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AHS and Later-Life Mobility

AHS and Later-Life Mobility. Miranda Dietz & Larry A. Rosenthal Goldman School of Public Policy UC-Berkeley. Motivation: Aging-In-Place and Real Estate Markets. Boomers Are Different! No Sun City for Us Hunch: Census Data Too Shallow To Capture Genuine Mobility Trends

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AHS and Later-Life Mobility

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  1. AHS and Later-Life Mobility Miranda Dietz & Larry A. Rosenthal Goldman School of Public Policy UC-Berkeley

  2. Motivation:Aging-In-Place and Real Estate Markets • Boomers Are Different! No Sun City for Us • Hunch: Census Data Too Shallow To Capture Genuine Mobility Trends • Exploration: Can AHS Longitudinal Structure For Housing Units Shed More Light?

  3. Strategy For Capturing Mobility In AHS • Ask All Householders in 2009:“When Did You Move In To This Place?” • Believe Their Answer! (Trust Recollection By Year) • More Important: Trust Recollection By Month • Problem: Don’t Know How Long Current Respondent Will Stay In The Future (“Right Censoring”) • Solution: Use Prior Biannual AHS Draws, By Unit, To Observe Completed Stays (“Backtracking”) • Concern: We Might Be Undersampling Short Stays (E.g., Arrivals-Departures Between Surveys)

  4. “Backtracking”

  5. AHS Mobility: Different Story

  6. Average Durations (HH-ers Over 40)

  7. Dispersion of Duration (HH-ers Over 40)

  8. Median Durations by Generation (Movers and Non-Movers)

  9. Comparing Movers and “Stayers”

  10. Mobility Over Age 40

  11. Example of Life Table (Duration of Stay)

  12. Closing Thoughts • Mobility vs. “Aging-In-Place”:AHS Provides A Unique Glimpse • Causes For Later-Life Duration Choice:More Complicated • Boomers Constrained By Reduced Savings, The Great Recession, AndThe Changing Nature of Work • Additional Research: • Generation-Mixing (“Hosting”) • Retirement vs. Continuing Labor-Market Attachment

  13. Thank you. http://urbanpolicy.berkeley.edu

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