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Department of Defence Canberra, June 28, 2013

Climate change and security. Professor Colin Butler ARC Future Fellow. Department of Defence Canberra, June 28, 2013. Climate change is a geopolitical "threat multiplier," UK climate envoy says Molly Peterson | March 5th, 2012. Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti. 2.

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Department of Defence Canberra, June 28, 2013

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  1. Climate change and security Professor Colin Butler ARC Future Fellow Department of Defence Canberra, June 28, 2013

  2. Climate change is a geopolitical "threat multiplier," UK climate envoy says Molly Peterson | March 5th, 2012 Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti 2

  3. A climate and resource security dialogue for the 21st century Date: Thursday 22 - Friday 23 March, 2012 Location:Lancaster House Hosted by the Foreign & Commonwealth Office in partnership with Wilton Park A climate and resource security dialogue for the 21st century focused on the emerging threat climate change poses to global security and prosperity.UN Security Council debate (07/11); Berlin conference Climate Diplomacy in Perspective (10/11).Climate change has the potential to exacerbate existing tensions and fragilities in states vulnerable to climate and resource stresses such as extreme weather.https://www.wiltonpark.org.uk/conference/wp1167/ 3

  4. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon climate change and conflict • "In coming decades, changes in our environment and the resulting upheavals from droughts to inundated coastal areas to loss of arable land are likely to become a major driver of war and conflict" March 1, 2007 4

  5. Climate Change: Multiplier of Conflicts and Regional Tensions From UK Ministry of Defence [May RM, 2007 Lowy Institute Lecture] Regions afflicted by problems due to environmental stresses: • population pressure • water shortage • climate change affecting crops • sea levelrise • pre-existing hunger • armed conflict, current/recent Water scarcity 5

  6. World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2007 6

  7. “The dangerous impacts of climate change can only be discussed in terms of nonlinear behavior.’’ Hans Joachim Schellnhuber 7

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  9. “If the country faces famine and widespread hunger … which loss of crops will almost certainly generate”.. “resultant situation could lead to a nuclear war at worst, and conversion of this part of the world into a centre for terror activities at best.” FatehUllah Khan Gandapur, former chair of Indus River System Authority (editorial April 2009) in Pakistan’s largest circulation daily newspaper. Bagla, P. 2010. Along the Indus River, Saber Rattling Over Water Security. Science, 328, 1226-1227. 9

  10. Climate change will affect the Asian water towers. Science (2010) “extremely important” “very important” 10

  11. The counterview Water conflicts avoided .. Scarcity increases pressure for peace e.g. De Stefano et al (2012). Climate change and the institutional resilience of international river basins. Journal of Peace Research, 49, 193-209. “The constant struggle for the waters of the Jordan .., and other life-giving Middle East rivers, little under-stood outside the region, was a principal cause of the 1967 Arab-Israeli war and could help spark a new all-out conflict.” e.g. Cooley (1984). The War over Water. Foreign Policy, 54, 3-26. 11

  12. Population/resources: an old debate Hung Liang-chi 1744-1809 Honda Toschiaki 1744-1821 Thomas Malthus 1766-1834 12

  13. Non-human carrying capacity 13

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  15. Human Carrying Capacitypopulation supportable, in good health, into the foreseeable future • Non-human species: CC = fn [natural capital] • Human CC = fn [Natural, social, human, built and financial “capitals”] • Inter-convertibility of types of “capital” (partial) • Ability to expand HCC via culture/technology • But: need to conserve the essential natural capital • And, as capital/person declines, so can co-operation (social capital) – risk of conflict 15

  16. Health determinants Environmental (e.g. food , water, energy) Material Scientific, Technical Police, military law, other determinants e.g. distribution now and in future Freedom (e.g. speech, travel, employment), policies Tolerance Security Health Research, technology, co-operation , eg vaccines, hospitals, health care systems Political Cultural e.g. Attitude to women, treatment of dying, tolerance 16

  17. Security determinants Environmental (e.g. food , water, energy) Material Military Law, local, national, international Behav- iour Security Freedom and responsibility Military personnel and hardware Political Cultural e.g. tolerance, sense of identity, anticipation 17

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