Advanced modelling tools for integrated assessment of water and agricultural policies

2. Advanced modelling tools for integrated assessment ofwater and agricultural policies María Blanco Fonseca Agricultural Economics Department Polytechnic University of Madrid

3. Summary  Summary • Water and agriculture • Integration of agricultural and water policies • New modeling challenges • Modeling approaches • SERCA • SEAMLESS • Concluding remarks  Water and agriculture  CAP and WFD  New modeling challenges  Modeling approaches  SERCA  SEAMLESS  Conclusions

4. Water and agriculture  Summary • Water is a strategic resource and a major constraint for agricultural production • Irrigation is a key element of agricultural development (irrigated lands account for a large share of farming production) • Growing water scarcity has become a major ecological, economic and social problem • New water and agricultural policies aim to contribute to the sustainability of agricultural systems  Water and agriculture  CAP and WFD  New modeling challenges  Modeling approaches  SERCA  SEAMLESS  Conclusions

5. Integration of agricultural and water policies  Summary • Trends in EU water policies: • WFD establishes the basic principles for a sustainable water policy in the European Union • Key role of economic instruments • Member States shall take account of the principle of recovery of the costs of water services • Member States shall ensure by 2010 that water-pricing policies provide adequate incentives for users to use water resources efficiently • New water policies focus on demand management and aim to increase efficiency of water use in agriculture  Water and agriculture  CAP and WFD  New modeling challenges  Modeling approaches  SERCA  SEAMLESS  Conclusions

6. Integration of agricultural and water policies  Summary • Trends in EU Agricultural Policies: • The 2003 CAP reform represents a significant change in EU farm support • "decoupling" will make EU farmers more competitive and market oriented • "compliance" will ensure the respect of environmental conditions • Increasing the versatile nature of the new CAP • policy guidelines at EU level • implementation at national/regional level (variety of implementation tools)  Water and agriculture  CAP and WFD  New modeling challenges  Modeling approaches  SERCA  SEAMLESS  Conclusions

7. New modeling challenges  Summary • Increasing interest for developing analytical tools at regional/local level • Ability to simulate potential changes in cropland allocation and technology • Aptitude to assess economic, social and environmental issues • Capability to work with the available databases in order to allow for regional comparison and updating • Flexibility to simulate the rising variety of policy instruments (water pricing, decoupling, compliance, agri-environmental measures)  Water and agriculture  CAP and WFD  New modeling challenges  Modeling approaches  SERCA  SEAMLESS  Conclusions

8. Modeling approaches (SERCA)  Summary • SERCA: one of the recent efforts to develop modeling tools for integrated assessment of water and agricultural policies • Optimization approach satisfying the following criteria: • Simulate farmers' response to changing policy scenarios • Flexible application to a large number of study zones • Integrated assessment of environmental, economic and social impacts of different policy options at the regional/local level • Capability to work with the limited datasets available  Water and agriculture  CAP and WFD  New modeling challenges  Modeling approaches  SERCA  SEAMLESS  Conclusions

9. Modeling approaches (SERCA)  Summary • Impact of water prices on cropland allocation  Water and agriculture Guadiana case study  CAP and WFD  New modeling challenges  Modeling approaches  SERCA  SEAMLESS  Conclusions

10. Modeling approaches (SERCA)  Summary • Water demand in two CAP scenarios  Water and agriculture  CAP and WFD  New modeling challenges  Modeling approaches  SERCA  SEAMLESS  Conclusions

11. Modeling approaches (SEAMLESS)  Summary • SEAMLESS: EU Integrated Project • Objective: develop and integrated modeling framework to assess alternative agricultural and environmental policy options, allowing • Analysis at the full range of scales (farm to global) • Analysis of the environmental, economic and social contributions of a multidimensional agriculture towards sustainable rural development • Analysis of a broad range of issues  Water and agriculture  CAP and WFD  New modeling challenges  Modeling approaches  SERCA  SEAMLESS  Conclusions

12. Modeling approaches (SEAMLESS)  Summary • Specific objectives: • To develop a multi-perspective set of economic, social and environmental indicators of the sustainability of farming systems • To provide quantitative and qualitative tools and databases for integrated evaluation of agricultural systems at multiple scales • To validate and demonstrate the applicability and reliability of SEAMLESS in selected test cases • To offer a generic and flexible structure to end users, open for further developments  Water and agriculture  CAP and WFD  New modeling challenges  Modeling approaches  SERCA  SEAMLESS  Conclusions

13. Global Continental & National Regional Farm Field Modeling approaches (SEAMLESS)  Summary • Integrated modeling framework  Water and agriculture Global model  CAP and WFD Market models  New modeling challenges Regional models Landscape models  Modeling approaches  SERCA Farm models  SEAMLESS Agricultural production models at field level  Conclusions

14. Concluding remarks  Summary • Ex-ante assessment of new policies is vital for enhancing their effectiveness and efficiency • Recent institutional and policy changes pose important challenges on modelling • Need to develop models able to work at different scales and to consider the different aspects (biophysical, economic, social and institutional) of the farming systems under study.  Water and agriculture  CAP and WFD  New modeling challenges  Modeling approaches  SERCA  SEAMLESS  Conclusions

15. Thank you very much for your attention

17. Modeling approaches (SERCA)  Summary • Impact of water price policies in cropland allocation  Water and agriculture Guadiana case study  CAP and WFD  New modeling challenges  Modeling approaches  SERCA  SEAMLESS  Conclusions

18. Modeling approaches (SERCA)  Summary • Impact of water price policies in cropland allocation  Water and agriculture Guadalquivir case study  CAP and WFD  New modeling challenges  Modeling approaches  SERCA  SEAMLESS  Conclusions

19. Modeling approaches (SERCA)  Summary • Irrigation technology  Water and agriculture  CAP and WFD  New modeling challenges  Modeling approaches  SERCA  SEAMLESS  Conclusions

20. Modeling approaches (SERCA)  Summary • Water demand  Water and agriculture  CAP and WFD  New modeling challenges  Modeling approaches  SERCA  SEAMLESS  Conclusions

21. Modeling approaches (SERCA)  Summary • The model allows us as well to simulate agricultural policy changes. • The main policy options simulated are: • Baseline Scenario : 1999 CAP • Partial Decoupling: Single Payment Scheme (75% payments decoupled from production) • Full Decoupling: Single Payment Scheme (100% payments decoupled from production)  Water and agriculture  CAP and WFD  New modeling challenges  Modeling approaches  SERCA  SEAMLESS  Conclusions

22. Modeling approaches (SERCA)  Summary • Water demand (Guadiana)  Water and agriculture  CAP and WFD  New modeling challenges  Modeling approaches  SERCA  SEAMLESS  Conclusions

23. Modeling approaches (SERCA)  Summary • Farm income (Guadiana)  Water and agriculture  CAP and WFD  New modeling challenges  Modeling approaches  SERCA  SEAMLESS  Conclusions

24. Modeling approaches (SEAMLESS)  Summary • Indicators for each analysis level  Water and agriculture  CAP and WFD  New modeling challenges  Modeling approaches  SERCA  SEAMLESS  Conclusions