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CC - CLIMATE CHANGE:

CC - CLIMATE CHANGE:. Causes, consequences and Combating CCC with particular reference to INDIA Professor Dr. M. Vikram Reddy, FAPAS, FFEAI Department of Ecology & Environ. Sciences Pondicherry Central University , Puducherry 605 014, INDIA E-mail: prof.mvikramreddy@yahoo.com.

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CC - CLIMATE CHANGE:

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  1. CC - CLIMATE CHANGE: Causes, consequences and Combating CCCwith particular reference to INDIA Professor Dr. M. Vikram Reddy,FAPAS,FFEAI Department of Ecology & Environ. Sciences Pondicherry Central University, Puducherry 605 014, INDIA E-mail: prof.mvikramreddy@yahoo.com i. Human Healtha) Infectious dieses such as malaria; b) Weather related mortality such as heat stressii.EcosystemBiodiversitya).Loss of biodiversity; b). Extinction of species iii.Water resources a). Water supply due to scarcity; b) Water quality c) Competition for water resources iv. Melting of Glaciers and Sea level risev. Agriculturea)ReducedCrop yield; b) increasing demand in irrigation

  2. What is climate change? • Climate change refers to any major change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in its measures (such as temp-erature, precipitation or wind) persisting for an extended period, typically decades or longer. • Climate change may be due to natural factors (changes in sun’s intensity)or natural process (changes in ocean circulation) or human activities that change the atmosphere’s composition (Ex. fossil fuel and forest & other vegetation burning) and the land surface (deforestation, reforestation, etc)

  3. Climate change is due to the global warming ****** • Global warming is due to the Greenhouse effect

  4. What is Global Warming? • Global warming is an average increase in the temperature of the atmosphere near the Earth’s surface as well as in the troposphere, which can contribute to changes in global climate pattern. • Global warming, in common usage, often refers to the warming that can occur as a result of increased emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) (i.e., CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SFs and O3) discharged due to various anthropogenic activities. • Thus, now there comes the threat of climate crisis – a threat that is real, rising, imminent and universal(SPAN, March/April, 2008).

  5. Greenhouse effect • Natural greenhouse gas effect known for last 175 years • Fourier (1827)- “atmosphere acts like glass of hothouse because it lets through light rays of the sun but retains the dark rays from the ground” • These trace gases are transparent to incoming short wave solar radiation • But absorb the outgoing long wave terrestrial radiation and remitting this energy in all directions • Thus fundamentally altering the radiation balance of the earth atmosphere system

  6. THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT?

  7. The long-term temperature record [The past 70 years have been the warmest in the past 1000]

  8. Global average surface temperaturerelative to end 19th century • Natural greenhouse gas effect known for last 175 years • Fourier (1827)- “atmosphere acts like glass of hothouse because it lets thru light rays of the sun but retains the dark rays from the ground” • These trace gases are transparent to incoming short wave solar radiation • But absorb the outgoing long wave terrestrial radiation and remitting this energy in all directions • Thus fundamentally altering the radiation balance of the earth atmosphere system

  9. The global instrumental temperature record • Quality instrument measurements begin about 1850 • Global record shows approximately 1 °C increase over past 150 years • Note “Dust Bowl” peak around 1940 • Warming is greater in Northern Hemisphere than Southern

  10. Global warmingup steadily According to NASA’s GISS (Goddard Inst. Space Studies) – • Global temperatures have been steadily rising since the early 1980s with no significant let up in the trend • The over all warming trend has held through out this decade. • 2000-2009 was the warmest decade ever; and 17 of the 20 warmest years have been recorded in the last two decades. • The global temperature continued to rise rapidly in the past decade and there has been no reduction in global warming trend of 0.15-0.200C per decade that began in the late 1970s. The earth’s surface has warmed by about 0.60C since the last 1800s • April of was the hottest month ever and that the year 2009 so far was the warmest on record in India since 1901 • As per NOAA, India has higher than normal temperatures all through this year, because of El Nino effect last year

