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The ATLSS Vegetative Succession Model

The ATLSS Vegetative Succession Model. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester ATLSS Project : University of Tennessee. Project web-site : www.atlss.org E-mail : sylv@tiem.utk.edu. Overview. Purpose of the model Application to restoration planning Model description Calibration/validation

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The ATLSS Vegetative Succession Model

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  1. The ATLSS Vegetative Succession Model Scott M. Duke-Sylvester ATLSS Project : University of Tennessee Project web-site : www.atlss.org E-mail : sylv@tiem.utk.edu

  2. Overview • Purpose of the model • Application to restoration planning • Model description • Calibration/validation • Development/delivery schedule • Availability

  3. Purpose of the vegetative succession model • Provide vegetative succession dynamics • Modeling changes to habitat is important for accurate modeling of higher trophic levels • A rigorous succession model would include process dynamics : Everglades Landscape Model (ELM) • The ATLSS objective is to interface with ELM, but also produce a alternative less complex succession model.

  4. Application to restoration planning • Provides another tool for assessing the potential for change due to alternative hydrologic scenarios • Directly through changes in habitat diversity and structure • Diversity : number of species, evenness • Structure : tree islands • Indirectly by providing a changing habitat for other models

  5. Model features • Time step : 1 year • Spatial scale : 500x500 meters • Possibly finer if computationally feasible • 58 habitat types (FGAP 6.6) • Stochastic process influenced by local environmental processes

  6. Model response • The model will simulate succession dynamics in response to a number of environmental processes • Hydrologic disturbance : hydroperiod • Nutrient disturbance : phosphorus • Fire disturbance • Response to disturbance is habitat type specific

  7. Model description • Space is broken into a set of discrete cells • Cell model • Starts with a habitat type: H0 • Set of alternative habitat types : H1 .. Hn • Transition probabilities from H0 to H0 .. Hn : P0 .. Pn • P0 .. Pn depend on the current environmental conditions • Cell model replicated in each discrete cell

  8. Cell Model • Allows for changes in cell habitat type • Allows for changes in transition probabilities in response to changing environmental conditions • Order of events: • Update current transition probabilities in response to environmental change • Determine the new habitat type for the cell

  9. Change in cell state H1 P1 P2 H0 H2 P0 Pn … Hn

  10. Change in cell state H1 P1 P2 H0 H2 P0 Pn … Hn

  11. Change in cell state H1 P1 P2 H0 H2 P0 Pn … Hn

  12. Change in transition probabilities H1 P1 P2 H0 H2 P0 Pn … Hn E0

  13. Change in transition probabilities H1 P1 P2 H0 H2 P0 Pn … Hn E0 Et

  14. Status • Currently: • Estimation of model parameters is complete • Paul Wetzel • Conceptual frame work • End year 2002: • Working draft • August 2003: • Model finished, results available • Publications

  15. Availability • Current plans • Sun/Solaris environment • C++/object oriented • Outputs will be posted at www.atlss.org • Executables available to collaborating agencies

  16. Collaborators • Paul Wetzel • Leonard Pearlstine : FGAP

  17. Contact information • E-mail : sylv@tiem.utk.edu • Website : www.atlss.org/~sylv

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