Lessons Learned from Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma

1. Maintenance of Daily Functioning of U.S. Society in the Face of Threats to our Infrastructure Lessons Learned from Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma • During the 2005 season key information was available 36 hours to 96 hours before landfall. Whether information was used depended upon meeting the critical criteria for decision support information LA-UR-05-9387

2. Three Criteria for Actionable Information • Is the information credible? Decision makers must have a frame of reference created through validation exercises, simulations, or the past. • Is the information salient? The information must answer the critical questions and be presented to the decision maker at the moment needed. Overload may result in non-use of credible information. • Is the information legitimate? Credible and salient information presented from unofficial sources may be discounted. The information needs to survive the decision maker’s belief filter LA-UR-05-9387

3. Actionable Predictions Many models and predictions can provide the decision makers the support they require Independently, will they be there in a credible, salient and legitimate form when decision makers need them? Or do we need to weave the models together to provide decision makers with their Common Operating Picture? LA-UR-05-9387

4. How a National Integrated Fast Response Modeling Capability might meet this need • A series of model relationships can begin to be woven into a roadmap of inputs/outputs for: • extreme weather modeling, • the infrastructure impact and cascading modeling • the debris, waterways and flooding modeling • the transportation and response models LA-UR-05-9387

5. One attempt at an integrated system LA-UR-05-9387

6. DOE National Laboratories and Facilities INEEL ANL PNNL BNL Ames LLNL NETL NTS SNL ORNL LANL OEA DOE Energy Information Administration Emergency Operations Center Virtual Team Concept • Federal Agencies • DHS • DOD • DOT • DOC • Other • States • Private Sector/ISACs Virtual Analytic Team LANL led Analytic Capabilities Coordination NETL Data and Information Sharing LANL led Analytic Requirements Data Other DOE Offices • IN • OETD • SO Emergency Communication Network (ECN) LA-UR-05-9387

7. National Impacts Visualization Analysis Process • 1 Hour Response (Informational Phase) • Maps of energy infrastructure impacted • Identification of potential assets and companies affected 8+ Hour Response (Analysis Phase) Economic Impacts Analysis Tools GIS (Baseline Analysis) Interdependence Simulation Tools • 4 Hour Response (Assessment Phase) • Annotated maps • Initial impact assessments • Area impacted • Population • Consequences • Energy infrastructure • Restoration times Network Analysis Tools LA-UR-05-9387

8. Quick-Response Process LA-UR-05-9387

9. How might a roadmap answer the new decision maker questions? One possible roadmap that integrates the extreme weather models, infrastructure failure and restoration models, the USACE emergency response models, and economic models is described as an example. LA-UR-05-9387

10. Landfall and wind calculations Electric Transmission Lines& Power Plants Natural Gas Pipelines, ProcessingPlants & Compressors LA-UR-05-9387

11. Wind Damage Likelihood LA-UR-05-9387

12. Hurricane Dennis Outage Restoration LA-UR-05-9387

13. Time History – Actual vs. Predicted LA-UR-05-9387

14. Hurricane Katrina Ice Model Landfall Plus About24 Hours LA-UR-05-9387

15. Storm Surge Potential LA-UR-05-9387

16. Actionable Maps on the effect of flooding on Energy Commerce Assets LA-UR-05-9387

17. Summary • The time is right to discuss a series of model relationships that we can now weave into a roadmap of inputs/outputs for: • extreme weather modeling, • the infrastructure impact and cascading modeling • the debris, waterways and flooding modeling • the transportation and response models LA-UR-05-9387