The energy challenges of the 21 st century Mastering Technology Enterprise Thun 28 september 2006

1. The energy challenges of the 21st centuryMastering Technology EnterpriseThun28 september 2006 Hans B. (Teddy) Püttgen Professeur - Chaire, Gestion des Systèmes Energétiques Directeur - Centre Interdisciplinaire de l’Energie Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - EPFL et Past-President, IEEE Power Engineering Society

2. Background • The industrial revolution started during the 19th century with the advent of the steam engine burning coal. • The advent of electricity enabled and fueled the economic development during the 20th century. • The information and communications revolution happened during the second half of the 20th century with the broad deployment of the semiconductors. • The transportation revolution also happened during the 20th century enabled by the high energy density of petroleum. • The world has truly become a village - we can communicate enormous amounts of information quasi-instantly and we can travel to all corners of the world within a few hours. The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

3. 21st R & D drivers • By the year 2050, the world’s population will have increased to 9.1 billion an increase of 2.6 billion from the 2005 situation. United Nations – 2004 data. Not only will the population grow dramatically, but its geographical distribution will also evolve: • Europe’s population will decrease to 650 from 730 million at present. • Africa’s population will explode to 1,940 million from 910 at present. • Asia’s population will grow to 5.2 billion from 3.9 billion at present. • By 2050 India is expected to have a population of 1.6 billion surpassing that of China at 1.4 billion. The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

4. 21st R & D drivers - 2 • The end of the petroleum era of man’s presence on earth will come during the 21st century. While we can not predict the exact date, there is broad agreement that the peak production of petroleum will occur some time during the 21st century. At $60-$70 per barrel, the cost of petroleum is close to being the highest it has ever been and will encourage the deployment the more expensive extraction technologies. The recent discovery of the «Jack» oil field in the Gulf of Mexico will increase the US reserves by 50%. The era of inexpensive petroleum is definitely behind us. Indeed, future price structures will be cost driven as opposed to market driven. The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

5. Main R & D Challenges of the 21st century • Availability and broad access of reliable and affordable health services world-wide. While developed countries are rapidly running into a major crisis in terms of the cost of health services, developing countries are struggling to gain access to health services to address immediate and very large scale health crisis. The canyon between the “have” and “have-nots” is widened by the fact that most preventative medical services, including medicines, are brought to market by corporations from developed countries and at costs which are often beyond the means of developing countries. The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

6. Main R & D Challenges of the 21st century - 2 • Production and distribution of food world-wide. At present, developed countries are generally the largest food producers in the world. Increasing standards of living in developed countries, coupled with intensifying competition on the world market, which drives prices down, result in heavy government subsidies provided by developed countries to their farmers. The latest round of WTO negotiations, failed due to significant tensions between poor countries which are demanding that rich countries stop subsidizing their farmers in an effort to “level the playing field”. The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

7. Main R & D Challenges of the 21st century - 3 3. Production, transport and delivery of energy. This is probably the one area where humanity will have to consent to the heaviest investments during the second part of this century. The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

8. Key statistics The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

9. Key statistics- 1 Total Primary Energy Supply – Terra Watt Hours (TWh) 1973 2003 Δ % Oil 31.6*103 42.3*103 34 Coal 17.4*103 30.0*103 72 Natural Gas 11.4*103 26.1*103 129 Hydro 1.3*103 2.7*103 114 Nuclear 0.6*103 8.0*103 1’166 Comb. Renew & Waste 7.9*103 13.3*103 69 Other (wind, solar, geothermal,..) 0.07*103 0.6*103 777 Total 70*103 123*10375 The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

10. Key statistics- 2 Total Primary Energy Supply – Terra Watt Hours (TWh) 1973 2003 Δ % OECD 43.8*103 62.6*103 43 Non-OECD Europe 1.1*103 1.2*103 10 Former USSR 10.1*103 11.2*103 11 Asia 4.3*103 14.3*103 233 China 5.1*103 16.6*103 229 Latin America 2.6*103 5.4*103 108 Africa 2.5*103 6.5*103 165 Middle East 0.8*103 5.3*103 569 Total 70*103 123*103 75 The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

