More on Social Change Two Theorists with some interesting ideas Daniel Chirot – professor at University of Washington –

1. More on Social Change Two Theorists with some interesting ideas Daniel Chirot – professor at University of Washington – How Societies Change Alvin Toffler – “futurist” the Great Wave; Future Shock

2. Chirot Culture “The store of knowledge any society possesses” Cultural “memories”

3. Causes of change: • Response to changing environment • Example: shift from hunting/fishing to agriculture because population got too large to be sustained by existing resources • Note: scarce resources

4. Another example of environmental influences was • Failure to change – subject to catastrophes – drought, invasion, flood • Civilizations had to deal with continuing rebuilding so could not grow • W. Europe not subject to these disasters, so was able to thrive • (Think about effect of disasters on resources….)

5. Technological component to societal change Invention of deep plow Efficient use of moist heavy soil Contributed to 400-year expansion of Europe Railroad Machinery (Industrial Revolution) Automobiles Petrochemicals – airplanes, etc.

6. Environmental influences brought about the invention of the STATE – about 3000 years ago • “the single most critical innovation in human organization” • People in greater concentrations of population had to develop ways to govern and be governed • AND to cope with SCARCE RESOURCES

7. State – invented in concentrated population areas – agriculture State = 1. stable government 2. Social diversification Elaborate bonds of kinship and mutual dependence (s-f)

8. We are still built to be hunter-gatherers Many of our deepest beliefs and cultural attributes still come from these venerable civilizations, even though most of the world no longer really according to such arrangements (fight/flight mechanisms, for ex.)

9. First specialists were SHAMANS – natural healers, understood supernatural forces (chiropractors?!?)

10. 2nd oldest specialists were war leaders Before state, were impermanent After state, became permanent 1st rulers of states were priest-warrior kings

11. Societies became stratified – 3 ways Prestige - knowledge Wealth Class position based on birth

12. Culture of elite – priests, warriors, nobles, officials, kings (Who is today’s elite = technological knowledge)

13. Problems of administration – how do elite control the masses? How to get things done? • 2 most important issues: • Get resources/revenue for state • Wage war (to get resources/revenue)

14. “Technology of Administration” needed to be developed – social, not mechanical skill King in capital needed to control people in outlying areas – how to get people to give up their revenue to the king

15. For large empires to work, there had to be • Sufficiently high population densities (from improvements in agriculture, technology • Bureaucrats – good records and systems • Adequate transportation • Effective weapons

16. Peasants – bound by tradition, incapable of changing? Why some changes resisted, some welcomed? “ethic of survival” – people were “close to the margin” – could not afford to try something new (crop rotation)

17. Which sectors of society change first? Peasants or elite? Diffusion of innovation From “early adopters” to “resistors”

18. Transition to agricultural states took place in unusually crowded places from which it was difficult to escape problems – needed to adapt, more exchange of ideas

19. General rule of social change – the longer there has been social stability, the more difficult to carry out reform Established groups – economic social status, political – consolidate positions, learn to defend Establishment more set in its ways Only catastrophe weakens established interest groups to reduce resistance

20. Most innovative were merchant cities – trade and commerce – Competition and trade led to many more social and political mutations People on coasts vs. those in interior Cultural change as “slow drift toward inefficiency”

21. Alvin Toffler - The Third Wave (1980) • Toffler’s assumption • Change is not chaotic or random but forms a sharp, clearly discernible pattern • Changes are cumulative, adding up to a giant transformation • Change comes in waves – history is a succession of “rolling waves of change”

22. First wave – rise of agriculture – about 8000 BC – Before this were hunter-gatherers, living in small, often migratory groups, feeding by foraging, hunting, fishing, herding – “primitive” peoples No societal structure; no “kinship” recognized; lived “hand to mouth”

23. 1st wave as process of civilization • Land as basis of economy, life, culture, family structure, politics • Life organized around village • Simple division of labor • Few castes and classes • Power rigidly authoritarian • Birth determined position in life • Each town self-sufficient, decentralized

24. First wave, agricultural revolution Slow changes Life not substantially different in 1500 AD than it was in 1000 AD Agricultural revolution almost exhausted by end of 17th century When industrial revolution began in England (1650-1750)

25. Industrial Revolution – second wave Touched every aspect of human life Tractors, typewriters, refrigerators Wristtwatch, ballot box Note conflict between 1st wave and 2nd wave in settlement of US: first settlements agricultural, then farms pushed further west….

