“Beyond Dangerous” The Global Climate & Energy Dilemma - emergency action & integrated solutions -

1. “Beyond Dangerous”The Global Climate & Energy Dilemma- emergency action & integrated solutions - Population, Resources & Climate Change Implications for Australia’s Near Future 2013 Fenner Conference Canberra 11th October 2013 Ian T. Dunlop Director Australia 21 Member, Club of Rome Chairman, Safe Climate Australia Fellow, Centre for Policy Development Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil

2. Where to ? Key Driver World Population- a unique point in history - ? A Full World 1945 – An Empty World BC AD Source: J.E.Cohen, Columbia University, New York, 2005

3. The Challenge Negotiating the Rapids The Rapids of “Creative Destruction” Growth Sustainable ? Collapse Time 2008 ---- 20th Century -- ---- 21st Century -------------------------

4. Global Risk Management Converging Limits Peak Oil & declining EROEI Climate Change All Symptoms of an unsustainable World - and all inextricably linked Water Food Financial & Social Instability

5. Likely loss over time of all ice sheets. No ice sheets on planet = 70 metre sea-level rise Paleoclimate History Climate Likely loss over time of Greenland & West Antarctic ice sheets = 6-7 metre sea-level rise +4C +4C +2C PETM 55 million years ago. Peak Holocene: over last 10,000 years up 1900AD Global average temperature now ~0.6C above peak Holocene 2C of warming: consequence of current level of greenhouse gases 4C of warming: consequence of current government policy commitments Source: Paleoclimate, Energy Imbalances & Milankovic papers, James Hansen et al, GISS NASA 2011.

6. Climate Implications Current policies, if implemented, are likely to result in temperature increase above 40C and produce sea level rise of 70m over time, with catastrophic impact on humanity The “official” objective, of limiting warming to less than 20C above pre-industrial levels, is likely to produce 6-7m sea level rise over time, wiping out major global cities in their current form. Source:informationisbeautiful.net 2013

7. Climate Global Surface Temperature Changes Arctic and West Antarctica are warming fastest Decadal mean surface temperature anomalies relative to base period 1951-1980. Source: update of Hansen et al., GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res.104, 30997-31022, 1999.

8. Climate The evidence - Arctic Sea Ice Volume- accelerating melt – ice free in summer by 2015 ?- ice free all year by 2030 ? Months - actual volume Sea Ice Volume Km3 • Months • forecast • quadratic trend Years 1979 – 2012 actuals Source: Neven et al, PIOMAS, University of Washington 2013

9. Climate The evidence – Greenland Ice Sheet • Insufficient data over a long enough period as yet, but if current trends of an exponential ice mass loss rate are confirmed: • 10 yr doubling time (green line) would lead to 1metre sea level rise by 2067 & 5 metres by 2090 • - 5 yr doubling time (red line) would lead to 1 metre sea level rise by 2045 and 5 metres by 2057 Source: “Update of Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss; Exponential?”, J Hansen & M Sato, GISS, December 2012

10. Potential Climate Tipping Points Climate Source: Schellnhuber, after Lenton et al, PNAS, 2008

11. Climate Implications • We have probably already passed climatic tipping points at the • 0.8oC warming already experienced, let alone the additional 1.2oC • to which we are committed by virtue of historic emissions. • This was not supposed to happen until end-21C • Without emergency action to avert the worst impacts, this is likely • to trigger sooner or later : • irreversible runaway warming globally • - with counter-intuitive regional variations • rapid sea-level rise • permafrost melt leading to increased methane & CO2 emissions • potential slow-down of North Atlantic thermohalineconveyor • with major impact on European climate • severe implications globally The 2oC target is too high. Our inaction is probably locking in these changes today