11. Key statistics- 3 Total Energy Consumption – Terra Watt Hours (TWh) 1973 2003 Δ % Oil 24.9*103 36.1*103 45 Coal 7.2*103 6.3*103 -13 Natural Gas 7.8*103 13.9*103 78 Comb. Renew & Waste 7.7*103 11.9*103 55 Electricity 5.1*103 13.6*103 168 Other (wind, solar, geothermal,..) 0.9*1033.0*103 226 Total 53*103 85*10358 The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

12. Key statistics- 4 Total Energy Consumption – Terra Watt Hours (TWh) 1973 2003 Δ % OECD 33.1*103 43.6*103 32 Non-OECD Europe 0.8*103 0.7*103 -5 Former USSR 6.9*103 7.2*103 5 Asia 3.8*103 10.3*103 170 China 4.3*103 10.4*103 143 Latin America 2.0*103 4.2*103108 Africa 2.3*103 4.8*103 115 Middle East 0.5*103 3.4*103 603 Total 53*103 85*103 58 The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

13. Key statistics- 5 Per Capita world-wide energy consumption – million of BTU 1982 2002 Δ % North America 264.9 278.5 5.1 Latin America 37.9 48.8 28.8 Western Europe 127.9 149.0 16.5 Eastern Europe & former USSR 173.1 134.6 -22.2 Middle East 65.1 105.8 62.5 Africa 15.4 15.3 0.0 Asia & Oceania 19.9 33.3 67.3 Total 61.7 65.9 The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

14. Switzerland key statistics - 1 Total energy utilization in 2002: 323 TWh Petroleum 45.6% Gross hydro 14.1% Nuclear fuel 24.1% Natural gas 9.0% Other 7.2% End-use consumption in 2002: 273 TWh Fuel 32.7% Combustibles 25.5% Electricity 22.8% Natural gas 11.4% Other 7.6% The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

15. Switzerland key statistics - 2 End-use distribution in 2002 Transportation 33.9% Households 27.7% Industry 19.7% Services 17.1% Agriculture & other 1.6% Electric power production in 2002 Nuclear 39.5% Hydro - storage 29.1% Hydro – run of the river 27.1% Thermal and other 4.3% The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

16. Energy production The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

17. Present generation mix • To-day, the primary generation technologies are: • Hydro, either run-of-the-river facilities or various types of dams. • Thermal, using either coal, oil or gas. • Nuclear. • The present generation mix already is: • Distributed. • Significantly renewable. The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

18. Hydro China: Three Grorges: 19GW New plant under construction: 40GW Africa – Congo river Planned - Grand Inga: 40GW The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

19. Installed capacity United States Canada Brazil China Japan Russia Percentage of production Norway 98% Brazil 84% Venezuela 66% Canada 58% Russia 17% China 15% Largest producers Canada Brazil United States China Russia Norway Japan India France Venezuela Hydro The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

20. Hydro • Fully renewable and low ecological impact. • In industrialized countries, almost all feasible sites have been developed – the potential incremental capacity is very low. The only potential incremental energy capacity is by way of conversion of existing storage facilities to pumped-storage. The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

21. Hydro • Very significant incremental capacities are available in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Development will come at heavy ecological and societal impacts. Some of the ecological impact will go beyond regional to become world-wide. ISSUE:World-wide environmental and ecological public policy – major research needed. The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

22. Largest exporters Australia Indonesia China South Africa Russia Columbia Largest importers Japan Korea Taiwan Germany UK India Largest producers China United States India Australia South Africa Russia Indonesia Poland Kazakhstan Ukraine Fossil fuels - coal The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

