggestions

20. A More Complete LCA for LCFS • In addition to upstream emissions, assess: • Available infrastructure & capital costs to expand infrastructure • Amount of water needed/gallon of fuel • Potential disease & environmental burdens • Changes to electricity demand • Extend end-year past 2020 • Increase the boundary to entire U.S.

21. A More Complete LCA for LCFS (continued) • Infrastructure, Pipelines: ethanol mixes with water and is corrosive to pipes1 • Water: heavy increases in use are not captured if only concerned with C-emissions • Disease Burden: • Changing location of emissions → health & atmospheric effects of NOx, PM emissions • 2nd and 3rd Generation Biofuels: less is known about their toxicity → e.g.) dimethyl furan

22. A More Effective LCFS:Address the Below Concerns • Extend program end-year past 2020 • Don’t want to get stuck with an intermediary biofuel (like corn-based ethanol) • Increase program boundary to entire U.S. • Eliminate the domestic “reshuffling effect”2

23. Conclusion Capturing Upstream Emissions: A Good Start! Only 20% total GHG emissions from petroleum Almost total lifecycle GHG emissions for biofuels, electricity and hydrogen A large portion of heavy oil and tar sand GHG emissions3 Carbon intensity approach Flexibility among technologies used - positive Combo of regulatory & market based mechanisms → find the most cost effective reduction measure → political acceptance

24. References • http://www.enewsbuilder.net/aopl/e_article000570935.cfm, “In the Pipe: Increased Ethanol Use Creates Challenges,” Association of Oil Pipelines, April 2006. Accessed on October 19, 2009. • Wolfram, Catherine: Presentation - Energy and Environmental Markets, UCB Class: MBA 212, April, 2009 • Sperling, Daniel and Sonia Yeh, “Low Carbon Fuel Standards,” Issues in Science and Technology, Winter 2009.