CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability)

1. CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) CLIVAR is an interdisciplinary research effort within the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) focusing on the variability and predictability of the slowly varying components of the climate system. CLIVAR investigates the physical and dynamical processes in the climate system that occur on seasonal, interannual, decadal and centennial time-scales. http://www.clivar.org

2. Advances in our knowledge of the coupled climate system require that we: • Describe and understand the physical processes responsible for climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal,and centennial time-scales, through the collection and analysis of observations and the development and application of models of thecoupled climate system, in cooperation with other relevant climate-research and observing programmes. • Extend the record of climate variability over the time-scales of interest through the assembly of quality-controlled paleoclimatic andinstrumental data sets. • Extend the range and accuracy of seasonal to interannual climateprediction through the development of global coupled predictive models. • Understand and predict the response of the climate system toincreases of radiatively active gases and aerosols and to compare these predictions to the observed climate record in order to detect the anthropogenic modification of the natural climate signal.

3. CLIVAR - Principal Research Areas

5. CLIVAR - global view

6. MedCLIVAR-Strengths • Regional focus and self-organization • Empirical analyses • Climate reconstructions • Regional reanalyses • Intersection/crosscut across other CLIVAR Principal Research Areas/Panels • Initial dialogue across air-sea interface • Potential for links to regional application studies

7. MedCLIVAR-”Weaknesses” • Empirical analyses • Synoptic time scale • Priority areas for climate reconstruction • Coupled model context • Predictability studies • Links to EU Framework studies, e.g., DEMETER, PROVOST, ENACT, ENSEMBLES • Links to major modelling centers • North African participation • Paleo Med Sea proxies? • Climate relevance of Med Sea ? Is there feedback to the atmosphere or is the Med merely passive? • Extent to which NAO/EA, Med outflow studies are covered by CLIVAR Atlantic Panel • Priorities? • Global change studies and links to IPCC

8. MedCLIVAR-Recommendations • Strengthen combined atm-ocn-land research • Need for a clearly identified MedCLIVAR champion • Map MedCLIVAR against CLIVAR Goals, Objectives, and Structure • Address weaknesses and incorporate response in White Paper • Recommend/prioritize research needed to advance understanding • Identify and develop resource plan • Identify how/why MedCLIVAR would benefit from being an (formal?) element of CLIVAR • Do you seek endorsement for a MedCLIVAR panel within CLIVAR, seek endorsement for a MedCLIVAR initiative (e.g., PIRATA, ASOF, AMMA, Indian Ocean Panel), or ?

12. CLIVAR objectives (1) • To describe and understand the physical processes responsible for climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time-scales, through the collection and analysis of observations and the development and application of models of the coupled climate system, in cooperation with other relevant climate-research and observing programmes. • To extend the record of climate variability over the time-scales of interest through the assembly of quality-controlled paleoclimatic and instrumental data.

13. CLIVAR objectives (2) • To extend the range and accuracy of seasonal to interannual climate prediction through the improvement of global and regional climate models. • To understand and predict the response of the climate system to changes in atmospheric composition and detect any anthropogenic modification of the climate system.