23. Fossil Fuel - Coal • Heavy environmental impact. • Technologies are available to significantly mitigate the environmental impact; they are also very expensive to implement & operate. • The large scale deployment of CO2 sequestration and utilization technologies are starting to become feasible ISSUES:Can industrialized countries impose such technologies on emerging countries? Potential of • Coal liquefaction - gazeification • Combined energy use The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

24. Largest exporters Saudi Arabia Russia Norway Iran Nigeria Venezuela Largest importers United States Japan Korea Germany Italy Chine Largest producers Saudi Arabia Russia United States Iran Mexico Chine Venezuela Norway Canada Nigeria Fossil fuels - petroleum The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

25. Fossil Fuel - Oil • The “lust” of industrialized countries for oil is the major reason for the increasing tensions world wide. • There is broad agreement that the production of oil will peak sometime during the 21st century. ISSUES:When do we start focusing on the use of carbon as a material as opposed to as fuel? What new extraction technologies become feasible as the price per barrel increases? Additional reserves available using Ehanced Oil Recovery (EOR) techniques – using CO2 well injections? What is the potential of oil-shales? The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

26. Largest exporters Russia Canada Norway Algeria Netherlands Turkmenistan Largest importers United States Germany Japan Italy Ukraine France Largest Producers Russia United States Canada UK Algeria Netherlands Norway Iran Indonasia Saudi Arabia Fossil fuels – natural gas The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

27. Fossil fuels – natural gas • Environmentally more friendly. • Transportation is technologically “cumbersome” and requires heavy infrastructures. • Heavy investments in distribution infrastructures are under way in Switzerland. ISSUE:Will we be able to continue to build liquid gas harbor sites close to heavy consumption centers? Political impact of the new producers on the international scene? The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

28. Nuclear • 441 power plants are under operation in 31 countries • 136 in Western Europe – 59 in France • 128 in North America – 104 in the United States • 89 in Asia • 70 in the former USSR and Eastern Europe • 16 in India and Pakistan • 2 in Africa • 16% of the world-wide electricity production • 80% in France • 28% in Germany • 20% in the United States • Less than 5% in China The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

29. Nuclear • Heavy legacy impact. • Public policies in industrialized countries have rendered construction of new facilities unrealistic. • The pebble bed technology could provide a solution to build highly modular plants. • Countries with emerging economies want to construct nuclear power plants using existing technologies. ISSUE:How can industrialized countries “monitor” suc developments? When and where will the next nuclear power plant be built in the United States, in Switzerland, in Germany, ….. The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

30. Hydro, Fossil & Nuclear • How do we site the new facilities? What organization makes the decision and then assumes it? • The financing of large generation facilities have reached a scale often beyond the capabilities of the private sector. • The construction and operation of the required transmission systems are increasingly in “limbo”. China is adding 60 000 MW per year of new electric power generation capacity. Some forecasts state that in 20 years we will go from 3 700 GW to 6 000 GW of installed electricity generation capacity. The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

31. Bio-Fuel • Bio-fuels have an enormous potential world-wide. Brazil is the leading implementation country. • Regions with strong agriculture and emerging economies can potentially leverage their position by exporting finished product. • The transportation industry must embrace bio-fuels. • The base crop used must be adapted to regional conditions. • Competition with food production must be avoided. • Industrialized countries must settle their national subsidy policies as well as their import regulations. The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

32. Bio-Fuel A labeling-certification process, taking ecological, fair trade issues, labor conditions, and grey energy contents into account, must be broadly agreed upon and implemented before significant market penetration will occur. The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

33. Alternative GenerationTechnologies Renewable • Solar, photovoltaic or thermal • Wind • Geothermal • Ocean Non-renewable • Internal combustion engine, ICE • Combined cycle • Combustion turbine • Micro-turbines • Fuel cell The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

34. Renewables - Photovoltaïc Photovoltaic installation – 350 kW The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

