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Dealing with Uncertainty:

Dealing with Uncertainty:. How Snow College students “START SMART”. Statewide Retention Conference, March 5, 2008 Presenters: Beckie Hermansen , Craig Mathie , Mat Barreiro. Exchange. EXCHANGE Of student’s time, efforts, knowledge for education offered by the institution. Student.

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Dealing with Uncertainty:

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  1. Dealing with Uncertainty: How Snow College students “START SMART” Statewide Retention Conference, March 5, 2008 Presenters: BeckieHermansen, Craig Mathie, Mat Barreiro

  2. Exchange EXCHANGEOf student’s time, efforts, knowledge for education offered by the institution Student Institution • Explicit Contracts and Implicit Contracts • Little or no guarantee = uncertainty

  3. Uncertainty Persistence and Graduation Uncertainty Anticipatory Socialization

  4. Registration Registration Graduation Graduation Socialization process marked by lower levels of uncertainty and lowered risk of pre-mature departure Anticipatory Socialization (Orientation) Postsecondary Socialization Socialization for students not participation in an orientation Socialization process marked by high levels of uncertainty and increased risk of exit from the institution Socialization for students participating in an orientation

  5. First Semester GPA First Year GPA Departure over time Graduation Rates Transfer Rates Survival over time Persistence Study Model CollegePersistence

  6. Start Smart Orientation • Began Fall 2000 • Faculty Section Leaders • 2 sophomore mentors • Two full-days prior to fall semester (activities, workshops, resources) • Three additional meetings (September, October, November) • Two one-on-one meetings with Section Leader • Text: Off to College • Finding your Niche exercise and Freshman Student Survey • Grading is Credit or Non-Credit • Enrollment not required but strongly encouraged • Only offered Fall semester

  7. Start Smart—the Experience!!! 2 DAYS SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER • Move in early!!! • Welcome Assembly • Section Meetings (2) • Ice Breaker Games • Library Tour/Activity • Computer Lab/Email • Majors Meetings • Life Skills Workshops • ID Card • Look for Jobs • Find your classes • Practical advice (“the ropes”) • Cafeteria Card • Bookstore • Registration • Cashiers/Pay Bill • Advisement • Parent’s Workshop(s) • President’s BBQ • Huge Evening Activity • New Student Survey • Section Meeting : • College Adjustment • Roommates • Dealing with Professors • Dealing with Parents • Homesickness • College Events • Basic Study Advice • Question/Answer • Section Meeting : • College Life • Test Anxiety • More Study Skills • Academic Resources • Personal Resources • Maintaining Health • Personal Management • Question/Answer • Section Meeting (1) • End of Term Advice • Preparing for Finals • “Finding you Niche” • Post Student Survey • Progress Reflection • Question/Answer Individual Meetings with Faculty Section Leader Individual Meetings with Faculty Section Leader Often one of the section meetings is a dinner or similar event held in the faculty member’s home. Faculty are reimbursed up to $75 for food expenses.

  8. Research Questions Do Start Smart students experience higher first semester and first year cumulative GPAs than non-Start Smart students? First Semester GPA First Year GPA Graduation Rates Transfer Rates Depart over Time Survival over Time • Do Start Smart students have higher graduation rates? • Do Start Smart students experience less attrition after the first full year of college than non-Start Smart students? • Do Start Smart students have higher transfer rates?

  9. Descriptive Statistics (N = 6,737) • 6 Cohorts (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005) • 3,764 Start Smart; 2,973 non-Start Smart • 4,153 (62%) female; 2,584 (38%) male • Average age = 19 • White = 93.1% • 88.8% Full-time, 11.2% Part-time • 87.8% Resident, 12.2% Non-Resident • Average High school GPA = 3.4 • Average ACT score = 20.65 (96% reported a score) • Degree = 36.5% awarded, 63.5% not awarded

  10. Averages: T1 GPA = 2.84High school GPA =3.4ACT Score = 20.65 RQ1: • Multiple Regression on First Semester Cumulative GPA : (r2) = .391 • Significant relationships: • ACT score (t(6462) = 26.403, p = .000 • Start Smart (t(6462) = 15.496, p = .000) • Gender (t(6462) = -11.693, p = .000) • High school GPA (t(6462) = 5.586, p = .000) Comparing 1st semester GPA: This indicated a relationship between Start Smart enrollment and 1st semester cumulative GPA; however, significant relationships were also found for ACT score, gender (female), and high school GPA. Start Smart indirectly influenced 1st semester cumulative grades to be at least one grade higher than non-Start Smart students.