  11. Percent of GHGs contributing to Global warming (GW) Kyoto Protocol recognizes six GHGs • CO2 (Carbon dioxide) [fossil fuel – coal, oil and natural gas; forest/vegetationburning; transportation] - 64 to 75 per cent • CH4 (Methane) [rice paddies, ‘managed ruminants’ –cattle, sheep, goats, buffalo & camels & oil extraction; coal mines] (24 times more GW potential than CO2) - 19 per cent • N2O (Nitrous oxide) [burning of garbage in dumping yards] (179 times more GW potential than CO2) - 06 per cent • HFCs (Hydrofluorocarbons) [aerosol propellants, air- conditioners, refrigerants, etc.] - 10.6 per cent - Hydrofluorocarbons (CFC gases are replaced by HFC coolants) - Perfluoro carbons(PFCs) - Sulfur hexafluoride(SF6) - 0.4 per cent

  12. Carbon dioxide is the largest contributor

  13. HFCs save Ozone layer, but make world more warmer • CFC gases were widely used in air-conditioning and refrigeration units before they were found damaging Ozone layer, and were banned under the 1987 Montreal Protocol • Replaced by HFCs – hydrofluorocarbons - have far less effect on Ozone layer;but have been revealed as extremely powerful GHGs - The biggest source of HFC emission is air-conditioning in vehicles • One tonne of HFC-23 used in refrigeration has the same global warming (GW) potential as 14,800 tonnes of CO2 • A tonne of HFC-134a, widely used in vehicle air-conditioning units, is equivalent to 1,430 tonnes of CO2; [N20 is 270 more potent than carbon dioxide] • It is warned that by 2050, HFCs could account for up to 19% of GW; by that time the contribution of HFCs to GW will be more than that of current global CO2 emission from houses and office buildings. Because, by 2050, the demand for HFCs is likely to increase by 800% compared with today’s figure

  14. Total GHG emissions 60 GtCO2-eq/yr 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2004 1970 1980 1990 2000 Between 1970 and 2004 Global Greenhouse Gas (GHGs) Emissions have increased by 70 %

  15. GHGs over the past millennium • Exponential increase over the past 1000 years in CO2, CH4, and N2O is clear • CO2 concentrations have increased by about 35% since pre-industrial times • Methane concentrations have more than doubled Source: 2001 IPCC report

  16. Possible potential – CO2 concentrations

  17. Estimates of Future Levels of CO2 The average change in the amount of atmospheric CO2 over the last 600,000 years has been just 22 ppm. It is now uniformly distributed over the earth's surface at a concentration of about 0.033% (or 330 ppm) (in clean air, it constituted 0.032%). The atmospheric CO2 levels Before Industrial Revolution - 280 ppm 1960 - 317 ppm 1999 - 368 ppm 2000 - 369 ppp Now i.e., 2008 - 380 ppm [It is rising roughly at a rate of about 1 ppm per year] It is projected that the global CO2 levels during 2010-2015 - 388-398 ppm {should be 350 ppm by 2050 to 2050-2060 - 463-623 ppm keep Temp. rise to within 20C}

  18. Possible potential - temperature

  19. Causes - Climate Change(CCC)

  20. Major greenhouse gas emitters • Most greenhouse emissions come from developed countries • US and Australia are leaders • The US, with 6% of the world’s population, contributes 25% of the total emissions

  21. Source: IPCC 2007 Contribution of different sectors in world to climate change. (Sources of Greenhouse Gas emissions)

  22. Sources of emissions • Industry (primarily electric power generation and cement production) is the leader • Transportation is second

  23. Carbon Emission Sources in US 6% 8% Power Plant 36% Transportation Industry 22% Agriculture Residential 28% Source: EPA - U.S. GHGE Inventory 2003 Sources of GHGs U.S. -- one fourth of the world’s total emissions. Energy-related activities—85% of total emissions on a carbon equivalent basis in 2001.

  24. Sources of GHGs – Recent estimates

  25. Contribution of different sectors in India to climate change?(Sources of Greenhouse Gas emissions in India;India’s Initial National Communication on Climate Change, 2004) (mainly because of Thermal power – electricity production and distribution system)Fossil fuel used in agriculture considered in energy sector

  26. India World’s 3rd biggest CO2emitter • India figured 3rd in the list of biggest CO2 emitter through power generation after China and the USA (according to The Center for Global Development - CGD) • The National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) toped the list of companies emitting out the deadly Gas, though NTPC (New Delhi) said that they are the most efficient producers of power using fossil fuel. • Out of India’s 63,80,000 tonnes of CO2 emission every year, NTPC alone contributed 18,60,000 t that constituted 30 per cent of the total gas release • The NTPC power plant at Talcher (Orissa) emitted the highest quantity of CO2. As many as16 such plants are in CGD’s “red alert” category.

