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The risks of climate change: international responses through adaptation and mitigation

The risks of climate change: international responses through adaptation and mitigation. Jean Palutikof National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility. What’s NCCARF up to?. ARGP: Stephen Garnett, Adaptation Strategies for Australian Birds

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The risks of climate change: international responses through adaptation and mitigation

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  1. The risks of climate change:international responses through adaptation and mitigation Jean Palutikof National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility

  2. What’s NCCARF up to? • ARGP: • Stephen Garnett, Adaptation Strategies for Australian Birds • Currently have a Call open for Indigenous Communities and Adaptation, which closes 28th October: information session this evening • Synthesis and Integrative Research Program: • Will open a Call in about 2 weeks on further topics • Planning for Phase 3

  3. The International Process

  4. UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol Framework Convention on Climate Change • Started at the Rio Summit, 1992 • Entered into force March 1994 • To consider actions to reduce global warming (mitigation) and • To manage whatever temperature increases are inevitable (adaptation) Kyoto Protocol • Sets up binding commitments • Adopted in Kyoto, December 1997 • Entered into force February 2005 • Australia signed December 2007 • First commitment period ends in 2012 Rio +20: 2012: June 2012

  5. COP-15: Copenhagen The UNFCCC holds an annual Conference of the Parties (to the Kyoto Protocol) to negotiate action Copenhagen was to put in place a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, and develop a roadmap It failed, leaving the international process in limbo

  6. Why did it fail? • The UNFCCC process is around one country one vote • The big emitters (now and future) won’t accept external policing: USA + • BRIC: Brazil, Russia, India, China • BASIC: Brazil, South Africa, India, China

  7. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, total • USA + BRIC: Brazil, Russia, India, China • USA + BASIC: Brazil, South Africa, India, China

  8. Outcome from Copenhagen • The Copenhagen Accord • Countries can pledge reductions, which they self police • It isn’t enough: • Even if countries met their pledges, unlikely to avoid ‘dangerous’ climate change (warming greater than 2oC) • COP-16 Cancun; COP-17 Cape Town

  9. COP-16 Cancún REDD+ [Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation] – a roadmap but no financing Green Climate Fund: legal architecture for management of the $100 billion by 2020 MRV: Monitoring, reporting and verification of adaptation and mitigation schemes Carbon Capture and Storage in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Kyoto Protocol "no gap" negotiations Restoration of the two-track negotiating process Cancun Adaptation Framework

  10. Over the next twelve months • Busy times • COP-17 Durban • Rio+20 in mid 2012 • Big science meetings: • Planet under Pressure • Arizona Adaptation meeting • IPCC Fifth Assessment author meetings, ready for delivery in 2013/14 • Getting ready for the carbon economy in Australia

  11. Who taxes carbon, who trades? Sweden introduced a carbon tax in 1991, followed by Finland, Norway, the Netherlands Japan has mandated a “household energy tax” equivalent to $21/ton of carbon The 25-member European Union has a carbon trading scheme with a Phase 2 price around $10-12 per tonne New Zealand is in the transition period of its ETS Regional schemes: British Columbia, Boulder CO, NSW, Tokyo …

  12. Role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  13. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Formed in 1988 under WMO and UNEP To provide assessments of the science of climate change for the UNFCCC Responsibility to provide policy makers with objective findings that are policy relevant but not policy prescriptive - an ‘honest broker’

  14. Inter-relationships of UNFCCC and IPCC

  15. The four AR4 reports • The Fourth Assessment began in 2002 • The three 1000-page Working Group reports, and the Synthesis Report, were published in 2007 • There were ~500 authors, three review periods • Some 2000 people involved altogether

  16. To produce an Assessment Report: • Elections to appoint Chair, Co-Chairs and Bureau 2002 Decision taken to produce report 2003 Outline approved by governments 2004 Authors and review editors selected 2004 Sept WGII 1st Lead Author Meeting - Vienna 2004 Dec Zero Order Draft (ZOD) Delivered 2005 Feb Informal Peer Review of ZOD Where the AR5 sits now 2005 Mar 2nd Lead Author Meeting - Australia 2005 June First Order Draft (FOD) Delivered 2005 Sept Expert Review of FOD 2005 Nov 3rd Lead Author Meeting - Mexico 2006 Apr Second Order Draft (SOD) Delivered 2006 July Government and Expert Review of SOD 2006 Sept 4th Lead Author Meeting – Cape Town 2006 Nov Final Government) Draft Delivered 2007 Feb Final Government Review 2007 Apr Approval by WGII Plenary 2007 Dec Publication

  17. The people in an IPCC Assessment • The IPCC Chair and the Vice-Chairs: elected • Secretariat: standing • Working Group: • Reconstituted for each Assessment cycle • 2 Co-Chairs and the Bureau: elected • A Technical Support Unit • Co-ordinating Lead Authors, 2 for each chapter • Lead Authors, typically 6 for each chapter • Review editors: 2 per chapter • Contributing Authors = 2000/assessment • Expert and government reviewers

  18. The product: The WGII Fourth Assessment Summary for Policymakers Technical Summary 1. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems SECTORS AND SYSTEMS 2. New assessment methodologies and the characterisation of future conditions 3. Fresh water resources and their management 4. Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services 5. Food, fibre and forest products 6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas 7. Industry, settlement, and society 8. Human health REGIONS 9: Africa, 10: Asia, 11: Australia and New Zealand, 12: Europe, 13: Latin America 14: North America, 15: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic), 16: Small Islands RESPONSES TO IMPACTS 17. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity 18. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation 19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change 20. Perspectives on climate change and sustainability

  19. The key is the Summary for Policymakers (SPM): A 15 page summary which is approved by governments, leading to acceptance of the underlying report

  20. The Approval Meeting • Government negotiators on the floor • IPCC on the podium: Co-Chairs, TSU, authors • Text of SPM is projected line by line and approved

  21. Roughly 20-30% of species are likely to be at high risk of irreversible extinction if global average temperature exceeds 1.5-2.5°C. * N [4.4] Text submitted to the Final Government Review Text projected at the Approval Meeting Approximately 20-30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5oC Final published text

  22. Contribution of the IPCC • Evolving the ‘accepted’ science • Definition of ‘dangerous’ climate change • +2oC global mean temperature • but baseline woolly • Thinking around how dangerous climate change can be avoided

  23. Evolution of the science FAR: insufficient observational evidence to make a statement SAR: ‘The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate’ TAR: ‘Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations’ AR4: ‘Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.’

  24. What is dangerous climate change?

  25. Avoiding dangerous climate change Tell us that global emissions have to peak by 2015-2020, and to decline rapidly until 2050 and beyond if dangerous climate change is to be avoided

  26. Strengths and weaknesses of the IPCC • The rigorous review process, by scientists and governments • Each chapter is reviewed three times • Elapsed time means science has moved on • The approval process, bringing together governments and scientists to approve the SPM line-by-line • Governments are ‘bought in’ to the key statements in the SPM • Science is ‘watered down’ • It is no more and no less than an Assessment • Perceived by governments as unthreatening and impartial • Widely misunderstood to do more • Each Assessment is largely free-standing • Able to renew itself for every Assessment • Lack of corporate memory

  27. Final messages • Where do we stand: • While governments hesitate, the evidence mounts: • Russian ban on wheat exports after the 2010 hot summer • Texas wildfires • Science under threat • IPCC subject to extensive evaluation e.g., IAC Report • Is the IPCC worthwhile? • Is there a need? • If so, how would we fill it without the IPCC? • The Australian carbon legislation is an important global development

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