Results Chains

1. Results Chains

2. What is a Results Chain? A simple method (device) used to help clarify our assumptions about how conservation strategies contribute to reducing threats and achieving the conservation of specific targets

3. Results Chains – The Basics • Is a diagram of a series of “if…then” statements (“causal”) • Defines how we think a project strategy or activity is going to contribute to reducing a threat and conserving a target • Focuses on the achievement of results – not the execution of activities • Is composed of assumptions that can be tested

4. Simple example Strategy Target Result Result Result Direct Threat Objective Achieved In-Direct Threat Abated or Opportunity seized In-Direct Threat Abated or opportunity seized Impact of Actions Achieves/MaintainsViability

5. NW Yunnan, China – Fuel wood threat Threat Abatement Objective:To reduce by 75% the consumption of fuel wood collected from biologically sensitive forests in the project area in 10 years Strategic action Threat abate-ment result result result

6. Why? Why Results Chains? Document assumptions State our hypotheses Formulate measures

7. Situation Analysis? Results Chains? Situation Analyses: • Shows the situation today  and helps us to illuminate points of intervention and identify strategies Results Chains: • Starts with selected strategies  and helps to illuminate the path to the desired results

8. Results Chains and CAP? This methodology does not replace the other steps in CAP – but complements and enriches

9. How to construct a results chain? Step 1. Select a target and threat you want to work on Step 2. Select the objective that your team believes will successfully address that threat Step 3. Select a strategy [strategic action(s) or “line of action”] that is designed to achieve that objective

10. How to construct a results chain? Step 4. Identify the main factors (indirect threats or opportunities) that contribute to that direct threat that you assume must be changed to reduce the threat Factors might include: • market forces • social issues • people’s level of knowledge of appropriate practices • Politics • Policies • Enforcement issues • In the case of invasive species – vectors of dispersal

11. How to construct a results chain? How to construct a results chain? Step 5. Working from the left to the right…… Ask what the immediate results or outcomes of the strategic actions should be? What intermediate outcomes you expect these actions to produce? What additional outcomes are necessary to reduce your threat?

13. Good Results Chains are… • Results oriented:Boxes contain desired results (e.g., reduction of hunting), and not activities (e.g., conduct a study). • Connected in a “causal” manner:There are clear connections of “if…then” statements between each pair of boxes. • Demonstrate changes:Each box describes how you hope the relevant factor will change (e.g.,increase or decrease).

14. Good Results Chains are… • Relatively complete:There are sufficient boxes to construct logical connections but not so many that the chain becomes overly complex. • Simple:There is only one result per box.

15. What is NOT a Results Chain? It is not an implementation flow diagram… Results chains focus on the achievement of results not the execution of activities

16. Using results chains to elucidate Strategy Effectiveness Measures

17. NW Yunnan, China – Fuel wood threat NW Yunnan, China • Resources spent on Alternative • Energy Strategy • FY 2001 $50,000 • FY2002 $150,000 • FY2003 $350,000 • Total $550,000

18. NW Yunnan, China – Fuel wood threat Record of activities completed • proposals written • grants received • # presentations made • number of households contacted Training on Fireplace, Biogas, and Greenhouse Use in Village

19. NW Yunnan, China – Fuel wood threat • 1,491 Household Scale Biogas Units • 20 Biogas-Greenhouse Units • 97 Improved Fireplace/Cookstoves • 129 Solar Water Heating Units • 9 Energy demonstration project at schools Alternative energy installations completed by x date

20. NW Yunnan, China – Fuel wood threat • Threat abatement measured by measuring changes in volume of wood consumed in a sample of households • Household surveys to collect details on # people, fuel wood uses

21. NW Yunnan, China – Fuel wood threat Changes in forest cover calculated from changes in satellite-derived forest-cover maps

22. NW Yunnan, China – Fuel wood threat Changes in forest cover recorded from permanent photopoints along ridge top trails

23. NW Yunnan, China – Fuel wood threat

24. Break-out exercise instructions

25. What follows are additional slides one might use to illustrate this step

26. Mackinaw River

27. Example - The Mackinaw River Central Illinois Strategy - Increase the implementation of agricultural best management practices (BMP) to reduce fertilizer impacts to water quality, and improve the status of in-stream biota – particularly the freshwater mussels.

28. Mackinaw River

29. Mackinaw River

30. Condor Bioreserve Situation Analysis Who are the key stakeholders with vested interest in the project, what factors are driving critical threats, and what opportunities exist?

31. Condor Bioreserve What factors in our situation analysis warrant action?

32. Condor Bioreserve Results Chain