  27. Relative Amounts of CO2 Emission • Since 1890 – Industrial Revolution • Total CO2 emitted by all nations – 1201 gigatons (with world CO2 emissions being about 26 billion tonnes per annum) • The advanced economic nations – 700 gt (58 % of total contribution) • The USA alone emitted - 333 gt (28 %) {Industrialized nations must cut their emission by 25-40 % of their present rates by 2020, ten years from now} • All developing nations together - 501 gt (~41%) • India’ contribution only - 31 gt (03 % China’s contribution - 104 gt (09 %) In other words, India – 17 % of world’s population emitted 03 % (about 1/5 of that US) China – 20 % of world’s population emitted 09 % USA – 4.5 % of world’s population emitted 28 % Rich nations – 20 % of world’s populat. emitted – 76% global C

  28. Relative Amounts of CO2 Emission • US citizens are biggest CO2 emitters - an annual average of 19.4 tonnes, while • Japanese emit 9.4 tonnes and • Indian emit 1.5 tonne • Ethiopean just 100 kg • Every adult just breathing produces about one kg CO2/day, which works out in average 4.3 tonnes of CO2 each year for every person on the planet

  29. Where will future emissions come from? • The US and Western Europe are the current leaders • Developing countries (particularly India, China, and Eastern Europe) will contribute a much larger share in the future, because of use of coal

  30. Consequence - Climate Change(CCC)

  31. WHAT CAN HAPPEN IF THE CLIMATE CHANGES? • While no one will be able to escape from the effects of climate change, everybody will be affected; it is the poorer people and developing countries who are most vulnerable to its negative impacts. • It will devastate the world.

  32. LIKELY IMPACTSC C i. Human Healtha) Infectious dieses such as malaria; b) Weather related mortality such as heat stressii.EcosystemBiodiversitya).Loss of biodiversity; b). Extinction of species iii.Water resources a). Water supply due to scarcity; b) Water quality c) Competition for water resources iv. Melting of Glaciers and Sea level risev. Agriculturea)ReducedCrop yield; b) increasing demand in irrigation

  33. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS i. Human Healtha) Infectious dieses such as malaria; b) Weather related mortality such as heat stressii.Agriculturea)ReducedCrop yield; b) increasing demand in irrigationiii.Ecosystem andBiodiversitya).Loss of biodiversity; b).Extinction of speciesiv.Water resources a). Water supply due to scarcity; b) Water quality c) Competition for water resourcesv. Melting of Glaciers and Sea level rise

  34. Temperature - CO2 rise effects • When the CO2 was low, the temperature was low and there was an ice age • Between 1975 and 1999, the average temperature increased from 13.94 to14.350C, an increase of 0.410C or 0.740F in 24 years • The sea level has risenover the last century by 20 – 30 cm (8 – 9 inch). The climate models indicated that it could rise by as much as one meter During this century (It is exaggerated – recent view) • Sea level rise could create climate refugees by millions in developing countries – Bangladesh, India, China, Indonesia, Vietnam and Philippines

  35. Future C C impacts: ASIA Melting of the Himalayan Glacier is projected to increase flooding, rock avalanches from destabilized slopes, and affect water resources within the next two to three decades, followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede.Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and Southeast Asia particularly in large river basins is projected to decrease due to climate change, which along with population growth and increasing demand arising from high standards of living, could adversely affect > a billion people by the 2050s.Coastal areas especially heavily-populated mega-delta regions in South, East and Southeast Asia, will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea

  36. C C IMPACT – Human Health Scientists warned that at least a dozen “deadly” diseases – cholera, plague, sleeping sickness and eloba (among the dozen) are spreading across the Earth due to C C. These diseases are lethal to both humans and wildlife [the later could give an early warning of the approach of the disease]. The diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise in East, South and Southeast Asia. The relative risks for these conditions is expected to be the largest by 2030 .The excess mortality due to heat stress in India and China is projected to be very high;Europe could face an increase in disease outbreak carried by insects and rodents as climate changes and becomes hotter and wetter (EU health experts)