12. Climate The Full Impact of Climate Change Source: Prof. Tony McMichael AO, ANU

13. Climate Much talk about adaptation to 4oC- what does it really mean ? “In such a 4oC world, the limits for human adaptation are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, while the limits for adaptation for natural systems would largely be exceeded throughout the world” UK Royal Society – January 2011 “What is the difference between a 2oC world and a 4oC world?” “Human Civilisation” “A 4oC temperature increase probably means a global carrying capacity below 1 billion people” Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, June 2011 It's extremely unlikely that we wouldn't have mass death at 40C. If you have got a population of nine billion by 2050 and you hit 40C, 50C or 60C, you might have half a billion people surviving.” Kevin Anderson, Deputy Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, 2009 “There is no certainty that adaptation to a 4oC world is possible. The projected 4oC warming simply must not be allowed to occur” “Turn Down the Heat”, World Bank, 19th November 2012

14. Energy World Energy Outlook 2011 World Primary Energy Demand by Fuel in the New Policies Scenario “ The world is currently following a trajectory which will increase temperature by 6oC relative to today, for which the energy sector is largely responsible. If that is allowed to happen, we are all in trouble” FatihBirol, Chief Economist, International Energy Agency, March 2012 Source: World Energy Outlook, Nov 2011, International Energy Agency

15. Energy Fossil Fuels - Cumulative World Consumption- 3083 billion boe since 1850 Current forecasts estimate the world will use, in 24 years from 2011-35, around 70% of all fossil fuels ever consumed (EIA, IEA Scenarios 2012) This is simply suicidal Source: Grubler :Technology & Global Change, 1998, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012

16. Energy World Energy Outlook 2011- conventional oil peaked in 2005 - World Oil Production by Type in the New Policies Scenario 4 Saudi Arabia’s are required by 2035 to just maintain current supply – highly unlikely, and unconventionals will not solve it – We are now scraping the bottom of the proverbial barrel Source: World Energy Outlook, Nov 2011, International Energy Agency

17. Energy Oil Availability “Official Future” 2013 - abundant resources, but far more expensive • and environmentally problematic Source: IEA - Resources to Reserves 2013

18. What matters is not resources, but sustainable oil flows to market – that is increasingly difficult: Energy • Not discovering new oilfields quickly enough • certainly no giant fields • Data on existing oil reserves is suspect • particularly in the Middle East - “ the paper barrels ” • Many established oil provinces are in decline • depletion rates may be more rapid than officially admitted • Unconventional resources proving difficult to develop • technically, economically & environmentally • Oil producing nations • using more oil domestically & exporting less • conserving for future generations

19. Energy Energy Return on Energy Invested is dropping rapidly - conventional economic growth cannot be sustained EROEI to maintain industrial civilisation is around 10:1 Source: Murphy & Hall 2010

20. Climate & Energy are Inextricably Linked- global carbon budget to avoid dangerous climate change Climate & Energy From 2011 onwards, we can only afford to burn 30% of existing fossil fuel reserves to have a 50% chance of remaining below 2oC temperature increase (and 2oC is too high) 20% is more realistic So why are we continuing to explore for fossil fuels? • and what value should we • place on fossil-fuel companies? Sources: Meinhausen et al, Greenhouse-gas emission targets, Nature, April 2009, Updated from IEA World Energy Outlook November 2012

21. Climate & Energy Carbon Accounting On current trends, the World has 15 years in which to completely decarbonise. Australia, as one of the highest per capita carbon emitters, has 3-5 years to decarbonise. And 2oC is too high! Source: Climate Commission, Australia. 2013

22. Climate & Energy “Official” solutions are not working • Carbon Capture & Storage: - may make a significant contribution to addressing climate change, but not in the time, or to the extent, required. • Other clean coal technologies: - do not achieve the emission reduction required. • Rush from coal to gas: - worsens warming • New high-carbon infrastructure: - locks in emissions for next 50 years and eliminates potential solutions. • Major changes to our energy system: - take decades to implement if we rely on conventional reform processes. • Geo-engineering is now being talked about seriously - but reflects a refusal to face up to reality

