Are We Homo Hypocritus?

1. Are We Homo Hypocritus? Robin Hanson, GMU, Consensus Point, Overcoming Bias

2. Disinterest In Econ Alternatives MINE: • Merge life, health insurance • Double or nothing lawsuit • Juries elect politicians • Woulda-banned stores • Regressions of student evals • District-specific fed tax rates • Bounty-enforced public law • Negative tort liability • Charity angels: poor, ideas • Random beeps, tokens to equalize conversation time OTHERS: • Sell organs, sex, babies • Bonds to commit – Stickk • Congestion road pricing • Tax height, leisure time • Tradable vote, citizenship • Approval voting • Prizes to promote research • Sell shares in lawsuits • Private law with antitrust • Internal affairs not report to police chief More hostility than mere ignorance or random biases explains?

3. $1 if A p(A) $1 Prediction Markets Advantages: • Speculative markets are as accurate or more than alts • Incentives to self-select, be careful, correct biases • Often updated, consistent, hard to manipulate • Can estimate p(A), p(A&B) E[x], p(A|B), E[x|B], etc. Applications: • Firm sales, project done, • Account of info cost, value • Stock if fire CEO, vs not • Job candidate pubs if hire • Student GPA if accept • Science info prizes • Libya democracy if attack • National welfare if policy

4. Forecasting Puzzles • Superiors prefer overconfident software managers • Most firm forecasting orgs weak, starved • Most firms accept PM accuracy claim, yet uninterested • Big successes predicting deadline failures not followed up • DARPA Mideast geopolitics PM project killed ‘03 Firm managers mostly develop political coalitions? Prefer to keep private control of info sources? Govt agents avoid clear evidence of what knew when?

5. We Can’t Agree To Disagree • Aumann in 1976: • Any information • Of possible worlds • Common knowledge • Of exact E1[x], E2[x] • Would say next • For Bayesians • With common priors • Seek truth, not lie Since generalized to: • Impossible worlds • Common belief • A f(•, •), or who max • Last sign of E1[x - E2[x]] • At core, or wannabe • Symmetric prior origins Bees do a decent job of this, robots can too. Are humans unaware of non-truth belief priorities?

6. help? A B q p G Medical Puzzles • 18% of US GDP, yet RAND exper., regional variations show little health/med correlation • More med/safety regulation than bigger health levers: air, diet, exercise, religion, marriage, smoking, etc. • Especially regulate the low status • Low interest in private med quality signs, vs. public • Huge status effect; steady time gains cause unknown • Big placebo effects for pain, depression • More med charity than bigger harms (e.g. divorce) • Prefer family, firm, nation expense sharing Evolved habit of med spend to show allies that care? Med care shows long term loyalty, when most fear betrayal.

7. Signaling Explain Puzzles? • Med spending shows loyalty to, confidence in, allies • Graduating school shows IQ, conscientiousness, wealth • Political talk shows loyalties, IQ, connections, personality • Sports show fitness, social skills, personality • Personal gifts show care and personal attention • Fashion awareness shows social connectedness, attention • Drinking lots shows strength of body, mind • Music tastes show class, cohort, discrimination abilities • Skipping the usual signals can show you are exceptional But if these signal those, why are we so unaware of it all?

8. A Catechism Food isn’t for Nutrition Clothes aren’t for Comfort Bedrooms aren’t for Sleep Marriage isn’t for Romance Talk isn’t to Gain Info Laughter isn’t about Jokes Charity isn’t about Helping Sports aren’t for Exercise Church isn’t about God Art isn’t about Insight Medicine isn’t for Health Consulting isn’t for Advice Investing isn’t for Returns School isn’t for Learning Research isn’t for Progress Politics isn’t about Policy “X is not about Y” means “Y is not the main function of X.”

9. Ancient Foragers • War was rare & mild, never over territory. • Polygamy for 35/50% of men/women, premarital & extramarital sex common & ok for men. • Band moved often, few possessions, live very close. • Common for individuals to change bands & mates. • Only ever see <200 people in lifetime. • Coordinate to shun, exile, or kill rule violators. “Before twelve thousand years ago, humans basically were egalitarian. They lived in what might be called societies of equals, with minimal political centralization and no social classes. Everyone participated in group decisions, and outside the family there were no dominators.” (Boehm, Hierarchy in the Forest)

10. More Recently … Farming Industry • Settled – stay, own land, collect tools, inequality! • Tired – jobs more, boring • War – close, stuff to take • Marriage – so when take fem in war, she stays • Trade – rules to treat fair • Religion – to scare into follow rules, fight war • Cities – to specialize • Regimentation – jobs require more coordination • School – to accept job ranking, regimentation • Wealth – more per capita • Indulged – return to forager travel, art, mating, democracy, atheism

11. Social Brain Puzzle • Big brains: predator-prey, pair-bonds, larger-group primates, higher-density hominids • Big brain primates: bigger groups, more time socializing, more Machiavellian coalition politics & status • Humans: biggest primate groups & brains • Language: saves socializing time, enables enforce rules • Rules are: don’t do X, punish any do X & who not punish, but only apply to acts can see clearly, reliably tell others • Forager no-nos: dominate, order, force, brag, threaten, hog food, sub-band coalitions • The Puzzle: fairly enforced rules cut Machiavellian coalition politics gains – why pay for big brains anymore?

12. Big Brains Under Rules Gains Tools • Unruled – politics re acts not covered by rules. • Skirt – keep actions near but not over rule edges. • Hide – do we who see report act to others? • Frame – lawyer-like argue if acts violate rules. • Conspire – on how to publicly interpret acts. • Eyes – coordinate via, hard to testify about • Status Moves – subtle body, voice to dom/submit • Signaling – Brag, ally under other guises • Joke, Flirt – No rules to friendly indirect play talk • Sorcery – Accuse of without visible evidence

13. Summary • Surprisingly reluctance to consider econ alternatives • Including in prediction markets • If beliefs to estimate truth, would not knowingly disagree • Medicine seems not about health - is about showing care? • Many behaviors explainable as signals, other functions • But if so, why don’t we know?! • Forager language enabled rules, which cut brain gains • Yet humans have the biggest brains of all? What for? • Homo hypocritus pretends to follow rules, slyly evades • Gains: unruled, skirt, hide, frame conspire • Tools: eyes, status moves, signaling, joke/flirt, sorcery