35. Renewables - Photovoltaïc • Environmentally very friendly. • Installed capacities remain limited but growth is strong: 1 GW per year or 30-50% per year. • Capacity costs will remain high. $5,000 / installed kW • The most appropriate short-term application might be in conjunction with other technologies such as Fuel Cells. Photovoltaics does not have the potential to displace the need for installed capacity – it may only displace energy production thereby rendering existing fossil-fueled plants more expensive to operate. The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

36. Renewables - Wind The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

37. Renewables - Wind • Very rapid market penetration during past years – 10GW growth per year / 10-30% per year. • 59,000 MW of installed capacity world-wide. • 18,500 MW in Germany • 10,000 MW in Spain • 9,000 MW in the United States • Large manufacturers, such as Siemens and GE are heavy market participants. The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

38. Renewables - Wind • Perceived as environmentally very friendly. • Significant noise pollution: 60 dB @ 30 m. • The installed capacity per machine is increasing – 3MW. • The capacity cost is attractive – under $2,000/kW • Installation of large wind farms is attractive but technically not easy. Wind power does not have the potential to displace the need for installed capacity – it may only displace energy production thereby rendering existing fossil-fueled plants more expensive to operate. Should be implemented in conjunction with large storage systems – pumped hydro? The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

39. Renewables - Geothermal • The geothermal energy resources are virtually limitless. • It is environmentally friendly. • Geothermal energy can be readily controlled as required for deployment within an integrated energy supply chain. • It can be installed for residential, commercial and industrial facilities. • Currently, a large demonstration site is under construction in Basel – drillling t0 5 000 m is under way under the Rhine. • Large-scale electricity production has been on-going for decades in the Geysers area in California, for example. The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

40. Renewables - Geothermal The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

41. Alternative sources – Fuel cells 200 kW fuel cell from United Technologies for the combined production of electricity and heat. The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

42. Alternative sources – Fuel cells • Perceived as environmentally very friendly. • Requires local hydrogen storage or reformer installation. • The installed capacities range from a few tens of kW to a few tens of MW. • The capacity costs are already compatible with large scale deployment: $1,000 - $5,000 per kW. Fuel cells can and will contribute to the installed capacity mix. ISSUE:Viability of the Hydrogen economy – large scale implementation without nuclear questionable. The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

43. Alternative sources – Microturbines 30 kW Microturbine The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

44. Alternative sources – Microturbines • Not yet on the radar screen as far as public perception is concerned. • Installed capacities range from 1 few tens of kW to a few MW. Individual units can be combined together to create larger capacities. • Small physical size provides for convenient installation within buildings. • Capital costs: $300 – $1,400 per kW. Micro Turbines can and will contribute to the installed capacity mix – on a localized basis. The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

45. Fusion - Energy source of the 22nd century Dream of generating energy from Deuterium (omnipresent in water) and Tritium (from Lithium – tens of thousands of years of reserves). Tokamak TCV at CRPP - EPFL The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

46. Fusion - Energy source of the 22nd century • Several major R&D efforts are on-going: • ITER at Cadarache iun France • Broader approach, in Japan • University centers • EPFL at Centre de Recherch pour la Physique des Plasma • TU Münich at Garching • Joint European Torus – JET, in the UK • Many difficult hurdles must still be overcome before broad commercial deployment will be possible. • Very high temperatures required: 100 M 0C • Materials resistance over longer time: radiation and temperature. • Plasma heating and containment technologies The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

47. End use The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

48. Swiss vision on the end-use side • 2 000 Watt society. The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

49. 2 000 Watt society • Three cities are participating in pilot programs: • Basel • Zürich • Lucern • The main R&D focus is on: • Building technologies, including natural light utilization for lighting purposes. • Transportation technologies • Water management, especially within commercial and retail facilities. • Pro-active implementation of new codes and public policies The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century

50. Evolution of the 2 000 Watt society The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century