23. Policy response Leadership Failure • Lack of honesty in facing the challenges: • Climate • Carbon pricing is a start, but overall policies are woefully inadequate • glaring inconsistencies: • rapidly increasing coal & gas investment while supposedly reducing emissions • continuing fossil-fuel subsidies but lukewarm, variable, support for alternatives • real risks of coal seam & shale gas, & shale oil, not being considered • water & food security implications ignored • Energy • assumption is that our high-carbon future can continue ad infinitum. • security risks ignored • objective is to maximise exports without considering domestic needs • Business • Continued ambivalence on both climate and energy security risk. • Focus is on maintaining the status quo, rather than the opportunities of change. • NGOs • failure to articulate real challenges and demand appropriate action. • Lack of systems-based thinking • No-one is joining the dots

24. Policy Implications Resilience declining Resilience – “the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and re-organise so as to retain essentially the same function, structure & feedbacks – to have the same identity” “How Resilient is Australia” Australia 21, February 2008 Over-extended High-Carbon Growth Catastrophic Breakdown of Carbon Bubble Growth Systemic Breakdown “It is difficult to get a man to understand something if his salary depends on him not understanding it” Upton Sinclair Re-birth Re-organisation Collapse Source: Resilience Alliance, Thomas Homer-Dixon

25. Solutions The Reality • We have solutions, but inaction to date has cut off our options to make the transition to low carbon economies in good order. • Avoiding a 4OC world requires global emissions to peak in 3-4 years, then decline rapidly at around 9% pa. • an unprecedented challenge. • Existing political, corporate & market economy processes will not deliver either: • the required level of technological, social and economic innovation and implementation. • in time, or in substance. • A circuit-breaker is required to move: • from incrementalism to rapid transformation.

26. Solutions An Emergency Response is Essential “Today, in 2013, we face an unavoidably radical future. We either continue with rising emissions, and reap the radical repercussions of severe climate change, or we acknowledge we have a choice and pursue radical emission reductions. No longer is there a non-radical option. Moreover, low-carbon supply technologies cannot deliver the necessary rate of emission reductions – they need to be complemented with rapid, deep and early reductions in energy consumption.” Kevin Anderson, Deputy Director Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK July 2013

27. Framework Solutions • Set out real risks, opportunities & time frame of response • Honest definition of the problem is 90% of the solution • Change context of debate: • from incremental change to emergency response • Build coalition of champions, committed and prepared to speak out: • Community • Activist groups & progressive NGOs • Progressive corporates, insurance & institutional investors • Military • Government – wherever prepared to participate, particularly local. • International institutions: IEA/OECD/UN/IMF/WB • Expand climate & resource scarcity emergency movement • go around conventional politics • Mandate critical policy outcomes (eg realistic emissions targets) • not solutions a priori, nor constrained by “political realism”. • Emphasis on National Security & Competitiveness of Alternatives • Remove subsidies for fossil-fuel industries. • Halt all high carbon investment for export and domestic use. • In the interests of the “Common Good”, set existential issues such as climate change & resource scarcity, outside conventional politics • Handled by system of global governance, but not global “government”

28. Implications for Population Solutions • Australia’s carrying capacity is likely to be severely reduced by natural events, even with emergency action on climate change. • Euphoric plans for population growth must be tempered by a realistic assessment of the Climate/Energy/Water/Food nexus. • There is a total disconnect between current policy development and Australia’s real carrying capacity • No one is joining the dots!

29. We must have business leadership Solutions Major corporations are well aware of the science Business claims to be the expert in risk management Business will have to make it happen But so far business has abrogated responsibility and, in many cases, is being deliberately obstructive • The Directors role is to: • to act honestly, in good faith and to the best of their ability in the interests • of the company in perpetuity • ensure risks are identified and suitable systems put in place to manage • those risks • Climate Change & Resource Scarcity are the biggest risks of all

30. In Conclusion Put simply: business & politics in a 4oC world is not possible The solutions are available, but time is short. We need informal groups of progressive leaders to initiate a new conversation, building coalitions to trigger emergency action. “You already know enough. So do I. It is not the knowledge we lack. What is missing is the courage to understand what we know and draw conclusions.” Sven Lindquist Thank you www.iandunlop.net www.clubofrome.org www.safeclimateaustralia.org thefrogthatjumpedout.blogspot.com itdunlop@ozemail.com.au