  37. CC IMPACT – Rise in Temperature on Disease Vectors like mosquitoes -Rate of development (from egg to adults) will be faster- The densities of vectors will increase- Frequency of feeding and rate of digestion of blood meal will be faster- Frequency of egg laying will increase- Gonotrophic cycle [daily survival and man biting rates]and longevity for sporogony reduced at higher temperature - Death of mosquitoes at 400C

  38. CC IMPACT – Ecosystem and Biodiversity -About 20 to 30% of animal and plant species assessed so far are likely to be at higher risk of extinction if rise in global average temperature exceeds 1.5 to 2.50C (According to The 4th Assessment Report of IPCC)- The impact is already seen on amphibians and plant life; it is expected to put increasing pressure on mammals too, by destroying their environment Example – Arctic ice sheets for polar bears- The extinct golden toad in Costa Rican jungles & two types of Harlequin frogs were due to C C; raising temp. favoured a dangerous form of skin fungus (infectious diseases) entering their habitats - Up to 50% of Asia’stotal biodiversity is at risk.

  39. C C IMPACT – Water Resources - Gross per capita water availability in India would decline from ~ 1820 m3/ yr in 2001 to as low as ~1140 m3/yr in 2050- The projected decrease in the winter precipitation over Indian subcontinent would reduce the seasonal precipitation to three months [December to February] implying greater water stress- It leads to incidences of intense rainfall confining over fewer days implying increased frequency of floods during the monsoon; and direct runoff reducing groundwater recharging potential-More people are projected to be flooded every year

  40. CC IMPACT – Draught - Recent increases in drought are due at least in part to man-made greenhouse gases- Widespread increases in drought are predicted likely to put stress on plants and water resources- General crop growth in India may increase (reason – increased rainfall)- BUT – extra rainfall also means increased flooding- However – some models predict decreased rainfall and therefore more damage to crops

  41. Increase in moderate drought over the last 50 years • Natural greenhouse gas effect known for last 175 years • Fourier (1827)- “atmosphere acts like glass of hothouse because it lets thru light rays of the sun but retains the dark rays from the ground” • These trace gases are transparent to incoming short wave solar radiation • But absorb the outgoing long wave terrestrial radiation and remitting this energy in all directions • Thus fundamentally altering the radiation balance of the earth atmosphere system

  42. Cumulative loss of glacier mass in many regions During the 20th century, glaciers and ice caps have experienced widespread mass losses and have contributed to sea level rise. CC IMPACT – Glacier Melting

  43. a) Global mean temperature b) Global average sea level c) Northern hemisphere Snow cover CC IMPACT – Glacier Melting & Sea Level Rise

  44. Global average sea level rise • Global sea level will rise between 0.3 and 0.9 m, depending on scenario • Main causes: i. melting polar ice, and ii. thermal expansion of water Source: IPCC, 2001

  45. The Antarctic & the Greenland Ice Sheet Thickness: 4700 m max, 2200 m average Sea level equivalent: ~70 m Thickness: 3300 m max Sea level equivalent: 7 m

  46. Findings: • Greenlandshowing slight mass increase • Thickening in center • Thinning along coasts • Antarcticashowing mass loss • East Antarctic ice sheet thickening • West Antarctic ice sheet thinning • All results consistent with greenhouse effect predictions • Overall contribution to sea level of all ice sheets: +0.05 ± 0.03 mm/yr

  47. Mount Kilimanjaro – Africa’s tallest peak • The snow capping Mount is shrinking rapidly 1970 -> and could vanish altogether in 20 years, most likely due to global warming 2000 -> • The ice sheet that capped the Mount in 1912 was 85% smaller by 2007 • Since 2000 the existing ice sheet has shrunk by 26%

  48. Third Pole – The Himalayas • These are the largest areas covered by glaciers and permafrost outside the polar region, and the area now being called the ‘Third pole’ • The Himalayas have been warming three times faster the world average & their glaciers are shrinking more rapidly than anywhere else & could disappear by 2035. • The Glacier retreat in the Himalayas results from precipitation decrease in combination with temperature increase; and the retreat will increase up if climate warming and drying continues • This would affect Himalayan region and alter the lives of half a billion people in Asia and a quarter billion in China (IPCC 2007)

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