Presentation Transcript

1. 2011 So. Cal. Visitor Industry ConferenceOutlook on U.S. Travel and TourismLauren Schlau

2. Acknowledgement to Suzanne D. Cook, Ph.D. Marketing Outlook Forum General Manager and Senior Advisor, U.S. Travel Association
3. Looking back…2001 – 2011… A Decade for the Record books!
4. and of many other Rs…….…… Resignation Resilience Renewal Resourcefulness Reevaluation (priorities) Roller-coaster ride RECOVERY … but how strong and for how long?
5. Looking ahead – A confusing economic and consumer environment!
6. Turning the economic corner…Really? When? Weak housing market Lack of recovery in labor markets Real median HH incomes down 7% from 2000 Shrinking middle-class Inflationary pressures still high in travel Ongoing debt crisis and political stalemates Higher taxes? Threat of a double-dip recession Americans’ spending plans still on hold
7. U.S. Economic Factors are inconsistent and theconsumer is reluctant to spend While short term indicators do not indicate stall speed Companies are in strong position And Housing is recovering in parts of the country With highly expansionary Monetary policy Spurring New growth sectors… The U.S. consumer is complex, uncertain and lacking confidence.  Most likely scenario in 2012 = growth slowdown
8. Consumer Confidence…Remains very depressed 90 considered “healthy” 39.8 25.3 1985 = 100 Source: The Conference Board
9. Traveler Sentiment IndexTMDown again… Interest in travel Time for travel Money available for travel Affordability of travel Quality of service Safety of travel in U.S. March 2007 = 100 Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, October 2011
10. Affordability of Travel Index… Again heading in the right direction March 2007 = 100; the indices run counter to costs Gas prices rise Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM
11. But…travel prices continue to outpace overall inflation
12. Led by still-high gas prices and rising air fares Percentage change through September 2011 YTD TPI = +6.9% YTD CPI = +3.1% excludes various fees Source: U.S. Travel Association Travel Price Index
13. Travel Spending : Will exceed $800 billion for first time ever in 2011 Billions of Dollars (in nominal terms) Source: U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics
14. Good News: Travel spending will continue to rise at about 5% over next two years Billions of Dollars Source: U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics
15. Recovery began in 2010 and continued in 2011… but is growth softening thru 2011? % Chg. Over prior year Source: U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics
16. Domestic Visitors… 2011 Volume to slightly exceed 2007 record. Slow but positive 1.5% - 2.5% growth in next 1-2 years. Millions of person-trips Forecasts as of October 2011 Source: U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics
17. Leisure travel: intentions soft…but opportunity to entice 45 million “not sures” Plan to take a leisure trip between November 2011 and April 2012 Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnershiptravelhorizons™
18. Moderate gains in domestic leisure travel Forecasts Source: U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics
19. Domestic Leisure VisitorsWill continue to set new records Millions of Person-trips * Forecast as of October 2011 Source: U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics
20. Total International Inbound Visitor VolumeWill peak again this year after record in 2010 Millions of Visitors – includes all overseas, Canada and Mexico Forecast as of October 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics
21. Overseas Visitors - The Lost Decade: We are now where were in 2000 as US lost market share Millions of Visitors Forecast as of October 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics
22. International and Overseas arrivals - slowing growth expected *Forecasts as of October 2011 Source: U.S. Travel Association; Tourism Economics
23. Percentage Change in International Arrivals Through July 20118 of 10 top countries showing increases Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
24. Attraction Trends – Domain of US and Int’l leisure travelers, seeing a recovery (versus public parks) Attraction attendance +1.2% and average rates +3% in 2011 Forecast for 2012 = +0.5% Larger attractions that lost attendance over past few years experienced greater rebound – driven by families with children Growth in “grandtrippers” Offering increased value Source: Herschend Family Entertainment
25. Business Travel.…Not what it used to be
26. Incidence of Business Travel Down 15 Points Over Past 5 Years, but Stabilizing Percent taking business trip in past year Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM October 2011
27. Business travel intentions…Stability reigns Plan to take a business trip in next six months Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM
28. US business travel improves…But still well below 1998 record high In millions * Forecast as of May 11, 2011 Source: U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics
29. Business travel… Increasingly the province of the young Plan to take a business trip between November 2011 and April 2012 Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, October 2011
30. 2 1 Four 2010 Census Findings 3 Aging Population 4 Growing Diversity: ethnicity, lifestyle Changing Households: fewer kids, more intergenerational, more singles Shrinking Wallets
31. There is light at the end of the tunnel… but will it be as bright as we’d like in the next 2 years? Thank You!