Impacts of Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Adaptation Capacity in the Limpopo Basin: The Case of Eastern Botswana

1. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION CAPACITY IN THE LIMPOPO BASIN OF SEMI-ARID LAND SOUTHERN AFRICA: THE CASE OF EASTERN BOTSWANA. AF 42

2. LIMPOPO BASIN • One of the 5 of the 10 largest surface water bodies in sub-Saharan Africa • Found in Southern Africa • Extends over 3720000 km² • Most of it is in semi-arid lands of Botswana, Zimbabwe, and South Africa • Subjected to frequent climate extremes common in Southern Africa such as the 1991/2 droughts linked to ENSO and the 1999/2000 floods due to tropical cyclones. AF 42

3. Location: Botswana AF 42

4. PROJECT LOCATION AF 42

5. PROJECT DESCRIPTION • GENERAL OBJECTIVES • Establish past and present responses to climate variability and extreme events in the food and water sector. Food = agriculture (livestock and arable), wildlife, and forest products • To establish past and present status and factors influencing food production, water supply and demand in the Limpopo basin • Determine effects of climate change on water and food using a range of IPCC SRES based climate and national socio-economic scenarios AF 42

6. Description Continued • Establish the level of vulnerability of Limpopo basin to climate change on the food and water sector • Determine the implications of impacts of climate change on indigenous adaptation capacity and options for mitigation against adverse impacts • Identify cost-effective and locally feasible adaptation options for the basin. • Contribute to increasing awareness to climate change issues in Southern Africa at different levels AF 42

7. EXPECTED OUTPUT • Enhanced capacity to conduct climate change assessment and work in multi-disciplinary teams. • A case study to support IPCC assessment on the linkages between past and current socio-economic status, resource availability, and future climatic changes impacts, vulnerability and adaptation capacity in an African environment. • Place specific climate change assessment results useful for policy makers and NGOs to support national communication, set adaptation strategies and international negotiations. AF 42

8. Output continued • Enhance capacity among policy makers and the private sector to consider measures to reduce vulnerability to climate change as avenues to accelerate long-term national development goals. • An adaptation of complex linkages influencing food and water in the Limpopo basin • Enhance insights on management of the basin which will be useful to other countries sharing the catchment • Create data bases and locally relevant models that will be valuable for different sectors including improved estimates of emissions over Botswana. AF 42

9. TECHNICAL APPROACH : OVERVIEW Questions underlying the technical approach • What will be the impact of climate change on food and water in the basin? • How vulnerable is food production/security and water supply to climate change? • What is the adaptation capacity/options in the Limpopo basin? AF 42

10. How do we address these questions • Establish past (20yrs) and current status by assessing trends and establishing relationships with influential factors e.g water supply and temperature. • Model future trends (20yrs) under climate change – using IPCC scenarios • Use findings in 1 and 2 above to determine vulnerability - discuss results with communities and other stakeholders AF 42

11. Work out adaptation strategies and implementation schemes at different levels - all stakeholders • Communicate results widely in the basin at national, regional and international levels AF 42

12. Some ideas from the Trieste workshop • Downscaling GCMs data, possibly using statistical methods • Use SimCLIM models • Use GIS and remote sensing images to assess vulnerability • Use of multi-criteria analysis to assess adaptation strategies AF 42

13. AF 42