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DeWitt John Director of Environmental Studies Bowdoin College Attacking Wicked Problems like Climate Change . Today. DeWitt John: Policy Experience. Colorado: Director, Division of Mines Policy Director for the Governor Washington DC: Director of Economic Policy, Natl Governors Asso

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  1. DeWitt John Director of Environmental Studies Bowdoin College Attacking Wicked Problems like Climate Change Today

  2. DeWitt John: Policy Experience Colorado: Director, Division of Mines Policy Director for the Governor Washington DC: Director of Economic Policy, Natl Governors Asso Director, State Policy Program, Aspen Institute Director, Center for the Economy & Environment, Natl Academy of Public Administration

  3. environment.gov: Transforming Environmental Protection for the 21st Century A Brighter Future for Rural America?: Strategies for Communities and States Civic Environmentalism: Alternatives to Regulation in States and Communities Resolving the paradox of environmental protection Clean air and the politics of coal DeWitt John: Books

  4. Attacking Wicked Problems like Climate Change 3-28-07 DeWitt John Environmental Studies Program Bowdoin College Brunswick, Maine djohn@bowdoin.edu

  5. What is a “wicked” problem? How can political leaders, citizens, and you go about reducing the risks of “wicked” problems? Now-2010: the “policy window” in the US for addressing the “wicked” problem of climate change

  6. Cuyahoga River burning, Cleveland, Ohio, 1969

  7. Simple problems A few, easily identifiable sources Bad guys! Rich, unpopular culprits Big predictable risks Readily available technology to reduce risks

  8. How to solve a simple problem • Make the culprits at the sources install the technology to eliminate the risks • Regulation • Incentives

  9. Efficiency: elec 21%; res 62%; ind 73.5%; tn 20%

  10. Few sources Identifiable, rich, unpopular culprits Many sources – too many to count! Multiple, unknown, or poor culprits – or “we all are the problem”: need for widespread collective action Simple problems Wicked problems

  11. Big, predictable risks Available affordable technology Multiple risks, uncertain timing New info about the problem & “solutions” keeps appearing Risky, expensive technology. Technologies not yet fully developed. Too many technologies! (P&S) Unintended consequences Market failures (information, difference in perspectives about time) Simple problems Wicked problems

  12. How to solve a simple problem • Make the culprits at the sources install the technology to eliminate the risks • Regulation • Incentives

  13. How to get a handle on a wicked problem Many sources • Look first for “low-hanging fruit” – easy things that will pay off quickly • Set broad goals and plan for incremental changes to address other sources Culprits? • First identify culprits that you can influence or regulate easily and productively • Then, can you find businesses/investors that will profit from developing clean new technologies?

  14. How to get a handle on a wicked problem Unpredictable risks - Assess the longer-term risks and expect surprises as events unfold - Set some goals (e.g., 60-90% reduction in GHGs by 2050) - Develop scenarios – different ways to achieve your goals No ready technologies • Develop new technologies, learning by doing • Wicked problems open opportunities for creative engineers

  15. Technological lock-in In the early phases of technological advance, many paths are promising but too little is known about potential impacts to choose the best paths. Later on, when more is known, options are greatly restricted. D Sarewitz Ways of Knowing Novel Materials

  16. American Electric Power’s coal-fired power plant, Cheshire, Ohio

  17. Examples of Technological Lock-in Building coal-fired power plants 50 year life, high initial costs but cheap fuel Turn new plants into culprits – as the Call to Action tried to do. or When they must be rebuilt, the culprit may be your ally! They do face extra burdens; help them adapt. Buy them off, cheaply. Help AEP finance new, cleaner power plants.

  18. Are wicked problems moral issues? At the outset, we have an obligation to recognize “wicked” problems But culprits and risks abound; we need allies. Develop a vision of where you want to go; be humble: acknowledge uncertainties, learn as you go turn culprits into allies whenever you can.

  19. Policy to address “wicked” problems • Hedge your investments Multiple strategies – no “bickering” • Low-carbon technologies • Energy efficiency • Conservation and the “simple life” Use multiple tools • Regulations • Cap-and-trade • Performance standards • Public disclosure of emissions, carbon content, etc. State and local “laboratories of democracy”– not just the federal government

  20. Build a “learning system” to improve scientific, bureaucratic, and public understanding of the problem and possible remedies www.nanoriskframework.com 3. Expect surprises, take advantage of opportunities –scientific discoveries, technological breakthroughs, policy windows. 4. The perfect is the enemy of the good. Be un-relenting; don’t give up. This is your life.

  21. Politics for wicked problems “Humans gravitate to stories where the plot revolves around a single dramatic event rather than where the ending is driven by slow accumulation of change (Robert Lempert et al. “Shaping the Next 100 Years”, RAND, 2004)

  22. The past is consistent with many different futures; scenarios will open your mind and raise hopes. Scenarios can inject technical plausibility and narrative concreteness into the public debate – help people learn.

  23. 1. Define an acceptable condition – it’s your goal 2. Imagine different paths to get to the goal • Scientific • Technologies • Economic drivers • Governance • Culture and “morals” 3. Assess “risk-of-policy” – not “predict-then-act” 4. Be honest about your goal (20% reduction by 2020?) - It’s a only an informed guess about the future. • Use metrics to evaluate progress and educate about uncertainties – both risks and opportunities.

  24. Fragmentation of government in the US • Legislative-executive-judicial separation of powers • Multiple Congressional committees • Federal-state-local government

  25. 87,576 independent governments

  26. In a fragmented world: It’s hard to get agreement on anything new. It’s easier to stop action than to take action. This has traditionally been thought to be acceptable in the US – our system places a higher value on liberty than on government effectiveness.

  27. so . . . Policy windows must open to allow big changes • Dramatic crisis gets the public’s attention • A politician wants to get attention, perhaps to run for a higher office, is willing to take a risk by offering a solution to the crisis • A policy entrepreneur gives the politician a fresh idea about a policy that can respond to the crisis Everyone lines up to support the fresh idea to address the crisis

  28. Humphrey. Not elected in 1968 Nixon worried about ‘72 Muskie hoping to win in 72

  29. Richard Nixon, elected President in 1968 Ed Muskie had made his reputation as an advocate for the environment . . . and was running against Nixon in 1972. Nixon’s fresh idea: the federal government would preempt state regulation Result: National Environmental Policy Act 1969 EPA created 1970 Clean Air Act of 1970

  30. National leaders committed to action on climate change

  31. Businesses supporting a 60-90% cut in CO2 by 2050 • GE • Merrill Lynch • Duke Energy • Alcoa • Dupont • Caterpillar • Lehman Brothers • BPAmerica and others

  32. So . . . . . . . . . . . Climate Change Act of 2007. 08, 09 or 2010 ? ? ? What is the fresh idea? Will cap-and-trade still be “fresh” in 2010?

  33. Initial steps in 2007-08 GHG inventory and registry Ban new conventional coal-fired plants?? RD&D for renewables & carbon sequestration More state GHG plans Local/personal commitments to buy low-carbon electricity Court ok for California’s low-carbon car Higher CAFE standards – fuel efficiency??

  34. Action in 2009-2010?? An aggressive national goal = 60% by 2020 Federal cap-and-trade legislation New federal-state-business partnership for developing low-carbon technologies Then . . . New federal-state partnership to build infrastructure for - for low-carbon cities - for adapting to climate change

  35. Imagine a Stable Climate Understand the Planetary Problem (to the extent that you can) List and analyze the policy options Take a stand – a technology, institution, approach Experiment, fail, learn, succeed Imagine Yourself Solving this Problem

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