Reporting on impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change

1. Reporting on impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change Introductory presentation by the UNFCCC secretariat Olga Pilifosova Workshop on the preparation of fourth national communications from Annex I Parties, Dublin 30 September – 1 October 2004

2. Content • Introduction: evolution of the issue • UNFCCC reporting requirements • What has been reported: Findings and problems • Good practices • Useful references and resources for 4th NC • Starting points for discussion

3. Introduction: evolution of the V&A issue since the Second National Communication • Interest in vulnerability and adaptation to climate change has grown considerably in both developing and developed countries • IPCC TAR, 2002 reaffirmed: necessary strategy at all global, national, regional scale MUST include BOTH adaptation and mitigation. Chapter 18 devoted entirely to adaptation in the context of sustainable development and equity. • New approaches to the issue of vulnerability and adaptation have emerged: from impacts to vulnerability • In the UNFCCC process many important decisions have been adopted: Marrakech Accords, New Delhi Declaration, new funds, decision 5/CP.7 • SBSTA initiated exchanging information among Parties and practitioners on practical experiences, opportunities and solutions on adaptation • International cooperation increased and broadened in scope

4. UNFCCC reporting requirements for V&A Article 4.1(b) and (e): All Parties shall: • Formulate, implement …programmes containing measures to facilitate adaptation to climate change • Cooperate in preparing for adaptation…  V&A REPORTING includes 3 elements: ASSESSMENTS – ACTION – [COOPERATION]

5. What was reported in the 3rd NCs: V&A ASSESSMENTS • Institutional arrangements and initiatives for V&A research • Methods: • GCM, downscaling techniques, RCMs to build CC scenarios • Sectoral impact models • Methods for vulnerability and integrated impact analysis • Risk assessment techniques • Tools for evaluating adaptation strategies and measures • Results: • Observed climate change, variations and extremes • Plausible future changes in (mean) climate characteristics • Projected impacts on ecosystems and sectors • Ranking and mapping of vulnerabilities and climate change risks • Possible adaptation measures by sector, priorities for adaptation • Socio-economic aspects of the impacts of climate change • Limitations and uncertainties of the studies. Improvements

6. What has been reported in the 3rd NCs:Action • Steps taken in the national climate change process, including the allocation of additional funding to develop a policy framework for adaptation. • Deployment of extensive national research programmes that involve a broad range of stakeholders • Providing policy advice to decision-makers at all levels (national, province, state, sector) and rising public awareness about CC impacts • Steps taken to reflect CC risks in infrastructure design, long-term sectoral planning processes, regulations and legislations

7. What was reported in the 3rd NCs: [cooperation] • Information on the level of support has been provided under “ Financial resources and transfer of technology” (table 5) • Increased share of support directed to projects addressing adaptation issues • Information on the substance/nature of the bilateral and multilateral cooperation on V&A is limited

8. Findings and problems.Progress since NC2 • All Parties reported on V&A • Reporting became more comprehensive and structured • On I&V&A assessment and research considerable progress has been reported in the following main areas: • Improved climate change scenarios • Better understanding of CC impacts, and the complex nature of vulnerability • Development and application of a new type of assessment using a risk-based and vulnerability approach, and involving a broad range of stakeholders • Better understanding of possible adaptation responses: e.g. adjustments to existing policies vs listing sectoral adaptation options • More information is provided on adaptation actions, measures and initial policies

9. Problems • Use of terms is not always consistent with the IPCC terminology, e.g. impacts vs vulnerability & sensitivity, adaptation options, measures, policies • Information on methodologies used for V&A assessment, and particularly for evaluation of adaptation options, is not always provided • Information on expected impacts, vulnerability and adaptation assessment is sometimes too wordy, unfocused and repetitive (e.g. from NC2) • In many cases it is not clear what are new/innovative/improved in the approaches and results since the previous reporting • Information on linkages between/application of assessments/research and overall national CC strategies and adaptation actions, measures and policies is limited

10. Good practices: some examples • Clearly structured and consistent description of the assessment: impacts-vulnerability-adaptation. Focus on key vulnerabilities and impacts, mapping. (Austria, Italy) • Clear presentation of methods and results (mapping) of impact analysis based on regional modeling, (Slovakia, Sweden) • Concise and clear summary (table) of information on key expected impacts of climate change. Attention to uncertainties of results (US) • Visual and clear presentation of organization of the V&A studies, and their linkage with actions at different levels (UKCIP- UK). • Reporting on integrated assessment and stakeholder participation (Australia, Canada, UK, US) • Reporting on integration/consideration of climate change adaptation into existing planning, legislation, policies (Australia, Belgium,France, Japan, New Zealand, EU, Netherlands, USA, etc.)

11. Useful references and resources for NC4 • Definitions, IPCC TAR: sensitivity, impacts, vulnerability, adaptation measures and adaptation policies… • Sensitivity:the degree to which a system will respond to a change in climatic conditions • CC impacts: consequences of climate change on natural and human systems • Vulnerability: the degree at which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of climate variation, its sensitivity and adaptive capacity • Adaptation: adjustments in natural or human systems • Adaptation policies: action taken by the governments …aimed at reducing vulnerability to climate change, including climate variability and extremes

12. Useful references and resources for NC4 • The User manual of the NAI guidelines http://unfccc.int/resource/userman_nc.pdf , structure • general approaches/frameworks for assessment • climate change and socio-economic scenarios, if appropriate • different methods and tools for impacts assessment • evaluation of adaptation options and strategies • policy frameworks for adaptation • UNFCCC Compendium on methods and tools to assess impacts, vulnerability and adaptation http://unfccc.int/program/mis/meth/index.html

13. Compendium: Focus and scope • The UNFCCCCompendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change is a web-based resource that provides key information on available frameworks, methods and tools, and their special features. It is designed to assist ALL Parties and other potential users in selecting the most appropriate methodology for assessments of impacts and vulnerability, and preparing for adaptation to climate change about 90 methods: • Approaches and supporting tool kits: framework for entire process of V&A assessment • Cross-cutting and multi-sectoral methods: used to assess specific issues under an approach e.g. CC scenarios, cost analysis, risk assessment, stakeholder approaches, etc. • Sectoral methods: agriculture, coastal zone, water, health, forestry & vegetation • Please visit our web page and make your contribution.

14. Some starting points for discussion • How to make reporting more structured and substantive in accordance with the guidelines? • Assessment • Expected impacts • Vulnerability&adaptation • Action • Adaptation measures and strategies • Cooperation • How to improve reporting on cooperation on adaptation? • e.g. provide summary and focus of cooperation and information on some examples as follows: Title of the activity/project(s); Time frame/Duration; Status; Implementing & executing agency(ies); Regions and/or countries involved; Description/Focus; Intended outputs/outcomes; Contacts/links…

15. Some starting points for discussion (cont) • How to make reporting on the results of comprehensive impact assessment more concise and “readable”(tables, maps) and highlight innovations? • How to improve reporting on action taken on adaptation: e.g relation of the V&A studies to strategy on adaptation, and existing policies? • How to improve reporting on the approaches, methods and tools? How to make it useful for all Parties? e.g. would it be useful to provide information structured as in the compendium: } Description. } Appropriate use/Scope/Key tools. } Key outputs. /Key inputs. } Ease of use./Computer requirements. } Training required/Training offered. } Applications. } Contacts for tools, documentation, and technical assistance • Other?…………………………………