  11. RQ1: Comparing 1st semester GPA:

  12. RQ1: • Multiple Regression on First Year Cumulative GPA, (r2) = .337 • Significant relationships: • ACT Score (t(5157) = 22.608, p = .000) • Gender (t(5157) = -10.711, p = .000) • Start Smart (t(5157) = 7.165, p = .000) • High school GPA t(5157) = 3.554, p = .000 Comparing 2nd semester GPA: Consistent with 1st semester findings, a relationship was found between Start Smart and 2nd semester cumulative GPA. Additional significant relationships were found for ACT score, gender (female), and high school GPA. Start Smart students generally had 2nd semester cumulative GPAs approximately one grade higher than their non-Start Smart peers.

  13. Averages: T2 GPA = 2.89High school GPA =3.4ACT Score = 20.65 RQ1: Comparing 2nd semester GPA:

  14. RQ2: • Correlation on Graduation Rate and Group, r = .185, α = .01 Comparing Graduation Rates Start Smart students graduated almost 2 to 1 (1.8:1.0) compared to non-Start Smart students by the 4th semester.

  15. RQ3: • Survival Analysis • Dependent Variable = Time and Status -- for this cohort there were 12 time intervals or semesters, excluding summer terms-- status was either censored (no event) or uncensored (terminating event) • Independent Variables = ~ Age ~ Gender ~ Ethnicity ~ High School GPA ~ ACT Score ~ Start Smart Comparing withdrawal over time

  16. RQ3: Comparing withdrawal over time Predicted Survival and Hazard Functions for the Fall 200 Freshman Cohort(00 equals non-Start Smart or Orientation participants; 1.00 = Start Smart Orientation students). Mean Life statistic: Start Smart = 4.0 semesters/ non-SS = 3.9 semesters

  17. RQ3: Comparing withdrawal by 5th semester Predicted Survival and Hazard Functions for the Fall 200 Freshman Cohort(00 equals non-Start Smart or Orientation participants; 1.00 = Start Smart Orientation students). Mean Life statistic: Start Smart = 3.4 semesters/ non-SS = 3.1 semesters

  18. RQ4: • Pearson Correlation: r = -.079; α = .05 Comparing Transfer Rates Non-Start Smart Transfer Rate = 116/556 or 21% Start Smart Transfer Rate = 96/587 or 16% It seemed that Start Smart students were less likely to transfer than their non-Start Smart peers.

  19. Implications • Survival analysis: • Incorporating time as a dependent variable (whether and when a terminating event occurs) • Different elements affecting persistence: • Pre-college characteristics • Collegiate characteristics • Predictive ability: • Logistic regression goes beyond correlation to prediction • CumGPA = Start Smart + ACT + HSGPA + Gender + Constant • In-depth assessment of effectiveness • Fiscal support of Start Smart • Comprehensive program assessment for accreditation • Support to competing enrollments and retention

  20. Recommendations • Interactions between predictors and time: • Highlight key departure times • Determine transient or permanent effects • Investigate decision-making processes at departure (the m-factor) • Develop responsive programs or policies at key departure times • Repetitive studies of subsequent cohorts • Comparative studies with “program-change” cohorts • Program Format: • New syllabus with GE Outcomes foundation • Start Smart working in tandem with Capstone • E-portfolios • Assessment of outcome achievement through pre and post-testing • More student success driven with a GE outcome base and enhanced faculty support (i.e. learning activities driven by GE outcomes). • Different text and meeting times (more substance) • Mandatory enrollment?

  21. Questions?

  22. THANK YOU! For copies of this presentation please go to http://www.snow.edu/ir/presentations.html

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