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Toward Modeling of River-Estuary-Ocean Interactions to Enhance Operational River Forecasting in the NOAA National Weather Service. Hassan Mashriqui Seann Reed Cecile Aschwanden Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD) National Weather Service (NWS) 4 March, 2009. Acknowledgement.
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Toward Modeling of River-Estuary-Ocean Interactions to Enhance Operational River Forecasting in the NOAA National Weather Service Hassan Mashriqui Seann Reed Cecile Aschwanden Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD) National Weather Service (NWS) 4 March, 2009
Acknowledgement • Jon Janowicz • Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Region 3 • Kevin Hlywiak • Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC), NWS
Current NOAA/NWS Hydrologic Service Delivery 13 River Forecast Centers (Colored) 122 Weather Forecast Offices (Outlined in Black) 3
MARFC SERFC Coastal Areas Outside the Forecast Zones LMRFC
River-Estuary-Ocean (REO) Interactions Estuary Freshwater Ocean Often we use numerical models to simulate these complex coastal environments
Model Types • 1D models – HEC-RAS/FLDWAV, SOBEK, MIKE 11 • 2D models – ADCIRC, MIKE 21, SELFE • 3D models – CBOFS2, SELFE, DELFT3D, MIKE 3D
River-Estuary-Ocean (REO) Interactions Modeling River MARFC Daily Forecast Boundary River Freshwater Estuary Interactions River Ocean Tide & Wind
The Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS) • Operational forecast system by Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS)/Coastal Survey Development Lab (CSDL) since August 2001 • Nowcast and forecast Water Level • Nowcast and forecast Wind • Forecast for the ports within Baltimore Harbor and Hampton Roads.
Little Falls near Washington, DCMARFC’s Forecast Pointon the Potomac River Inflow boundary for the CBOFS is 7 miles from Little Falls forecast point
Model Geometry is Important Error due to inaccurate boundary
1D HEC-RAS allows bridges to be coded in the model to determine the backwater effects. Many 2D/3D models do not have this capability
HEC-RAS simulated water level profiles for the Potomac River near Washington DC Chain Bridge near DC
Hurricane Isabel, 2003 HEC-RAS will simulate water level near DC Boundary Condition from CBOFS or SLOSH
HEC-RAS test simulation without freshwater inflow or wind forcing. Boundary tide at Lewisetta, Va and simulated water level near Washington DC Predicted water level near Washington DC Stage (ft) Input water level near Lewisetta, Va September 2003
Summary1D – Fast, ready to use, accounts for bridges2D/3D – Better physics, complexApplication – depends on the customer need, project location etc.