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OpenSHA A Developing, Distributed Community-Modeling Environment for Seismic Hazard Analysis

OpenSHA A Developing, Distributed Community-Modeling Environment for Seismic Hazard Analysis. GOAL: A general framework where any arbitrarily complex (e.g., physics based) rupture-forecast or ground-motion model can “plug in” for analysis without having to change what’s being plugged into.

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OpenSHA A Developing, Distributed Community-Modeling Environment for Seismic Hazard Analysis

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  1. OpenSHAA Developing, DistributedCommunity-Modeling Environment for Seismic Hazard Analysis GOAL: A general framework where any arbitrarily complex (e.g., physics based) rupture-forecast or ground-motion model can “plug in” for analysis without having to change what’s being plugged into.

  2. OpenSHA Web Site: www.OpenSHA.org SHA Framework: SRL submission (Field, Jordan, & Cornell) Design Evaluation: SCEC Implementation Interface Code Development : Ned Field, Sid Hellman, Steve Rock, Nitin Gupta, & Vipin Gupta Validation: PEER Working-Group Test Cases

  3. OpenSHA Time Span Desired output is the probability that something of concern will happen over a specified time span Earthquake- Rupture Forecast Generates Rupture Sources IM Rupn,i Site Type, Level Each Source has N Earthquake Ruptures Sourcei Intensity-Measure Relationship Probability of occurrence

  4. OpenSHA • Intensity-Measure Type/Level • a specification of what the analyst (e.g., engineer) is worried about Time Span Earthquake- Rupture Forecast Generates Rupture Sources IM Rupn,i Site Type, Level Each Source has N Earthquake Ruptures Sourcei Intensity-Measure Relationship Probability of occurrence

  5. OpenSHA • Site&Prob. Eqk Rupture • The two main physical objects used in the analysis Time Span Earthquake- Rupture Forecast Generates Rupture Sources IM Rupn,i Site Type, Level Each Source has N Earthquake Ruptures Sourcei Intensity-Measure Relationship Probability of occurrence

  6. OpenSHA • Eqk Rupture Forecast • One of the two main model components (A variety being developed in RELM). Time Span Earthquake- Rupture Forecast Generates Rupture Sources IM Rupn,i Site Type, Level Each Source has N Earthquake Ruptures Sourcei Intensity-Measure Relationship Probability of occurrence

  7. OpenSHA • Intensity-Measure Relationship • The other major model component (also a variety available or being developed). Time Span Earthquake- Rupture Forecast Generates Rupture Sources IM Rupn,i Site Type, Level Each Source has N Earthquake Ruptures Sourcei Intensity-Measure Relationship Probability of occurrence

  8. A Community-Modeling Environment for Seismic Hazard Analysis Figure 1 Time Span OpenSHA Rupturen,i Magnitude Probability Ave. Rake Rup. Surface Hypocenter Param. List Earthquake- Rupture Forecast Source1 Source2 Sourcei SourceI Site Location List of Site- Related Parameters Intensity Measure Type & Level (IMT & IML) … … Sourcei Rupture1,i Rupture2,i Rupturen,i RuptureN,i Intensity-Measure Relationship List of Supported Intensity-Measure Types List of Site-Related Independent Parameters … … Rupture probability Conditional probability of exceedance

  9. Various IMR types (subclasses) Classic IMRs Gaussian dist. is assumed; mean and std. dev. computed from various parameters AKA: “attenuation relationship” IMT, IML(s) Rupture Site(s) Multi-Site IMRs compute joint prob. of exceeding IML(s) at multiple sites Intensity-Measure Relationship List of Supported IMTs List of Site-Related Ind. Params Vector IMRs compute joint prob. of exceeding multiple IMLs Simulation IMRs exceed. prob. computed using a suite of synthetic seismograms

  10. User Perspective: Earthquake- Rupture Forecast List of Adjustable Parameters Intensity-Measure Relationship List of Supported Intensity-Measure Types List of Site-Related Independent Parameters Site Location List of Site- Related Parameters Intensity Measure Type & Level (IMT & IML) Time Span Number-Crunching Machine Prob(IMT≥IML)

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