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Climate Variability and Potential Predictability in CFS

Climate Variability and Potential Predictability in CFS. Wilbur Y. Chen Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA. MDL. Total Variance. Clim. OBS. Diff. More > 1. than < 1. DML. ENSO DJFs. NEUT DJFs. OBS. DIFF. More Negative. More Positive. MDL. NEUT DJFs.

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Climate Variability and Potential Predictability in CFS

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  1. Climate Variability and Potential Predictabilityin CFS Wilbur Y. Chen Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA

  2. MDL Total Variance Clim OBS Diff

  3. More > 1. than < 1.

  4. DML ENSO DJFs NEUT DJFs OBS DIFF More Negative More Positive

  5. MDL NEUT DJFs ENSO DJFs OBS Less > 1. More >> 1. Ratio

  6. MDL VAR of ENS Means Versus ENS Spreads A B A B

  7. Neutral DJFs VAR of ENS Means Var of ENS Spreads ENSO DJFs Diff Behavior MDL

  8. MDL VAR Ratio = Neutral / ENSO Neut ENSO More > 1. More < 1.

  9. Warm DJFs VAR of ENS Means VAR of ENS Spreads Cold DJFs DIFF More Negat More Posit

  10. Potential Predictability VAR of Clim Signal ------------------------------------ Total VAR (Signal+noise)

  11. Potential Pred: ENSO vs Neut ENSO DJFs Neut DJFs

  12. Potential Pred: Warm vs Cold

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