26. Tension between 1st wave and 2nd wave reached peak in 1861 Civil War – “would the rich new continent be ruled by farmers or industrializers”? Today only remnants of 1st wave are in Africa and S. America ?

27. Industrial Revolution “ violently” split lives – ripped apart underlying unity of society, creating “economic tension, social conflict, and psychological malaise” Split production and consumption (from family to large impersonal company) Sector A (production for self ) huge in Wave 1; Sector B (production for others) small

28. Industrialism broke the union of production and consumption, and split the producer from the consumer First – marketplace as center of life; Then, economy becomes “marketized”

29. Today, concern with money, gods, things, not a reflection of capitalism, but uf industrialism Dual personality of producer and consumer – producer: defer gratification, be disciplined, work hard, be a team player, be obedient Consumer: seek instant gratification, pursue individual pleasure

30. 3rd Wave – starting mid 20th century – Service Economy, Don’t make anything –sell things and provide services Also highly dependent on computers - hardware and software Examples of major companies in US Microsoft Fed Ex McDonald’s

31. 2nd industrial wave still here (we still need things) But its effect on economy is diminishing # jobs in industrial sector diminishing – # jobs in service sector increasing Quad Cities – mid 1980s – lost ag industry – what replaced it?

32. Elements of First/Second/Third Waves Energy sources: 1st – “living batteries” men and animals 2nd – irreplaceable fossil fuels 3rd- “intellectual capital”

33. Technology 1st – “necessary inventions” – winch, wedge, catapult, lever, hoise 2nd – electromechanical 3rd – computers Production 1st – handcraft methods of production 2nd – “mass production” 3rd – production for “niches”

34. Distribution 1st – by human/animal 2nd – by train, highways, complex mass distribution methods 3rd – by email, fax

35. Families 1st – large, multi-generational, immobile 2nd – nuclear, smaller, more mobile, more fragmented 3rd – more diverse demographically …

36. Education 1st – home school, one room school, less needed or sought (needed on farm) School year is vestige of 1st wave 2nd – mass, overt curriculum to create workers; children started in school younger and stayed longer 3rd – individualized, distributed, online, for special training needs

37. Business 1st – individuals, no real business format 2nd – huge companies, conglomerates, “immortal beings” 3rd – fast-changing; more flexible; still trend toward consolidation

38. Communication 1st – face to face, writing, limited, reserved for rich and powerful 2nd – massive amounts of information to masses; post office; internal and external; telephone and telegraph; identical messages to masses “facts” 3rd – “paperless society”??? More personal, individual, email

39. Work and Home /Men and Women • 1st – at home in fields, every one together – work and home together • 2nd – work in factory, divided from home; great degree of specialization; care of children and home divorced from “real work”; hard work “not for women” • 3rd – people now working from home; type of work that both men and women can perform

40. Second Wave Societies • Standardizaton • Specialization • Synchronization • Concentration • Maximization • Centralization

41. Third Wave Societies • Personalized • Diversification • Asynchronized • Dispersed • Minimized • Decentralized

42. So where are we? The first wave is dying (death of the family farm) except in 3rd world countries The second wave has passed its prime and is on the decline (decline of unions and of steel and auto companies and of conglomerates) The third wave is in its prime (service economy booming; computers ubiquitous; personalization key)

43. So what is the fourth wave… is it here already? Genetics? “Virtual” everything? Micro everything? What will be effect on work, family, communications, education, production, distribution….?

44. Whatever it is, it is right around the corner 1st wave 8000 BC to 1650 AD (almost 10000 years) 2nd wave 1650 to 1950 (300 yrs) 3rd wave 1950 to present 2000 (50 years) 4th wave ??? Starting now?