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The Economic Outlook

Insights on economic prospects, highlighting growth factors (housing, consumer spending, investment) & challenges (fiscal drag, global risks). Emphasis on Fed stimulus, job creation, and GDP projections.

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The Economic Outlook

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  1. The Economic Outlook James Marple, Senior Economist TD Economics March 20, 2013

  2. This time is different

  3. What’s in store for the economy? • Lots of upside potential: • Housing • Consumer spending • Investment & job creation • Weighing on growth: • Fiscal drag – tax hikes, sequestration… • Global prospects & risks

  4. Global slowdown a near-term headwind

  5. U.S. exporting more to the Americas, less to Europe

  6. Faster economic growth is on the horizon…

  7. …In Pennsylvania too

  8. Private “deleveraging” giving way to public

  9. Federal deficits are getting smaller…

  10. …At least for now…

  11. Housing headwind becoming a tailwind

  12. Construction to catch up to household growth

  13. Market is clearing and house prices are growing

  14. Auto sales still have room to grow

  15. Credit conditions are improving

  16. Uncertainty keeping firms on sidelines

  17. Layoffs down, but need more hiring

  18. Fed will continue to prime the pumps

  19. America still has a jobs deficit

  20. Employment growth is key to reducing vacancies

  21. Low interest rates likely here for a while

  22. The bottom line • Housing improvement a fillip to economic growth • Tax hikes & spending cuts are a drag • Global growth improving, but risks remain • Fed to remain stimulative • Real GDP growth of ~2.0% in 2013, ~3.0% in 2014

  23. TD Economics www.td.com/economics This reportis provided by TD Economicsfor customers of TD Bank Group. It is for information purposes only and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. The report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

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