1 / 20

International Forum for Democratic Studies Presentation, June 28, 2006

International Forum for Democratic Studies Presentation, June 28, 2006. Assessing Slovakia’s 2006 Parliamentary Elections: Domestic and Regional Implications. Comments by Kevin Deegan-Krause In response to presentation by Grigorij Mesežnikov,

rusty
Download Presentation

International Forum for Democratic Studies Presentation, June 28, 2006

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. International Forum for Democratic StudiesPresentation, June 28, 2006 Assessing Slovakia’s 2006 Parliamentary Elections: Domestic and Regional Implications Comments by Kevin Deegan-Krause In response to presentation by Grigorij Mesežnikov, President of the Institute for Public Affairs (IVO), Bratislava:www.ivo.sk

  2. Kevin Deegan-Krause Comments` ` A few conceptual maps • What it’s all about • Uncertainty (of Coalition) • Stability (of Blocs) • Instability (of Parties)

  3. What’s it all about: Issue Dimensions Nationalism CommunismState Control Anti-Communism Free Market Integration

  4. Shift in issue dimensions between 1990 and 1992 from primarily anticommunist to primarily national Issue Dimensions Nationalism (Independent Slovakia) CommunismState Control Anti-Communism Free Market Integration (Czechoslovakia)

  5. Dominance of national issue dimension from 1992 to 1998+ Issue Dimensions Nationalism (Independent Slovakia, Strong Authority) CommunismState Control Anti-Communism Free Market Integration (EU, NATO, DFI, Democracy)

  6. Shift in issue dimensions between 1998 and 2006 from primarily national/democratic to primarily economic (at least at the election of party rhetoric and (to some degree voter choice. Issue Dimensions Nationalism (Independent Slovakia, Strong Authority) State Control (Safety Net) Free Market (Reforms) Integration (EU, NATO, DFI, Democracy)

  7. Approximate array of parliamentary parties on key issues, 2006 Issue Dimensions-Parties Nationalism (Independent Slovakia, Strong Authority) SNS HZDS State Control (Safety Net) Free Market (Reforms) Smer KDH SDKU SMK Integration (EU, NATO, DFI, Democracy)

  8. Plausible coalitions Uncertainty of Coalition Nationalism (Independent Slovakia, Strong Authority) SNS HZDS State Control (Safety Net) Free Market (Reforms) Smer KDH SDKU SMK Integration (EU, NATO, DFI, Democracy)

  9. Stability of Blocs Approximate blocs with positions on issues Nationalism (Independent Slovakia, Strong Authority) Slovak National “Left” State Control (Safety Net) Free Market (Reforms) “Right” Hungarian Integration (EU, NATO, DFI, Democracy)

  10. Bloc Seats in Parliament Bloc representation in parliament over time. Circle marks only significant inter-bloc shift

  11. Bloc Seats in Parliament Plausible coalitions

  12. Bloc Votes in Election Bloc voting over time. Circle marks only significant inter-bloc shift. Note that it is different than the shift in parliamentary seats. Instead of a shfit between right and left, the voting shows a shift from Slovak national to left with right showing unchanged percentages.

  13. Party (In)Stability Map of Slovak parties over time. Size of line proportional to seats in parliament. Black lines represent periods in government; grey lines represent periods in opposition. Hairlines represent periods out of parliament.

  14. Party (In)Stability by Bloc Map of Slovak parties over time. Size of line proportional to seats in parliament. Color families correspond to party blocs.

  15. Party (In)Stability by Leadership Type Smer Leader-dominance of parties based on 2004 Rohrschneider/Whitefield survey of academic experts. Smer and HZDS highly centralized. Arrows show change in parliamentary delgation size. Centralized parties showed greater volatility over time. SDKU Seats in Parliament, 2006 SMK SNS KDH HZDS KSS ANO Program and Organization Leader and Charisma

  16. On what basis is the new coalition really formed? From Instability of Parties Back to Uncertainty of Coalition Nationalism (Independent Slovakia, Strong Authority) SNS HZDS State Control (Safety Net) Free Market (Reforms) Smer KDH SDKU SMK Integration (EU, NATO, DFI, Democracy)

  17. From Instability of Parties to Uncertainty of Coalition If main issue divide is socio-economic, the most internally-coherent coalition is Smer-SNS-HZDS (the one which eventually formed), but socio-economic orientation is not the only explanation. Personalistic explanations seem just as compelling. SNS KDH Free Market (Reforms) State Control (Safety Net) Smer SDKU HZDS SMK

  18. From Instability of Parties to Uncertainty of Coalition Which of these men can get along best? Apparently those in the upper left corner.

  19. Stability of Blocs Ideology does act as restraint on personalistic coalition decisions, but the Smer-SNS-HZDS coalition indicates the wide choice offered by a multi-dimensional field of ideological competition. The key question for the next months and years will be the share of “left” voters who will tolerate coalition with extreme nationalists. Nationalism (Independent Slovakia, Strong Authority) Slovak National “Left” State Control (Safety Net) Free Market (Reforms) “Right” Hungarian Integration (EU, NATO, DFI, Democracy)

  20. Konec www.pozorblog.com

More Related