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Assessment of Externalities from Major Accidents in Non-Nuclear Fuel Chains

This work package focuses on the assessment of major accidents in non-nuclear fuel chains, with a particular emphasis on severe accidents. The PSI database ENSAD is used as a basis, and an extension of the database will be performed including identification and acquisition of new sources. The work also involves a specific survey of historical data considering smaller accidents and the development of a concept for experience- and prediction-based dam risk assessment.

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Assessment of Externalities from Major Accidents in Non-Nuclear Fuel Chains

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  1. Assessment of externalities from major accidentsin non-nuclear fuel chains(Work Package 5) S. Hirschberg & P. Burgherr Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland EESD Energy Project NewExt: first progress meeting Bath (UK), 13 and 14 September 2001

  2. Content • Summary of work progress • Current status of PSI database ENSAD • Extension needs • Issues • Importance of smaller accidents • Probabilistic analysis for hydropower • Economic valuation • Tasks for next 6 months (+)

  3. Risk assessment – scope and goals • Assessment of major accidents in non-nuclear fuel chains with focus on the severe ones. The basis for this work is PSI’s database ENSAD. • In addition, an extension of the database including identification and acquisition of new sources will be performed. • Specific survey of historical data considering smaller accidents. • Development of a concept for experience- and prediction-based dam risk assessment.

  4. Severe Accident Definition(as used in ENSAD) • One or several of the following consequences: • At least 5 fatalities • At least 10 injured • At least 200 evacuees • Extensive ban on consumption of food • Release of hydrocarbons exceeding 10000 tonnes • Enforced clean-up of land and water over an area of at least 25 km2 • Economic loss of at least 5 million USD

  5. Some methodological issues • Definition of a severe accident that could be consistently applied to various energy chains. • Distinction between the estimates based on actual experience and on predictions utilizing logical system models. • Treatment of source data and the rational for screening. • Accounting for contributions from all stages of fuel cycles. • Role of risk perception/risk aversion. • Presentation of results.

  6. Major accident Databases Used by ENSAD

  7. The most important information sources forPSI's Energy-related Severe Accidents Database (ENSAD) • Major commercial and non-commercial accident databases • Journals, periodicals and books on specific energy systems • Technical reports issued by manufacturing and insurance companies, or by research institutes • National and international newspapers • Other publications, e.g. Conference Proceedings, Encyclopaedias, Annual Reports etc. • Plant operators • Consular authorities • International organisations (UN, OECD, European Community, etc.) • Organisations providing emergency services (Red Cross, UN, etc.) • Governmental organisations having an internal reporting system, such as police, fire brigades, labour and environmental inspectorates

  8. Implementation • Acquisition of relevant databases. • Implementation of the acquired databases on a personal computer. • Merging of the contents of the various databases within Microsoft’s Access. • Elimination of overlapping events and harmonisation of non-consistent information. • Identification of energy-related accidents and among them of accidents considered as severe. • Allocation of energy-related accidents to specific fuel cycles and subsequently to specific stages within each fuel cycle. • Searches utilising supplementary sources. • Application of PSA. • Implementation of the additional evidence into the database. • Evaluation.

  9. PSI's Energy-related Severe Accidents Database (ENSAD) and its Merits • 13914 accidents, of which • 10064 (72.3%) man-made • 3850 (27.7%) as natural • 4290 energy-related accidents, corresponding to: • 30.8% of all accidents • 42.6% of man-made accidents • Among the energy-related accidents 1943 (45.3%) are severe, of which 846 have 5 or more fatalities • In the period 1975‑1996 typically about 30 energy-related accidents with at least five fatalitiesoccurred each year;among them 1‑5 had consequences exceeding 100 fatalities. • Nearly 93% of the energy-related accidents occurred in the time period 1945‑1996 • 62% of all energy-related severe accidents with at least 5 fatalities occurred in the western world • Much improved coverage and balance between reporting levels for individual countries

  10. Energy-related Severe Accidents (1945-1996) Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998

  11. ENSAD Number of Accidents by Type and Damage Category 14000 12000 10000 Number ofAccidents 8000 6000 All Accidents Accident Type 4000 Natural 2000 Man-made Man-made Energy-related 0 Man-made Non-energy-related A B C D E F G H Damage Category A: B No threshold : C or D or E or F or G or H C D: E :at least 5 fatalities, at least 10 injuries, : at least 200 evacuees F: at least 10,000 t of pollutives releases of hydrocarbons and chemicals G: at least 25 km2 area of enforced clean up of land+water H: at least 5 Million US$ of economic loss Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998

  12. Number of fatalities in severe accidentsby oil chain step (1969-1996) Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998

  13. Severe Accidents Indicators for OECD and Non-OECD Countries Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998

  14. Energy-related Severe Accidents (1969-1996)Economic Losses Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998

  15. Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998

  16. Extension needs

  17. Severe vs smaller accidents • A severe accident should have one or several of the following consequences: • At least 5 fatalities • At least 10 injured • At least 200 evacuees • Extensive ban on consumption of food • Release of hydrocarbons exceeding 10000 tonnes • Enforced clean-up of land and water over an area of at least 25 km2 • Economic loss of at least 5 million USD  • A smaller accident does not match any of the above criteria

  18. Smaller vs severe accidents in ENSAD (1969-1996)

  19. Smaller vs severe accidents in ENSAD (1969-1996) Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998

  20. Smaller accidents 1996-2000 • Initial survey of OSH-ROM (MHIDAS, CISDOC, HSELINE etc) yielded a total of 28 fatalities and 48 fatalities.

  21. Smaller accidents in China‘s coal chain 1994-1999 Source: CETP-Project

  22. Smaller accidents in coal mining in the USA (1995-2000) Analysis based on MSHA statistics

  23. Treatment of smaller accidents • Use of extended ENSAD database as a starting point • Use of additional sources: • Occupational Health & Safety statistics • NEWCRONOS database by EUROSTAT • International Labour Organization statistics • etc

  24. Economic valuation • To what extent are non-nuclear accidents already internalized? • Differences between specific energy chains • Occupational vs public accidents • Small vs large accidents • Basis for monetisation • Value of statistical life • Damages other than loss of life

  25. Tasks for next 6 months (+) • Implementation of database extension up to year 2000 • First evaluations based on extended database • Data acquisition for smaller accidents • Initialization of hydropower analysis • Partner contributions to monetisation

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